Weather There has been much discussion about the weather this week and I would absolutely say that this is one of the most variable forecasts I have seen in awhile, at an even that is already prone to unforeseen weather circumstances. The prevailing narrative this week has been that AM/PM has an advantage, and I would agree with that for the most part, mainly because Friday morning looks awful. Yet what somewhat balances that out is that Thursday morning has extreme wind gust

Former Winners   2025: Rory McIlroy (-12) over J.J. Spaun (-12) (Playoff) Winner Odds: McIlroy (11/1) Scoring Average: +0.65 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20) over Xander Schauffele (-19) Winner Odds: Scheffler (+550) Scoring Average: -0.72 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17) over Tyrrell Hatton (-12) Winner Odds: Scheffler (10/1) Scoring Average: +0.07 2022: Cameron Smith (-13) over Anirban Lahiri (-12) Winner Odds: Smith (33/1) Scoring Average: +0.35 2021: Justin Thomas (-14) over Le

General Notes/Rounds 1-3 I will group these together because the format is essentially the same: all you need is scoring birdies, streaks, avoiding bogeys, which is essentially the same as classic from a formatting standpoint for the first 3 rounds. You can talk to players who believe the edge is bigger in these rounds. For some, that may be true. I don’t necessarily see it that way. Round 1 in particular I don’t love at all unless there is a significant wave advantage and ra

Weather To me, these look like fairly straightforward Bay Hill conditions that would fall in line with the scoring average we have seen over the last three years. Last year, we saw a brutal day one, followed by an overall scoring average of close to around even par. I would not expect any of the days to be brutal, but even par would surprise me as well. Bay Hill has seen very little rain both during tournament week, but that could be offset with the friendlier wind direction

Scottie rules If Scottie, then no Min Woo Lee/Scott/Bridgeman/Coody/Nicolai H/Ryan G If Scottie, then maximum 1 7K player (would do this if I did not set rule 1) If Scottie, then at least 2 8K players in the lineup If Scottie, then at least 3 6K players in the lineup Saw this get third in a contest we just 2 wks ago; don’t love it as much this wk If Scottie, then at least 1 player that is above average salary I argue if I played Scottie, I would want this level of aggression

We end the African swing with the Joburg Open which is held at Houghton Golf Club for the fourth season in a row. The first two times were held at the beginning of the wrap-around season in November 2022 and 2023, before last year’s move to March (with no event in 2024 as part of the date change). Houghton is a 7,241 yard par 70 that plays shorter due to being at an altitude of 5,500 feet which has an impact of around 6-7%. It is a tree-lined parkland style golf course with n

Former Winners   2025: Russell Henley (-11) over Collin Morikawa (-10) Winner Odds: Henley (45/1) Scoring Average: +0.43 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15) over Wyndham Clark (-10) Winner Odds: Scheffler (+650) Scoring Average: +0.37 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9) over Rory McIlroy, Harris English (-8) Winner Odds: Kitayama (250/1) Scoring Average: +0.61 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5) over Billy Horschel (-4) Winner Odds: Scheffler (18/1) Scoring Average: +2.04 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-1

Weather Although I had initially thought that AM/PM would see a quarter stroke edge, I would almost flip that given Steve’s updated weather predictions and the super forecast. This largely stems from the fact that the difference between Friday AM and Friday PM (in terms of the morning being easier) appears much easier to bank on than the difference between Thursday AM and Thursday PM. On Thursday morning, players are still going to have to play through a drizzle and see wind

Former Winners   2025: Joe Highsmith (-19) over Jacob Bridgeman, J.J. Spaun (-17) Scoring Average: -1.62 Winner Odds: Highsmith (110/1) 2024: Austin Eckroat (-17) over Min Woo Lee, Erik Van Rooyen (-14) Scoring Average: -1.09 Winner Odds: Eckroat (130/1) 2023: Chris Kirk (-14) over Eric Cole (-14) Scoring Average: +0.21 Winner Odds: Kirk (30/1) 2022: Sepp Straka (-10) over Shane Lowry (-9) Scoring Average: +1.3 Winner Odds: Straka (130/1) 2021: Matt Jones (-12) over Brandon H

Course Introduction The South African Open tends to move around to different courses and this year’s edition is being held at Stellenbosch Golf Club on the Western Cape. Stellenbosch is a 7,213 yard par 70 parkland course with Kikuyu fairways and small flat Bentgrass greens. Most of the fairways are treelined and there are some out-of-bounds fences in play, but overall it is not a penal golf course. The last time Stellenbosch hosted the SA Open was in 1999 as a par 71 when Da

Weather Okay, a lot to digest this week and a couple important variables to consider. Things we know: The golf course is going to be pillow soft It’s going to be cold, although it really does start to warm up over the weekend Thursday looks to be the most precarious day in terms of wind and rain, but the rain should stop within two hours of players’ tee times Of course, to really spice things up, the HRRR forecast that Steve cites is almost showing the opposite, with the wind

The DPWT returns after a week off with the Magical Kenya Open held at Karen Country Club. The Kenya Open was elevated to a European Tour event in 2019, with the 2019 and 2021 (2020 was cancelled due to Covid) events held at Karen before moving to Muthaiga up until last year. In addition to these two events, Karen also hosted an extra event in 2021. The Kenya Savannah Classic which was played the week after Karen hosted the Kenya Open as a part of Covid rescheduling to fill ev

Former Winners 2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17) over Luke List, Will Zalatoris (-14) Scoring Average: -0.92 Winner Odds: Matsuyama (75/1) 2023: Jon Rahm (-17) over Max Homa (-15)   Scoring Average: -0.09 Winner Odds: Rahm (+750) 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19) over Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young (-17) Scoring Average: -0.6 Winner Odds: Niemann (60/1) 2021: Max Homa (-12) over Tony Finau (-12) Scoring Average: +0.35 Winner Odds: Homa (65/1) 2020: Adam Scott (-11) over Matt Kuchar, Sun

Weather Okay, there are a couple important pieces to talk about here. First things first, I think the golf course will play very easy Thursday and Friday. Steve seems to be in agreement there, and I would absolutely co-sign a blanket strategy of targeting unders on Thursday and Friday. Secondly, Spyglass Hill generally plays a stroke harder per round than Pebble Beach, although the gap last year was only -0.14. We have the difference between Pebble and Spyglass at -0.4 this y

I would like to get some thoughts out behind the paywall on some evergreen DFS topics that people can reference at any time of the year. I am open to any other topic ideas from other members so the DMs are open. I owe a big part of that success that I have experienced in the last few years in large part to satellite contests, so that’s today’s topic. It can be an intimidating entry point, but it can pay MASSIVE dividends and I think it is largely applicable to the many player

Former Winners   2025: Rory McIlroy (-21) over Shane Lowry (-19) Winner Odds: McIlroy (12/1) Pebble Beach: -2.15 Spyglass Hill: -2.01 2024: Wyndham Clark (-17) over Ludvig Aberg (-16) (3 Rounds) Winner Odds: Clark (75/1) Pebble Beach: -2.18 Spyglass Hill: -1.42 2023: Justin Rose (-18) over Brendon Todd, Brandon Wu (-15) Winner Odds: Rose (33/1) Pebble Beach: -0.38 Spyglass Hill: +0.8 2022: Tom Hoge (-19) over Jordan Spieth (-17) Winner Odds: Hoge (60/1) Pebble Beach: -1.3 Spy

Weather There has been a lot of commotion about the weather this week and here is where I would say I stand. The weather on Thursday morning appears to be brutal, but not quite brutal enough for there to be a stoppage in play. We are talking 40 mph wind guests consistently from 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM. Not only is that the entire morning wave, but it is also the beginning part of the round for the afternoon wave as well. The gusts really begin to subside around 2:00 PM, but they a

At Doha Golf Club, the profile that we are primarily looking for is a combination of approach play and putting. Distance has been a help, and you need to avoid the big miss into the desert, but driving hasn’t been a primary separator at the top of the leaderboard. We have the same big four at the top of the odds board as last week, but while Patrick Reed and Daniel Hillier were contending for victory, Jayden Schaper and Angel Ayora were struggling down the field. A month into

Former Winners   2025: Thomas Detry (-24) (DG: 61) over Daniel Berger, Michael Kim (-17)   Winner Odds: Detry (95/1) Scoring Average: -1.09 2024: Nick Taylor (-21) (DG: 93) over Charley Hoffman (-21) Winner Odds: Taylor (150/1) Scoring Average: -1.19 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19) (DG: 3) over Nick Taylor   Winner Odds: Scheffler (13/1) Scoring Average: -0.28 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) (DG: 10) over Patrick Cantlay (-16) Winner Odds: Scheffler (25/1) Scoring Average: -0.77

This week we have the Qatar Masters at long-time host Doha Golf Club. There was a brief move away from Doha GC after 2019, but it returned in 2022 with the old Bermuda greens replaced by new paspalum greens. Doha is a long 7,508-yard stock par 72 that plays as an exposed desert course, often in windy conditions, with large greens. It played to a scoring average of +0.19 in 2025, +0.09 in 2024 and +0.85 in 2022 with winning scores of -16, -14 and -7 and only 9 players reaching