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2025 Mexico Open Final Thoughts

Weather



Absolutely perfect, dome golf conditions in Mexico this week. I would say it’s a touch less windy than prior years, but there has also been very little rain across the past couple of months, so the course should play firm and bouncy (as firm as Paspalum can really get.) Gun to my head, AM/PM score a little bit better than PM/AM, as it still appears the worst time to be on the course (by a hair) is Thursday afternoon? Yet I wouldn’t waste a single iota of energy on the weather this week. Is the winning score bet attackable this week? Probably not. I’m not going to invent a contrarian take on the weather just for the sake of selling subs (tsk tsk) and I would expect very similar scoring conditions to years past. The lack of wind should balance out with the firmer conditions. 20 under par will get the job done.


Winning Score Prediction: -20

Scoring Average: -1.1

 

Core


Rasmus Hojgaard, $10,100: I really haven’t gotten the opportunity to spend much time on Rasmus Hojgaard this week, but this is a player who has absolutely grown in my estimation as the week has progressed. I would put close to zero stock into his DFL finish last week at Torrey Pines. Rasmus started out six over par through his first six holes, and in miserable conditions, he wouldn’t have been the first player to quit. His week at Torrey Pines was really over before it started, and I’m poopoo in the potty proud of him for not withdrawing! Greener pastures await in Mexico, and while this will be Rasmus’ first appearance at Vidanta Vallarta, the Greg Norman design should be a match made in heaven for the big-hitting Dane. As much as I love Nicolai this week, and I will absolutely concede that his brother is the better value from a betting perspective, Rasmus is the better, more consistent player. He very may well be the best overall ball-striker in this field, ranking top-15 in recent off-the-tee play, carry distance, strokes gained off the tee on driver-heavy courses with a low missed fairway penalty, recent approach play, and most importantly long-term proximity from 175 yards plus. Similar to Kitayama, Hojgaard has the ball-striking ability to win this event with his tee-to-green play alone, but I ultimately gave Hojgaard the nod as a core play given the fact that he is a far superior putter and is lower owned for that matter as well. I will have many double-Hojgaard lineups this week, and I am fully prepared for the greatest twin fucking by a tall and handsome duo since the Winklevosses realized they didn’t invent Facebook.

 

Alex Smalley, $8,700: Is the Smalley love out of control this week? Of course. Has the pendulum swung too far on a swing that I swung? Sure. Yet the reality of the situation is, I model for a reason. It’s not the only part of the equation, but it’s certainly an important part, and outside of our niche ecosystem, Alex Smalley remains a relative unknown in the golf world, priced at $8,700 in a field of scrubs at VidantaWorld. I already waxed poetically about Smalley in the player profile section of my Monday article and the newsletter, so I will keep my reasoning on the Duke grad fairly brief. At the end of the day, I would not be overly concerned with the steam or the fact that he is No. 1 in many Betsperts models. This is what should be happening. This is called improvement. Long gone are the Fantasy National days where we would identify the best Bermuda-grass putters at Pebble Beach. The space is getting sharper, and we should cherish that, not reject it. I’m proud to be on the front lines. It means our work makes a difference, with 15% Smalley just being one of a gazillion examples. There are plentiful opportunities to pivot on every slate, and I have done quite a bit of this, fading Carson Young and Erik Van Rooyen (other statistical darlings) for low-owned options in the mid to high sevens, not to mention utilizing Aaron Rai and Rasmus Hojgaard as opposed to Akshay Bhatia and another of the higher-owned $9K options. I’m trusting my numbers and sticking to my guns with Smalley this week as a core play, although he will not be in my single entry lineup. I personally believe that Steve is getting too cute with the pivot, and if the plan was always to spit in the face of the numbers, then why model in the first place? So long as the ownership stays below 20%, Alex Smalley is a slam, and I don’t care who knows it. We don’t live in 2021 anymore, where Pat Mayo was the needle. Smalley is popular because he’s correct. Let’s move on.

 

Greyson Sigg, $8,000: While we embraced the popularity of Smalley, let’s go in a different direction here by highlighting a pivot in Greyson Sigg. I absolutely LOVE Nicolai Hojgaard this week at $8,100, but so does everyone else, so let’s identify the reasons why Greyson Sigg could outperform him. In three appearances at Vidanta Vallarta, Sigg has recorded a 33rd, an 18th, and a 19th, always due to elite approach play. While Greyson Sigg does not check the box of the incredibly lazy HIT BALL FAR SUCK AT GOLF narrative, he certainly makes up for it with elite long-iron play. The main reason why distance is correlated with success at Vidanta Vallarta is because it minimizes a player’s reliance on long irons on the most iron-intensive golf course on Tour. Yet a more straightforward path to success is actually just being a good long-iron player. Imagine that! While Sigg does not pack the traditional punch off the tee of a Knapp or Hojgaard brother, he makes up for it with rock-solid middle- to long-iron play, which explains his admirable history at both VidantaWorld and other Paspalum resort courses. The Sea Island resident ranks top-20 in both strokes gained total on resort courses and Paspalum courses, and he is coming off a 32nd in Phoenix where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. A steady favorite at -130 over Justin Lower (a player I also like) on sharp books, Sigg is deserving of our respect, and one of my favorite pivots on the slate.

 

Matt Wallace, $7,900: While Sigg feels safe for a top-30 finish, I’m going to roll the dice for the final spot. Matt Wallace has more upside and downside than the aforementioned Sigg. He is more likely to win this event than Sigg, and he is also more likely to finish DFL. Yet we play to win, and we will never be discouraged by a losing week. Wallace is a sleeping giant in the DFS streets, and has somehow flown under the radar despite his impressive Paspalum resume due to the fact that he is not thought of as a traditional Bomber Who Stinks at Golf. The ironic aspect of the equation here is that Wallace actually does pump it off the tee, ranking 24th in this field in carry distance, and he is an even better middle- to long-iron player. Wallace is coming off a middling finish in Phoenix where he gained 3.3 strokes on approach, and he always seems to raise his baseline on wide-open, driver-heavy golf courses. Outside of winning the Corales Puntacana, my No. 1 comp course this week, Wallace also finished fourth last year at TPC Craig Ranch, another driver-heavy, long-iron-intensive golf course with middling to easy scoring conditions where sheer length is the only defense. As an ancillary skill, Wallace possesses one of the best short games in the field, which will work to our advantage if conditions are in fact bouncier than in previous years. With great respect to the popular options in the $7K range (I like quite a few of these options too!), Wallace presents tremendous opportunity this week based on simple fact that he doesn’t fit the traditional mold. And the best part of it all? He’s longer than half the players who are getting touted as bombers this week too.

 

Pool


  • Kurt Kitayama, $10,200

  • Rasmus Hojgaard, $10,100

  • Aaron Rai, $9,400

  • Taylor Moore, $9,000

  • Ben Griffin, $8,900

  • Alex Smalley, $8,700

  • Nicolai Hojgaard, $8,100

  • Greyson Sigg, $8,000

  • Matt Wallace, $7,900

  • Jesper Svensson, $7,600

  • Chan Kim, $7,500

  • Ben Silverman, $7,400

  • Rico Hoey, $7,200

  • Joe Highsmith, $7,200

  • Vincent Norrman, $7,000

  • Jackson Suber, $6,900

  • Will Gordon, $6,800

  • Hayden Springer, $6,800

  • Nate Lashley, $6,700

  • Nick Hardy, $6,600

 

Betting Card


Outrights (1U total)

  • Stephan Jaeger (25/1) (0.3U) (win: 7.5) FD)

  • Alex Smalley (45/1) (0.175U) (win: 7.9) FD

  • Nicolai Hojgaard (55/1) (0.14U) (win: 7.7) FD

  • Erik Van Rooyen (65/1) (0.115U) (win: 7.5) FD

  • Carson Young (75/1) (0.1U) (win: 7.5) FD

  • Rico Hoey (94/1) (0.08U) (win: 7.5) Pinnacle

  • Vincent Norrman (110/1) (0.07U) (win: 7.7) FD

  • Jose Luis Ballester (400/1) (0.02U) (win: 8) FD)

 

Matchups (1U each)

  • Ben Griffin (-130) over Harry Hall (BetOnline)

  • Erik Van Rooyen (-105) over Ryan Fox (BetOnline)

 

Top 20 (5U Total)

  • Stephan Jaeger (+115) (1U) DK

  • Alex Smalley (+150) (1U) DK

  • Nicolai Hojgaard (+170) (1U) DK

  • C.T. Pan (+200) (1U) Bet365

  • Justin Lower (+230) (0.5U) DK

  • Carson Young (+240) (0.5U) DK

 

OAD: Michael Kim 


BK/Kyle OAD: Sam Stevens 

 

2024-2025

Outrights: -13.45U

Positionals: -11.6U

Matchups: +6.36U

Total: -18.69U

Risk: 127U, Win: -18.69U

 

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI

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