2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Course Preview

After a torrid start to the season, the PGA Tour takes a natural exhale for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta, a logical exhale for many of the game’s best players. This event will unquestionably feature our most underwhelming field of the season. Yet with more lesser-known players comes a stronger reliance on data and often a greater edge. My most financially successful part of the season has historically been the Fall swing, after all. Even with such an underwhelming field headlined by the likes of Akshay Bhatia and Rasmus Hojgaard, my excitement level remains unwavering.

Former Winners

2024: Jake Knapp (-19) over Sami Valimaki (-17)

• Winner Odds: Jake Knapp (44/1)

• Scoring Average: -1.1

2023: Tony Finau (-24) over Jon Rahm (-21)

• Winner Odds: Tony Finau (8/1)

• Scoring Average: -1.09

2022: Jon Rahm (-17) over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama

• Winner Odds: Jon Rahm (+450)

• Scoring Average: -0.81

The Basics

Course: Vidanta Vallarta

Location: Vallarta, Mexico

Designer: Greg Norman (2015)

Par/Length: Par 71; 7,436 yards

Hazards: Water comes into play on 11 holes

Fairways: Paspalum, measuring 41 yards wide

Rough: Paspalum, measuring 2 inches

Greens: Paspalum, running 11-11.5 on the stimp

Golf Course

Vidanta Vallarta is a typical, tropical Paspalum resort course, with the most defining characteristic from a statistical standpoint being its sheet length and emphasis on power off the tee and long-iron play. Torrey Pines with no rough and slower, easier greens! It has been the host venue for the Mexico Open for the last years, and featured a scoring average between -0.8 and -1.1, generally ranking between the 11th and 15th-easiest course on the PGA Tour. I would not by any means call this a pure birdie-fest or putting contest, as the golf course’s sheer length (and the occasional high wind guests) somewhat negate the straightforward nature of the inviting fairways and large, flat, and slow greens.

The primary defense of Vidanta Vallarta is self-evident. This is a long golf course that features the longest set of par fours and par fives on the entire PGA Tour. It features four par fives ranging from 548 to 637 yards, five par threes ranging from 174 to 226 yards, and five par fours that measure over 450 yards. With the extra par three and the softness of the fairways, the 7,400 yards play longer than the scorecard suggests. This event is won with long-iron play and powerful driving, and these two skills should be prioritized above all else. Yet Vidanta Vallarta is the token example of how length is not enough to make a golf course difficult. At least three of those long-iron approaches will be the second shot on a reachable par five, and there is such little trouble around these large and receptive greens. No better illustration of this is that despite featuring the longest set of par fours and par fives on the PGA Tour last year, they still ranked middle of the pack in difficulty.

Vidanta Vallarta is simply a lot of empty calories, and of all of Greg Norman’s career endeavors post competitive golf, design may be his least successful. In the first year, three of the top four finishers possessed a ton of power off the tee and were elite long-iron players. The following year, the accentuation of power off the tee and long-iron play was even more pronounced. Every single one of the top seven finishers was a top-30 long iron player in the field entering the week. I’m sure the industry steals this narrative and runs with it, but those who zag for the sake of zagging and manufacture incorrect takes to try and say something different are worse offenders. Hopefully the lack of a Sunday podcast will keep the long-iron-intensive narrative at controllable levels.

Stats

Off the Tee

Bombs away this week, folks. Despite soft fairways with little roll out, Vidanta Vallarta features an average driving distance of 297.6 yards, compared to the Tour average of 290.8. It features a driver usage percentage of 79.2% compared to the Tour average of 67.3% and is absolutely one of the most driver-heavy golf courses on the PGA Tour. With negligible rough, there is very little argument for not bombing away with reckless abandon. It features wide fairways measuring 41 yards that rank as the fourth-easiest fairways to hit on Tour. Even with such a driver-heavy approach, they were the fifth-easiest to hit on the PGA Tour.

Last year, it ranked 29th out of 43 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked on the easier end in this category. It ranked 28th in missed fairway penalty, 25th in rough penalty, and 37th non-rough penalty. Yet it does rank fourth out of 43 courses in fraction of missed fairway drives that result in a penalty stroke. It’s not a golf course that requires elite accuracy, but there are just enough hazards to keep the bombers honest, and overall off the tee with a 70% split on distance over accuracy is the perfect driving formula here.

Taking these data points into consideration, the length advantage is hard to ignore. Two years ago, every single one of the top four and 12 of the top 15 gained to the field in driving distance. The prior year, nine of the top 10 players gained to the field in driving distance, and the only player who did not was Tony Finau, who we know can reach back for a few extra yards when necessary. Last year was the least distance-biased year, as C.T. Pan, Doug Ghim, Chan Kim, Andrew Novak, and Carson Young all finished top-12 while ranking outside the top-30 in distance, but they of course made up for it with their long-iron play.

Vidanta Vallarta is still a very important course for overall driving and features one of the more flat relationships to overall approach play compared to other courses. Last year, nine of the top 12 players ranked top-30 in strokes gained off the tee, and every single one of the top seven players ranked top-25 in strokes gained off the tee. The best recent overall drivers of the ball in this field have been Alejandro Tosti, Kevin Yu, Taylor Moore, Sam Stevens, and Aldrich Potgieter.

Of course, identifying the longest players in the field is paramount, as Vidanta is one of the highest correlated courses with distance on Tour, yet due to the slower fairways, I found it more valuable to identify the players with the highest carry distance, who have been Aldrich Potgieter, Rasmus Hojgaard, Michael Thorbjornsen, Matti Schmid, and Kurt Kitayama.

Vidanta Vallarta is also a very specific type of golf course that allows players to bomb away with driver with very little concern for a wayward driving penalty. The best players in this field off the tee on driver-heavy courses with a low missed fairway penalty have been Rico Hoey, Alejandro Tosti, Vincent Norrman, Kevin Yu, and Luke List.

Approach

Despite featuring among the highest plurality of long irons on the PGA Tour, Vidanta Vallarta ranks just 25th out of 43 courses in approach difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked middle of the pack in greens in regulation percentage.

Proximity

Vidanta Vallarta very may well be the most long-iron-intensive golf course on the entire PGA Tour, with over 60% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards. It features three par threes measuring over 195 yards, six par fours measuring over 450 yards, and at least two of the four par fives are reachable by nearly all players in the field. While distance and overall off-the-tee play is certainly a major advantage, long-iron play remains the single most correlated aspect of Vidanta Vallarta. Players with elite long-iron skill should be able to sleepwalk their way into a high finish, and this is also why it has been so easy for Jon Rahm and Tony Finau to separate. It’s not only because they were the best players in the field but also because they’re the best long-iron players in the field. The best players in this field from 175 yards-plus have been Max McGreevy, Kurt Kitayama, Nicolai Hojgaard, Mac Meissner, and Chan Kim.

Around the Green

Vidanta Vallarta features among the easiest greenside surrounds on the PGA Tour, ranking 38th out of 43 courses in around-the-green difficulty, and it has ranked in the top-five easiest courses in this category in all three years of tournament history. Last year, it ranked 37th out of 43 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 32nd from the rough, and 37th from the bunkers.

Paspalum is an incredibly easy surface to chip on because the ball sits up, almost like a driving range with mats. Slower greens make chipping less difficult as well. Just ask Viktor Hovland, the Prince of Paspalum, how easy it is to chip when there is little undulation or speed to worry about. Slower greens remove an element of touch and judgement from the equation. While the greens in regulation percentage is just low enough to not deem around-the-green play as completely irrelevant, this is among the lowest around-the-green weight I will have all season, and Jake Knapp won here last year losing strokes around the green.

Putting

Last year, Vidanta Vallarta ranked 33rd out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and each of the last three years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in this category. It ranked 37th in putting difficulty inside five feet, 37th from five to 15 feet, and 22nd from greater than 15 feet.

I have a standard weight on putting at Vidanta Vallarta. It features a middling to easier-than-average greens in regulation percentage and incredibly low degree of difficulty, and top-five finishers have still gained less strokes putting than they have on approach.

There are differing theories on whether slower, easier greens devalue putting skill or further allow elite putters to separate themselves. We have a tremendous amount of evidence that both can occur. Some of the worst putters on Tour roll it great at Augusta, which feature the fastest and most undulating greens on Tour. Some of the best putters on Tour separate on Paspalum, and some of the worst putters on Tour also raise their baseline on this surface significantly. At the end of the day, it all comes down to personal preference.

While we do not have a ton of data on strokes gained putting on Paspalum (many of the opposite-field events still do not feature shot-tracker), we can single out the golf courses that run on the slower side. British Open courses, many coastal courses, Kapalua, etc. all feature significantly slower green speeds. The best putters in this field over the last two years on slower greens have been Ben Silverman, Vince Whaley, Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, and Justin Lower.

Scoring Stats

Paspalum is a fairly unique playing surface on the PGA Tour. It plays incredibly soft, and the ball sits up on a tee. It is often the preferred surface on golf courses in tropic conditions, as it does an excellent job of withstanding heat. Certain players have grown incredibly comfortable on this surface over the years, and the rabbit hole yields an opportunity to identify the Paspalum Princes. The best Paspalum players over the past five years have been Akshay Bhatia, Alex Smalley, Justin Lower, Patrick Rodgers, and Sam Ryder.

Despite its pure length, Vidanta Vallarta is still a resort course with incredibly inviting fairways and minimal rough. Resort courses were designed to engage tourists and high handicappers, not to host professional golf tournaments. Outside of wide fairways and easy rough, they also feature large, flat, and slow greens, risk/reward par fives and drivable par fours, and they are often in coastal environments. The best resort course players over the past five years have been Alex Smalley, Ben Griffin, Patrick Rodgers, Akshay Bhatia, and Greyson Sigg.

With four par fives and a drivable par four, aggressive play at Vidanta Vallarta is necessary and encouraged. At least three of the four par fives are reachable by most players in the field, but all require a decision. Three of the four measure over 585 yards and call for a precise shot from 225 yards-plus. For this reason, I wanted to identify the players with the highest birdie or better percentage when going for the green on a drivable par four or five, a unique stat to the Rabbit Hole. The best players in the field in this category have been Jesper Svensson, Rasmus Hojgaard, Patrick Fishburn, Alejando Tosti, and Taylor Moore.

Comp Courses/Course History

In terms of correlation of course history, Vidanta Vallarta features among the lowest on Tour across its three-year history. We saw the same players finish first and second in the first two editions (the best two players in the field), and last year, two debutants finished first and second. In 2023, six of the top 14 players did not play in 2022, and last year, Jake Knapp and Sami Valimaki were both making their first appearance. Vidanta Vallarta is about as straightforward as it gets from a strategy standpoint, and it just comes down to driving and long iron execution. As far as course history goes, Vidanta features one of my lowest weights on the season. Still, the best players in this field at Vidanta Vallarta have been Patrick Rodgers, Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Carson Young, and Akshay Bhatia.

The other two golf courses that stand out as ideal reference points would be El Cardonal, host of the World Wide Technology Championship, and Corales, host of the Corales Punta Cana Resort and Club Championship. Both golf courses measure over 7,400 yards, are wide open off the tee and emphasize distance over accuracy, feature very similar scoring conditions, and have Paspalum agronomy from head to toe. All three of these course’s greatest defense are their sheer length and the potential for windy conditions. Every year, the winning score falls somewhere between 15 and 24 under par.

The final comp course I would throw into the mix is TPC Craig Ranch, host of the CJ Cup. While TPC Craig Ranch does not feature Paspalum, it remains one of the most driver-heavy, long-iron-intensive golf courses on Tour (without being overly challenging.) The best players in this field on the comp courses have been Alex Smalley, Justin Lower, Sam Stevens, Vincent Norrman, Joel Dahmen, and Carson Young.

Model

Off the Tee (22%) (PGA Tour Average: 18%)

• L2 Years SG: OTT Driver Heavy, Low Missed Fairway Penalty (5%)

• L36 SG: OTT Recent (8%)

• L50 Carry Distance (9%)

Approach (29%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

• L36 SG: APP (12%)

• L75 Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)

• L75 Proximity 200 yards plus (12%)

Around the Green (5%) (PGA Tour average: 10%)

• L50 SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (15%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L3 Years SG: Putting Slow Greens (5%)

• L50 Putting 5-10 Ft (5%)

• L50 Putting 10-15 Ft (5%)

Scoring Stats (15%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L5 Years SG: TOT Paspalum (6%)

• L3 Years SG: TOT Resort Courses (5%)

• L50 Going for the Green BoB% (4%)

Comp Courses/Course History (14%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 Vidanta Vallarta (6%)

• L24 Corales (3%)

• L24 El Cardonal (3%)

• L24 TPC Craig Ranch (2%)

Model Top 20

1. Alex Smalley

2. Rasmus Hojgaard

3. Kurt Kitayama

4. am Stevens

5. Chan Kim

6. Vincent Norrman

7. Carson Young

8. Ben Griffin

9. Nicolai Hojgaard

10. Patrick Rodgers

11. Akshay Bhatia

12. Greyson Sigg

13. Stephen Jaeger

14. Kevin Roy

15. Michael Kim

16. Justin Lower

17. Henrik Norlander

18. Rico Hoey

19. Nate Lashley

20. Harry Hall

Player Profile: Alex Smalley

Listen, I understand. Did I expect Alex Smalley to number one in EVERYONE’s model this week? I did not. Yet this is just a sign that we are moving in the right direction with data. I cannot speak for others, but here is my best articulation of why Alex Smalley makes tremendous sense for me statistically. Smalley is a great overall driver of the ball, ranking top-10 in recent off the tee play, and while he is not one of the longest players in the field, he certainly boasts above-average distance. The approach play is also encouraging, as Smalley ranks top-30 in both overall recent approach and play and long-term long iron approach play. The short game and putting are certainly relative weakness compared to his ball-striking, but even the recent putting from five to 15 feet is encouraging.

Yet most importantly, Smalley is a resort course/Paspalum merchant, ranking second in strokes gained total on Paspalum and first in strokes gained total on Resort courses. There are many reasons for this, but at the top of mind is his aggressive style of course management, as the former Duke grad ranks ninth in this field in going for the green birdie or better percentage. This birdie-making upside will always be conducive to wide-open, driver-heavy golf courses, and his results at Vidanta Vallarta (6th-MC-MC) and the comp courses (five top-25 finishes and a runner-up in six appearances at Corales Punta Cana, El Cardonal, and TPC Craig Ranch) speak for themselves. He may miss the cut by a billion, but I’m fairly comfortable with the case of why this specific golf course is a bulletproof fit.