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2025 Valero Texas Open Final Thoughts

Weather



I would love to sit here and tell you the weather won’t be a factor this week, as I am incredibly tired of the discourse as well. Yet unfortunately, that wouldn’t be doing an honest job, as this forecast absolutely suggests that one wave will benefit more than the other, so let’s address it. Thursday paints a much more coherent picture than Friday, and it’s hard for me to look at that forecast and not suggest that being on the golf course in the afternoon is preferred. We are seeing both the highest wind gusts between 8:00 and 11:00 AM, as well as the potential for some rain. Thursday afternoon, however, appears to definitively be the best time to be on the golf course, at least in the first two days. Friday is so much more of a crapshoot, and I would be willing to field any argument about what the best time is to be on the course in round two. Any time there is the potential for delays, I try to identify the one true variable I can predict with confidence, which remains Thursday afternoon will be better than Thursday morning. Your guess is as good as mine on Friday.


Holding the strong opinion that Thursday PM will see at least a 0.25-shot edge than Thursday AM, 65% of my pool has a Thursday PM tee time. This worked for me well last week, where I virtually ignored the weather at the top of the slate while allowing it to make a significant impact on my decisions at the bottom. There are still a few AM/PM players at the bottom that I am riding with confidence, but I also swapped out players like Chris Kirk and Andrew Putnam for Charley Hoffman and Mac Meissner solely to get more exposure to players with a Thursday PM tee time. My personal opinion on how you should play it? Don’t worry about the tee time of your studs and play the best course fits, yet if you are looking for a tie-break at the bottom, I would certainly attempt to get as much exposure to Thursday PM players with confidence, as the only conclusion I can confidently come to from looking at this forecast is that players with a Thursday afternoon tee time will play in easier conditions than those with a Thursday morning tee time.


Winning Score Prediction: -15

Scoring Average: +0.2

 

Core


Patrick Cantlay, $10,200 (AM/PM): I continue to be a long-term believer in Patrick Cantlay’s talent, and he remains the only player I currently have a future on to win the Masters. I am hoping with every bone in my body that he contends this week and at least sniffs some shots of consequence. The warning signs that Cantlay is a lot closer to being a top-five player in the world are all there. He is coming off a 12th-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship where he gained four strokes off the tee and 2.4 strokes on approach. Most encouraging is the fact that his approach play appears to be fully back, as Cantlay has now gained over two strokes on approach in four straight starts. I firmly believe that he is in strong enough approach form right now to not only win this tournament but also make some noise next week as well. The big red flag for me is the lack of course history, but lest we not forget that Cantlay finished runner-up at TPC Scottsdale in his first-ever appearance there, another golf course that is very similarly aesthetically and architecturally to TPC San Antonio. Cantlay is also the No. 1 player in this field at TPC Summerlin, my other strongest comp course of the week. While I am not in love with the tee time either, I do not believe for one second that he should be lower owned than Corey Conners or possesses less of a chance to win this event than the Canadian. Maybe Conners’ floor via the course history is a touch higher, but I still believe Cantlay is the better overall talent and is more likely to cross the finish line on the strength of his short game and putting, which continue to trend positively as well. Hopefully Cantlay season is upon us, and Disgusting Brother No. 2 is in store for a big Spring and Summer.


Jordan Spieth, $9,700 (PM/AM): Let it be known, I am not a Jordan Spieth guy AT ALL. In fact, this is the first time he has been in my pool in a year, and this might be my first time coring him in my three-year history of doing this. So why the love this week? Well, there are key narratives that stand out to me about TPC San Antonio. Number one, the easiest roadmap to success is through spike approach play. Great driving, short game, and putting are all ancillary skills. More often than not, this event is won with elite approach play, and Spieth is coming off his best approach week of the season at the Valspar. Number two, this golf course ranks top-five in the PGA Tour in terms of course history correlation. I have many theories on why this is the case, but at the end of the day, it’s simply a spot where certain players are able to get comfortable at and contend at year after year regardless of incoming form. Spieth has contended here in far worse form than he is in now, and four top-10 finishes and a victory in eight appearances lead me to believe that his floor is a hell of a lot higher at this specific golf course than his overall game log would suggest in 2025. The fact that he has a Thursday afternoon tee time and possesses the perfect opportunity to get off to a hot start is an added bonus. Two things can be true here. I largely believe that Spieth is one of the most over-valued and overrated players of the last five years, and I have certainly made a pretty penny fading him on the basis of this belief. With that being said, I will largely take him at his word that he is playing a lot better than his results would suggest, and he is playing with a lot of confidence and has control over his golf ball on approach. Not only do the stats back this up, but a strong performance at the Valero to increase the hype at Augusta has been a yearly occurrence, and I have little reason to believe we are not in store for a similar outcome this week.


Maverick McNealy, $8,100 (PM/AM): Maverick McNealy has steadily grown on me as the week has progressed. Does his tee time play a role in this? Absolutely, and if all things were equal with the weather, I would probably use this spot for Si Woo Kim. With that being said, Maverick McNealy has slowly developed this season into one of the better approach players on Tour, and after a lackluster Florida swing where we faded at ease, McNealy’s ball-striking bounced back in a big way at Houston, as he gained two strokes off the tee and 3.2 strokes on approach. Now he returns to a golf course where he has at least seen and proven his ball-striking chops on in the past. I would love for the course history to be a little stronger than a 35th and 58th, but McNealy actually gained significantly off the tee and on approach in both appearances, and we saw the putter surprisingly let him down. McNealy remains one of the best long-term Poa Trivialis putters in this field, and I have every reason to believe that we will experience some positive regression on the greens this week.


Tom Hoge, $7,400 (PM/AM): The Tom Hoge case is not a difficult one to comprehend. Texas ties? Check. Good course history? Check. Elite long-term approach play? Check. Recent spike approach play? Also check. Hoge is coming off a third-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship where he charged up the leaderboard on Sunday on the back of one of his best approach performances of his career. Hoge gained over nine strokes on approach at TPC Sawgrass, and if that upside exists for him in that field, I strongly believe that he is a good-enough iron player to win this tournament on the back of his approach play alone. We were on him for lone victory at Pebble Beach, another pure, second-shot, spike approach golf course, and while he was one of the last men off my betting card this week, I have every reason to believe he is more than capable of breaking the slate this week on the sole back of his greatest weapon.

 

Pool


  • Tommy Fleetwood, $10,700 (AM/PM)

  • Patrick Cantlay, $10,200 (AM/PM)

  • Hideki Matsuyama, $9,900 (PM/AM)

  • Jordan Spieth, $9,700 (PM/AM)

  • Si Woo Kim, $8,700 (AM/PM)

  • Maverick McNealy, $8,100 (PM/AM)

  • Ben Griffin, $7,900 (PM/AM)

  • Gary Woodland, $7,800 (PM/AM)

  • Kurt Kitayama, $7,600 (PM/AM)

  • Andrew Novak, $7,500 (PM/AM)

  • Tom Hoge, $7,400 (PM/AM)

  • Charley Hoffman, $7,400 (PM/AM)

  • Eric Cole, $7,200 (AM/PM)

  • Mac Meissner, $7,100 (PM/AM)

  • Victor Perez, $7,100 (PM/AM)

  • Matthias Schmid, $7,000 (AM/PM)

  • Chan Kim, $7,000 (AM/PM)

  • Ryo Hisatsune, $7,000 (AM/PM)

  • Doug Ghim, $7,000 (PM/AM)

  • Greyson Sigg, $6,800 (PM/AM)

 

Betting Card

 

Outrights

  • Patrick Cantlay (19/1) (0.37U) (win: 7.2) Bet365

  • Si Woo Kim (37/1) (0.2U) (win: 7.4) Bet365

  • Daniel Berger (40/1) (0.185U) (win: 7.4) FanDuel

  • Bud Cauley (55/1) (0.135U) (win: 7.4) FanDuel

  • Rico Hoey (65/1) (0.11U) (win: 7.2) Bet365

 

Matchups (1U each)

  • Rico Hoey (-105) over Ryan Fox

 

Top 20s

  • Patrick Cantlay (+100) (1U) DK

  • Akshay Bhatia (+110) (1U) Bet365

  • Daniel Berger (+140) (1U) Bet365

  • Si Woo Kim (+150) (1U) Bet365

  • Bud Cauley (+200) (0.5U) Bet365

  • Lee Hodges (+220) (0.5U) DK

 

LIV Miami

 

Outrights

  • Jon Rahm (6/1) (1U) (win: 6) FD

 

2024-2025

Outrights: -20.45U

Matchups: +7.96U

Positionals: -0.825

Total: -13.315U

 

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI

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