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2025 Genesis Invitational Final Thoughts

Weather


This has really been a mess this week and an exercise in bad faith, all the way down to Ben Griffin’s rough videos. I remained resolute that those going to these golf courses and gaslighting you into believing that there is SOMETHING ELSE about this golf course that anyone with half a brain can’t ascertain with common sense ball-knowing is bad faith grifting. I let out a deep belly laugh when a PGA Tour rules official came out this morning and declared that the rough this week is actually SHORTER than what we saw at the Farmer's a few weeks ago. The pendulum has swung way too far in this week in Torrey featuring U.S. Open conditions and unmanageable rough. There is not a single day this week that will be colder than what we saw a few weeks ago at Pebble Beach, a golf course eight hours north of San Diego.


Here’s the deal at Torrey this week. It’s going to play hard, but it’s going to play +1.2 strokes over par hard. For context, firm and fast Torrey a few weeks ago played +1.67 strokes over par, and the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey played +2.27 strokes over par. I still believe the wind and the rain that we will see on Thursday and Friday will yield demonstrably more difficult scoring conditions from a regular Torrey, but Friday and Saturday yield the exact same scoring conditions to what we saw in 2024 when the golf course played +0.4 strokes over par with a weaker field. I stand by my original breakdown of the golf course. Distance, long iron play, and putting above all. I want mudders on Thursday and Friday (Fleetwood and Rai), and I want bombers on Saturday and Sunday (Rory and Finau). Thursday and Friday will play up to +2 strokes over par, and Saturday and Sunday will play around +0.5 strokes over par.


Winning Score Prediction: -11

Scoring Average Prediction: +1.2

 

Core


Rory McIlroy, $10,900: Has the pendulum swung too far on Rory this week? Probably. Is Scottie Scheffler still a far superior player who is in an ideal spot after a primetime loss? Also yes. Yet do I stand by my take on the Sunday pod that Torrey Pines is about as close to we will get in terms of being a better golf course for Rory than it is for Scottie? Of course I do. Unfortunately, the secret is out. Long gone are the days when Inside Golf Pod was for the niche ball-knowers (don’t worry, we’re considering bringing it back behind the paywall if this nonsense continues), and the amount that this Rory-over-Scottie take this week has been recycled has rightfully driven Kyle to the brink of insanity. Yet there is one great equalizer in daily fantasy: price, and at the end of the day, Scottie remains $1.4K more expensive than Rory. On this golf course, that gap is comically absurd. Scottie is currently a -135 favorite over Rory in the betting markets, and there will always be enough general market support for the former. Remember, Scottie is still the sportsbook's greatest liability every single week. There are dozens of everyday, non-online, non-podcast listening and non-ball knowing consumers who could not tell you the first thing about course fit and are blindly going to play Scottie every week. For this reason, I still expect the ownership difference between the two to be comparable, but the price difference (outside of the course fit), makes Rory the obvious choice. I also discussed in the weather breakdown how the pendulum has also swung too far on Torrey being HARD and playing like a U.S. Open. Not that Rory isn’t brilliant in U.S. Opens, but he also remains the king of winning tournaments at eight to 15 under par, and I remain steadfast in my belief that a long, cold, and wet Torrey Pines is the best version of that golf course for his specific skill-set.

 

Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100: The theme this week is mudders and bombers, and with what Fleetwood lacks in pure power and long iron play, he makes up with in DOG and craftiness. In all seriousness, Fleetwood remains one of the strongest players in difficult scoring conditions and wind, with a laundry list of high-end finishes at Open Championships, windier links golf courses, and longer, thick rough, parkland tracks as well. While a 50th at the U.S. Open in 2021 is the Englishman’s only Torrey experience, Fleetwood has finished top-20 in nine of his last 12 appearances at the PGA Tour’s Holy Quartet of Long & Difficult: Quail, Riviera, Muirfield, and Bay Hill. He’s coming off a 22nd at Pebble Beach, where Fleetwood gained 2.3 strokes off the tee and 2.9 strokes on approach. Since missing the cut at the Open Championship, Fleetwood has now finished top-25 in 11 straight, a truly remarkable run of consistency. Of course, no one knows how to end a streak like me. Corey Conners had made 34 straight cuts before I cored him at the Sony Open. I wish we were getting our English prince at 9% this week as originally projected, but unfortunately this is the game we play as we convert more ball-knowers by the week. I’m still comfortable with the modest ownership, comparatively speaking, and I’m expecting a somewhat similar leaderboard to previous Scottish Opens at the Renaissance Club: Rory, Fleetwood, Bobby Mac, Aaron Rai. Sign me up.

 

Tony Finau, $8,200: I first declared my interest in Tony Finau during the Sunday pod, and I haven’t wavered much. I absolutely do love the low $8K/high $7K range. I considered Bobby Mac strongly for this spot (Scottish!). I considered back-to-back Detry. I considered Zalatoris and Keegan on a long and difficult golf course, and I even considered Rasmus and Burns as well. I ultimately still feel best about Finau, and I am riding with the big guy before I absolutely ruin his life on the Monday podcast with his former agent. Finau has a remarkable history at Torrey Pines, with six top-10 finishes in 12 appearances, and I would not remotely be concerned by the missed cut a few weeks ago. The putter can always go south with Tony, but the fact that he gained nearly five strokes putting on bumpy Poa greens in wind and rain at Pebble Beach in his last two leaves me feeling very optimistic. When I filter out extremely windy conditions over the last two years (19 mph+), Finau actually ranks first in this field, ahead of Scottie, and ahead of Rory. Ball-speed reigns supreme in this weather, and if Rory is starting on second base here, Tony at least has a big lead off first. The recent short game expertise is an underrated aspect of his skill-set as well, and the long-iron play cannot be ignored either. Still my official pick to win this week and preferred DK choice in a range chalk full of excellent choices.

 

Aaron Rai, $6,700: I briefly mentioned the Scottish Open in my Fleetwood, and I feel strongly about this comparison given the two-pronged nature of what we can expect at Torrey this week. The Scottish Open typically provides a little bit of everything. There are pockets of intense wind and rain, and pockets of calm and tranquil scoring conditions. This reminds of what we can expect on Torrey Thursday/Friday vs. Torrey Saturday/Sunday, and who better in the $6K range to navigate such circumstances than Mr. Two Gloves himself, Aaron Rai. The Englishman finished fourth at the Scottish Open in 2024 and won it in 2020, and he similarly boasts an impressive track record of success on windier golf courses across the pond with multiple top-10 finishes at the Irish Open as well. Rai has also recorded a sixth-place finish at Torrey Pines in 2022, which featured even more similar to conditions to what we can expect over the weekend this year as well. The 40th at Pebble Beach won’t turn any heads, but Rai still gained strokes in both ball-striking categories as well as 2.6 strokes putting on bumpy, Poa greens in windy and rainy conditions. Despite not featuring over-imposing length off the tee, there are still ways to gain strokes off the tee without bombing the ball 320 yards. We’ve seen players such as Morikawa combine elite driving accuracy and long-iron play to find just as much success as any, and Rai remains the best discount-Morikawa in golf, ranking top-15 in this field in overall off-the-tee play and proximity 200 yards-plus. We’ll be eating good on this one.

 

Player Pool


  • Rory McIlroy, $10,900

  • Justin Thomas, $10,100

  • Collin Morikawa, $10,000

  • Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100

  • Sam Burns, $8,400

  • Tony Finau, $8,200

  • Robert MacIntyre, $8,100

  • Will Zalatoris, $7,900

  • Keegan Bradley, $7,700

  • Sahith Theegala, $7,500

  • Cameron Young, $7,400

  • Wyndham Clark, $7,300

  • Akshay Bhatia, $7,100

  • Si Woo Kim, $7,100

  • Davis Thompson, $7,000

  • Denny McCarthy, $6,800

  • Aaron Rai, $6,700

  • Max Homa, $6,500

 

Betting Card

 

Outrights (1U total)

  • Rasmus Højgaard (40/1) (0.19U) (win: 7.6)

  • Jason Day (45/1) (0.175U) (win: 7.9)

  • Taylor Pendrith (45/1) (0.175U) (win: 7.9)

  • Tony Finau (50/1) (0.15U) (win: 7.5)

  • Will Zalatoris (50/1) (0.15U) (win: 7.5)

  • Adam Scott (90/1) (0.08U) (win: 7.7)

  • Wyndham Clark (100/1) (0.075U) (win: 7.5)

 

Matchups (1U each)

  • Viktor Hovland (-135) over Jordan Spieth

  • Wyndham Clark (-130) over J.J. Spaun

  • Gary Woodland (-115) over Brian Harman

 

Top 10 (Ties Included) (4U total)

  • Rasmus Hojgaard (+270) (0.5U)

  • Jason Day (+280) (0.5U)

  • Taylor Pendrith (+280) (0.5U)

  • Thomas Detry (+330) (0.5U)

  • Maverick McNealy (+330) (0.5U)

  • Russell Henley (+360) (0.5U)

  • Adam Scott (+425) (0.5U)

  • Sam Stevens (+450) (0.5U)

 

OAD: Patrick Cantlay

 

2024-2025

  • Outrights: -12.45U

  • Positionals: -9.75U

  • Matchups: +5.85U

  • Total: -16.35U

  • Risk: 119U, Win: -16.35U

 

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

  • Outrights: +30.4U

  • Matchups: +5.42U

  • Positionals: +28.54U

  • Total: +64.36U

  • ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI

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