Weather What’s conclusive from here is that the afternoon on both days should be more challenging than the morning, but given there are no staggered tee times, I wouldn’t argue for any sort of wave edge. The bigger story here is the firmness of this golf course and the revived undulation and bounciness of the new greens. This leads me to place an increased emphasis on overall APP play and ARG play. Putting might be more challenging this year as well, but the playing field is

Weather For a full weather briefly, I would highly encourage you to check out the premium show that Steve and I did last night. Hopefully it was the perfect balance of fun and informative, and if you enjoyed it, we will absolutely bring it back for every major. Now that we have a super forecast, there are two key points that I really want to highlight. First, Thursday morning might be the most difficult conditions that players experience all week. If the scoring average isn’t

Weather This is certainly one of the more extreme forecasts I’ve seen in quite some time, and especially after far too of an aggressive move at Houston last week on the over, I’m taking a more conservative approach this week. The potential for rain and delays loom large here, and Sunday looks particularly awful from a rain perspective, so let’s focus on what we do know and can control, which is the super forecast across Thursday and Friday. To me, this looks like AM/PM should

Weather I don’t see a whole lot here and I would say I’m a bit surprised that Datagolf is reflecting a wave edge for AM/PM. I would probably still lean towards AM/PM, but the slight wind gusts that are picking up on Thursday afternoon do not even begin under 5:00 PM when that entire wave is finishing their round anyway. I don’t think there is much there to be honest. I would much rather attack the winning score prop, which Steve and I have both bet and comment on the fact tha

Weather There’s a lot of good news in this weather report. The early week rain was not half as significant as the early forecast displayed, and the course should be just as firm as we have seen over the last couple years at this event. Secondly, Thursday and Friday mornings look near identical from a wind standpoint, and while Friday afternoon looks a touch easier than Thursday afternoon, I would not say the difference is strong enough for me to advocate for a wave advantage.

Weather There has been much discussion about the weather this week and I would absolutely say that this is one of the most variable forecasts I have seen in awhile, at an even that is already prone to unforeseen weather circumstances. The prevailing narrative this week has been that AM/PM has an advantage, and I would agree with that for the most part, mainly because Friday morning looks awful. Yet what somewhat balances that out is that Thursday morning has extreme wind gust

Weather To me, these look like fairly straightforward Bay Hill conditions that would fall in line with the scoring average we have seen over the last three years. Last year, we saw a brutal day one, followed by an overall scoring average of close to around even par. I would not expect any of the days to be brutal, but even par would surprise me as well. Bay Hill has seen very little rain both during tournament week, but that could be offset with the friendlier wind direction

Weather Okay, a lot to digest this week and a couple important variables to consider. Things we know: The golf course is going to be pillow soft It’s going to be cold, although it really does start to warm up over the weekend Thursday looks to be the most precarious day in terms of wind and rain, but the rain should stop within two hours of players’ tee times Of course, to really spice things up, the HRRR forecast that Steve cites is almost showing the opposite, with the wind

Weather Okay, there are a couple important pieces to talk about here. First things first, I think the golf course will play very easy Thursday and Friday. Steve seems to be in agreement there, and I would absolutely co-sign a blanket strategy of targeting unders on Thursday and Friday. Secondly, Spyglass Hill generally plays a stroke harder per round than Pebble Beach, although the gap last year was only -0.14. We have the difference between Pebble and Spyglass at -0.4 this y

Weather There has been a lot of commotion about the weather this week and here is where I would say I stand. The weather on Thursday morning appears to be brutal, but not quite brutal enough for there to be a stoppage in play. We are talking 40 mph wind guests consistently from 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM. Not only is that the entire morning wave, but it is also the beginning part of the round for the afternoon wave as well. The gusts really begin to subside around 2:00 PM, but they a

At Doha Golf Club, the profile that we are primarily looking for is a combination of approach play and putting. Distance has been a help, and you need to avoid the big miss into the desert, but driving hasn’t been a primary separator at the top of the leaderboard. We have the same big four at the top of the odds board as last week, but while Patrick Reed and Daniel Hillier were contending for victory, Jayden Schaper and Angel Ayora were struggling down the field. A month into

Weather Without a doubt, this will be an easier Torrey Pines than we typically see. With that being said, this will not be a soft golf course. We had two weeks of really bad rain in Southern California at the beginning of January, but by now, things have really dried out. This means that the greens and fairways will be firmer, but we also usually see some wind in the forecast at Torrey, and the combination of zero wind and warm temperatures should offset the corresponding fir

With most of the big names heading back to America, this is a fairly weak event, but that means it’s wide open beyond the four favorites at the top of the board. At the Royal Golf Club, the profile that we are primarily looking for is a combination of iron play and distance. Driving accuracy is somewhat irrelevant, and while paspalum putting is a bonus, players have been able to contend and even win without putting well. Players with a good history at the comp courses of Al H

Weather Dome golf at its finest. There is a touch of rain overnight on Friday that could make scoring conditions on Saturday a touch easier across the board, yet I am not concerned this week about an optimal course rotation. I do expect the Stadium Course to play a quarter of a stroke easier this year now that the greens have had 12 months to settle, but it still should play at least 2.5 strokes easier than the other two courses. Scoring Average Prediction: Stadium Course: -1

At the Emirates Golf Club, the profile that we are primarily looking for is an elite driver of the golf ball. Someone who could finish in the top five in strokes gained off the tee on a course that rewards length and has narrow fairways with thick enough rough. A good secondary skill to have is iron play, predominantly from 150-225 yards as 14 of the 18 holes feature an approach from this range. Good Bermuda putting is helpful, but in general short game and putting have less

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Weather Nothing really to see here. I’m expecting some absolutely pristine conditions and a scoring average that falls more in line with 2023 than 2024. Scoring Average: -2.0 Winning Score: -24   Core Michael Thorbjornsen, $10,200: I don’t love the ownership here, but Thor is a significantly stronger option than Harris English, and hopefully we get a redux of Ludvig’s breakthrough 2023 win. Thor has been circling the leaderboard all Fall swing with some incredible ball-striki

Weather This would mark our first official “obvious” wave edge of the Fall swing, but it certainly does not come without risk. A simple glance at the weather displays that PM/AM should be significantly advantaged, as Thursday AM looks borderline unplayable. I have made multiple swaps in my pool to get more exposure to the PM/AM wave, and currently 65% of my pool (13/20) are in the PM/AM wave. The only reason that I would not place more emphasis on the PM/AM wave are a number

Weather Nothing to see here. Expect standard scoring conditions, probably in the -2.5 to -3 range, with a winning score of -23 to -25. No wave advantage worth pursuing.   Core   Ben Griffin, $10,500: I know that Ben Griffin is the highest owned and highest priced player on the slate, which has been a death sentence during the Fall swing, but that changes this week. Griffin is the best player in this field by a healthy margin, and he compares quite favorably to a J.J. Spaun bo

I suppose you could make a case here for AM/PM based on the brief two-hour stretch of winds on Thursday afternoon, but I wouldn’t make any key decisions based on that two hour window. The scoring should fall similarly to last year, and I would not be surprised if we saw close to a 24-under winner on a soft-ish resort course, although the mornings will be on the colder side. Scoring Average Prediction: -2.0 Winning Score: -24   Core Michael Thorbjornsen, $10,000: While I could