2025 Valero Texas Open Course Preview

The Valero Texas Open is one of the longest-running tournaments on the PGA Tour, dating all the way back to 1922. As of 2017, the event has been managed by Wasserman Media Group (I was a former intern!), and it has been played in the San Antonio area since inception. It is the longest-held PGA Tour event in the same city, and while the tournament has moved around to multiple venues in the greater San Antonio area, we have been coming to TPC San Antonio since 2009. In 2019, the tournament also moved to late March/early April and became a regular FedEx Cup event. For the past four years, it has been played the week before the Masters, and this will be our last look at Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, and two-time Valero champion Corey Conners, among others, before their trip down Magnolia Lane. While it will be fascinating to gauge the state of the top names, it’s worth noting that eight of the last 11 winners of the event directly preceding the Masters were not already qualified for the season’s first major.

Former Winners

2024: Akshay Bhatia (-20) over Denny McCarthy (-20) (Playoff)

• Winner Odds: Bhatia (60/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.29

2023: Corey Conners (-15) over Sam Stevens (-14)

• Winner Odds: Conners (24/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.01

2022: J.J. Spaun (-13) over Matt Kuchar, Matt Jones (-11)

• Winner Odds: Spaun (140/1)

• Scoring Average: -0.31

2021: Jordan Spieth (-18) over Charley Hoffman (-16)

• Winner Odds: Spieth (14/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.16

2019: Corey Conners (-20) over Charley Hoffman (-18)

• Winner Odds: Conners (175/1)

• Scoring Average: -0.88

The Basics

• Location: San Antonio, Texas

• Par/Length: Par 72; 7,438 yards

• Designer: Greg Norman (2010) with a bunker update in 2021

• Fairways: Perennial Rye-grass/Fescue measuring 25-30 yards wide

• Rough: Perennial Rye-grass/Fescue measuring 2.25 inches

• Greens: Poa Trivialis Over-seed, measuring 6,400 square feet

Golf Course

While neither visually pleasing, nor architecturally provocative, TPC San Antonio actually does one of the better jobs of testing modern professional golfers. The Greg Norman design is by no means a birdie fest or putting contest, and each of the last eight years, it has played right around middle of the pack to slightly harder in scoring difficulty. While an easier golf course than Memorial Park on paper (largely due to the two extra par fives), TPC San Antonio provides a similarly balanced test that will challenge all aspects of a golfer's game. Wind is always part of the equation as well in Texas, and it will be important to pay attention to UTStick’s reports in the Discord to hone in on the most accurate course conditions.

Last year, TPC San Antonio played as hard as it has in a decade. It was extremely firm and windy over the first three days, before playing 1.3 strokes under par on Sunday with zero wind in the forecast. Do not be fooled by Akshay Bhatia and Denny McCarthy both getting to 20 under par, as only four players got to 10 under on the entire week. Last year, it played as the eighth-most difficult course on the PGA TOUR, which was an anomaly, it usually plays between a quarter stroke above par and a stroke under par, always ranking slightly harder than Tour average but never as one of the 10 most difficult golf courses on Tour until last year. I’m expecting a fair amount of wind over the weekend and some extremely high temperatures, but the golf course will be soft after receiving significant rainfall early in the week. I would imagine the golf course reverts to playing around even par, but the golf course is going to play soft and long, and we should see enough wind to make tee-to-green play a real challenge. It always features among the longest and hardest par fives on the PGA TOUR, featuring a whopping 19.2% of all approach shots from 250 yards-plus, and this is the only reason why distance is advantageous on this course. The Norman design features one of the lowest going for the green percentages on the PGA TOUR, so those who can reach the green in two on the par fives (as well as the drivable par four 17th hole) possess a distinctive advantage.  

In terms of the actual course layout, the four par threes provide a stern test, all measuring between 171 and 241 yards and all playing over par. TPC San Antonio features a nice mix of stout par fours as well. Outside of the drivable 17th hole, the other nine par fours all measure between 401 and 481 yards. There are five par fours that measure above 445 yards, and they make up five of the six toughest holes on the course. The par fives provide little respite as well, ranking as some of the longest and toughest three-shotters. Three out of the four par fives measure over 590 yards and are not necessarily reachable by all players. Each of the last eight years, they have ranked inside the top eight set of toughest par fives on the PGA Tour.

Players need not possess elite distance or accuracy off the tee, but the primary concern is keeping the ball in play and avoiding the non-rough hazards. Overall approach play is paramount, and since the course still features a lower-than-average greens in regulation percentage, short game (and particularly bunker play) will be of upmost importance. The Course History sharks will be eating good this week too, as TPC San Antonio features some of the most predictive history on Tour, and certain players appear capable of performing here regardless of form. Let’s dive into the stats!

Stats

Off the Tee

Last year, TPC San Antonio ranked eighth out of 43 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked in the top 15 in this category.

Driving distance last year was 292.9 yards and driving accuracy was 48.6%, thus it became nearly so impossible to hit the fairways that both distance and accuracy was de-valued. TPC featured the second-lowest driving accuracy percentage on Tour, with fairways that measured just 27.3 yards wide. The driver usage percentage at this golf course still hovers around 70%, so it’s welcoming of all strategies, and there are a number of 400-ish yard par fours where players really don’t need to hit driver. Powerful driving only really makes a difference on the drivable par four 17th hole as well as the four long par fives. The golf course is similar to Valspar in the sense that it is so difficult for even accurate drivers to find the fairway, that it doesn’t really test accuracy or overall off-the-tee play in the way you would think it does. TPC San Antonio featured the second-most difficult fairways to hit on the PGA TOUR last year, but it also ranked 38th out of 43 courses in missed fairway penalty, 41st in rough penalty, 13th in non-rough penalty, and 31st in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke.

Despite the low rough penalty, this is not a golf course where distance has been at all correlated with success. Each of the last 5 years, TPC San Antonio has featured a well below Tour average correlation with distance as well as a below-average correlation with accuracy. Unless you are insanely accurate, in the case of Corey Conners, it’s hard to gain a significant advantage off the tee here either. Last year, not a single player on the top 10 of the leaderboard ranked top-5 in strokes gained off the tee. Five of the top nine players lost to the field in distance, and four of the top 9 lost in accuracy, and not even one of the top 9 ranked top-five in strokes gained off the tee. It seems as if Corey Conners is the exception that doesn’t prove the rule, which is the case at every course. Unless you possess insane accuracy, it’s very difficult to gain an advantage here OTT with either distance or accuracy and the name of the game is just staying out of the major trouble. This tournament is won with the second shot.

Approach

Last year, TPC San Antonio ranked 7th in APP difficulty, and it generally ranks above average in this category; not necessarily harder than driving, but it is a difficult overall approach golf course. The greens in regulation percentage at TPC San Antonio was just 56.5%, 9.4% below Tour average, so it featured among the toughest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.

Proximity

TPC San Antonio features one of the most evenly distributed approach ranges on Tour, and instead of overly favoring one specific range, identifying the best all-around iron players remains a more sensible strategy. If forced to get more specific, long iron play (specifically from 250 yards-plus) is an important skill given the four par fives, and for the shorter players who are unable to reach the three-shotters in two, precision from 125 yards is a necessary antidote to offset a lack of length.

This is also an ideal week to look at going for the green birdie or better percentage. As I've alluded to with the par fives, this is the real way for a player to separate at TPC San Antonio. All four par fives are on the longer side, and not every player in the field will be able to reach them. The same can be said about the drivable par four 17th. This explains why TPC San Antonio actually features one of the highest percentage of approach shots from greater than 250 yards. The ability to hit fairway woods is a skill more heavily accentuated at TPC San Antonio than nearly any other course on Tour, so I wanted to identify the players who rated out highly in birdie or better percentage when going for the green, a stat exclusive to the Rabbit Hole. There are still paths to make birdies on these holes with elite wedge play, but there is a tremendous advantage to be had by reaching any of the four par fives (or the drivable par four) in two strokes. The best players in this field in going for the green birdie or better percentage in this field have been Steven Fisk, Rico Hoey, Jackson Suber, Kevin Roy, and Kevin Velo.

At the end of the day, TPC San Antonio is still a second-shot golf course above all, and SG: APP has played a bigger role of the pie than the other three categories among top-20 finishers, top-10 finishers, top-5 finishers, and winners. The Norman design is still a spike approach course above all, and both Akshay and Corey Conners led the field in approach play in both of their two victories. Last year, approach play was the common denominator, as each of the top 10 finishers all gained over two strokes on APP, and the top 4 finishers on the leaderboard all ranked top-7 in approach and all gained over four strokes in that category. The prior year, the top four finishers all gained over 5 strokes on APP  and ranked 1, 2, 3, 4 in approach play. The players in this field in the best approach form right now are Jackson Suber, Henrik Norlander, Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, and Bud Cauley.

Around the Green

Last year, TPC San Antonio ranked 25th out of 43 courses in strokes gained around the green play, and it generally ranks as the easiest statistical category in difficulty. While Greg Norman heavily bunkered this golf course, the actual greenside complexes are very straightforward. Last year, TPC San Antonio ranked 24th out of 43 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 33rd from the rough, and sixth from the bunkers. TPC San Antonio is one of the few courses on Tour where skill out of the bunkers are highly correlated with success, as the Norman design features some of the most cavernous and challenging bunkers on Tour. The best bunker players in this field have been Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Michael Kim, and Aaron Baddeley.

Outside of bunker play, overall around-the-green play has an above average correlation to success compared with other Tour courses. This makes a lot of sense in theory given the low greens-in-regulation percentage. Last year, Akshay and Denny ranked first and second in strokes gained around the green, and short game often plays just as much of a role in the strokes gained pie as off the tee.

Putting

Last year, TPC San Antonio ranked 18th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked middle of the pack in this category. The Greg Norman design ranks 33rd inside five feet, 25th from five to 15 feet, and ninth from greater than 15 feet. Just like we have seen the last two weeks at Innisbrook and TPC Sawgrass, TPC San Antonio features incredibly smooth Poa Trivialis over-seeded greens that roll incredibly true and fast. Greg Norman is not a skilled architect of green complexes, but TPC San Antonio still features large surfaces with some key undulating features that make lag putting a real challenge. The best lag putters in this field are Vince Whaley, Aaron Baddeley, Emiliano Grillo, Andrew Putnam, and Michael Kim.

TPC San Antonio is far too difficult of a tee-to-green test with a far too low greens-in-regulation percentage to be considered a putting contest, and historically, spike approach play has played a larger part of the strokes gained pie among top-20, top-10, top-five finishers, and winners. In both of Corey Conners victories, he ranked outside of the top 20 in putting, and while players such as Denny McCarthy can always find an advantage on smooth Poa Trivialis greens, I wouldn’t weight putting at this golf course any higher than Tour average. Over the last three years, the best Poa Trivialis putters in this field have been Sam Ryder, Jake Knapp, Matt Kuchar, Denny McCarthy, and Sam Burns.

Scoring Stats

Par 5 scoring at TPC San Antonio is fairly essential, as top-10 finishers have gained far more strokes to the field on par fives than they have on par threes and fours. Navigating these tough three-shotters and separating from the field on the holes that are far from an easy birdie will be a major difference-maker. The best players in par five birdie or better percentage in this field are Niklas Norgaard, Si Woo Kim, Jesper Svensson, Matti Schmid, and Patrick Cantlay.

Finally, we remain in Texas where many PGA Tour pros make their home. Texas golf is defined by blustery conditions, warm temperatures, and firm fairways. The best Texas players in this field over the past five years have been Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sam Burns.

Comp Courses/Course History

TPC San Antonio features one of the strongest course history correlations on Tour, ranking fourth out of all current PGA Tour courses in predictiveness behind only Riviera, Bay Hill, and Augusta National. My friend Joseh LaMagna of the Fried Egg has been yelling at me for years about the underrated strategic nuance of the golf course, and we have seen players such as Corey Conners, Charley Hoffman, Jordan Spieth, Brandt Snedeker, and Matt Kuchar all perform time and again at TPC San Antonio given their comfortability with the sightlines off the tee and strategy on the risk/reward holes. The best players in this field at TPC San Antonio have been Jordan Spieth, Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar, Denny McCarthy, and Sam Stevens.

The two comp courses that continually come up, both in terms of required skill-set, architecture, and aesthetics, are TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale. Both courses feature similar agronomy, generally similar scoring conditions (especially when TPC Summerlin gets windy), and a tremendous amount of leaderboard crossover. The best players in this field at the comp courses have been Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, J.T. Poston, Tom Kim, and Daniel Berger.

Model

Off the Tee (14%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L24 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (7%)

• L50 Good Drive Percentage (7%)

Approach (31%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

• L24 Strokes Gained Approach (15%)

• L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (7%)

• L75 Proximity 250 yards plus (5%)

• L50 Going for Green Birdie or Better Percentage (4%)

Around the Green (14%) (PGA Tour average: 8%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Around the Green (8%)

• L50 Sand Save Percentage (6%)

Putting (16%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa Trivialis (5%)

• L50 Putting 5-10 Feet (3%)

• L50 Putting 10-15 Feet (3%)

• L50 Three Putt Avoidance 25 Feet Plus (5%)

Scoring Stats (11%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: Texas (4%)

• L50 Par Five Birdie or Better Percentage (7%)

Comp Courses/Course History (14%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 TPC San Antonio (10%)

• L36 Comp Courses: TPC Summerlin/TPC Scottsdale (4%)

Model Top 20

1. Si Woo Kim

2. Bud Cauley

3. Tommy Fleetwood

4. Rico Hoey

5. Denny McCarthy

6. J.T. Poston

7. Jordan Spieth

8. Michael Kim

9. Keegan Bradley

10. Hideki Matsuyama

11. Akshay Bhatia

12. Daniel Berger

13. Andrew Putnam

14. Ben Griffin

15. Charley Hoffman

16. Corey Conners

17. Jacob Bridgeman

18. Patrick Cantlay

19. Keith Mitchell

20. Brian Harman

Player Profile: Si Woo Kim

Ah, the vaunted ‘No. 1 in my model’ spot. A blessing and a curse! Yet I am going to continue to trust my handicap on this one, as my Houston handicap, which was a heavily back to basics, course fit approach, provided one of my strongest positional cards and pools of the season. I love Si Woo Kim at this golf course, and his results back this up. The former Players Champion has recorded four top-25 finishes in seven appearances at TPC San Antonio, including a fourth-place finish in 2019. While coming off a disappointing missed cut at Memorial Park, Kim still gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, and his combination of elite overall approach play, par five scoring, and bunker play should pay dividends once again at the Greg Norman design.