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2025 Genesis Invitational Course Preview: Torrey Edition

With the Genesis Invitational being moved from iconic Riviera due to the California Wildfires, I find myself tortuously diving into my complicated relationship with Torrey Pines for the second time in four weeks. Yes, the PGA Tour will be returning to the San Diego coast again, although this time under the Signature Event structure: 70 players, no cut, four rounds on the daunting South course. For my full thoughts on Torrey Pines, my 3,000-word-plus preview from two weeks ago is going to provide all the basics, so I will center this abridged preview around how the Bell design will play differently this week based on the weather I am seeing at this moment in time. I believe strongly that a softer Torrey Pines requires a somewhat more nuanced handicap, so let’s dive into how we can attack a different angle.

 

Former Winners

 

2025: Harris English (-8) over Sam Stevens (-7)

  • Winner Odds: English (85/1)

  • Scoring Average: +1.67

2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13) over Nicolai Hojgaard (-12)

  • Winner Odds: Pavon (145/1)

  • Scoring Average: +0.4 

2023: Max Homa (-13) over Keegan Bradley (-11)

  • Winner Odds: Homa (21/1)

  • Scoring Average: +1.61

2022: Luke List (-15) over Will Zalatoris (-15) (Playoff)

  • Winner Odds: List (80/1)

  • Scoring Average: +0.35

2021: Patrick Reed (-14) over Viktor Hovland (-9)

  • Winner Odds: Reed (24/1)

  • Scoring Average: +1.35

 

The Basics


  • Golf Course: Torrey Pines South Course

  • Location: La Jolla, California

  • Designer: William Bell (1957); Rees Jones re-design (2001 & 2006)

  • Par/Length: Par 72; 7,765 yards

  • Hazards: Water comes into play on 1 hole

  • Fairways: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Rye-grass

  • Rough: Kikuyu with Rye-grass, 3.5 inches

  • Greens: 5,000 square feet featuring Poa Annua, running 11.5 on the stimp

 


Even since my Saturday evening preview, the weather appears to have subsided. The golf course will get dumped on overnight on Thursday, and we may even see a delay on Friday morning, but we can expect far more soft and receptive conditions at Torrey Pines this year, compared to the firm and fast test that we saw a few weeks ago.

 

Two weeks ago at Torrey, the golf course played incredibly dry and firm. California had barely seen any rain in the prior weeks, and when we see these conditions, the driving accuracy percentage and greens in regulation goes down, and the scoring average goes up. Under these conditions, we want to give a model bump to overall approach play and around-the-green play. Driving accuracy this year at Torrey was 50.7% compared to the prior year of 55.4%, and greens in regulation percentage was 58.0%, compared to the prior year of 64.7%. Every single player in the top five of the leaderboard ranked top-30 in both strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green, and we saw a far lower correlation with distance, in exchange for around-the-green play. Yet what we will see next week should actually mirror the 2024 leaderboard at Torrey when the golf course had received a significant amount of rainfall.

 



I attended Torrey Pines in 2024, and the golf course was incredibly soft. My feet were soaking wet after walking just a few holes, and we can expect similar conditions next week. When Torrey Pines is soft and receptive, the driving accuracy percentage and greens and regulation percentage increase, and while the golf course plays longer, the scoring average gets easier as players can now hold the fairways and greens at a higher rate. Under soft conditions, the golf course plays close to 8,000 yards, and distance plays an even greater factor than normal. In 2024, under similar conditions, 9 of the top 12 players on the leaderboard ranked top-30 in distance, compared to just 5 of the top 12 players in 2025. In 2024, the missed fairway penalty and rough penalty increased, as while fairways were easier to hit and the rough was far more lush. This places an even greater premium on hitting the ball a long way. Matthieu Pavon was a bit of a red herring, as once we get past the finnicky Frenchman, the leaderboard was populated by nine of the longest players on the PGA Tour: Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Tony Finau, Kevin Yu, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith, and Ludvig Aberg. Players without the requisite length at Torrey Pines under soft conditions are at such an extreme disadvantage, yet Pavon still proved elite long-iron play and putting still yield a reliable roadmap on a golf course with a higher greens-in-regulation percentage and a comical amount of shots from greater than 200 yards.

 

To recap, when Torrey Pines plays softer and more receptive, we want to decrease the importance of overall approach play and short game and increase the importance of pure distance, pure long-iron play, and putting. With conditions now looking more playable across Thursday and Friday, scoring average should return to the +0.5 to +1 zone, as opposed to the +1.67 we saw this year. Friday now looks to be the only difficult day, and I would still expect some relative spiciness in round two. I don’t imagine that we will see anything like Friday of 2024 where a stoppage of play was required, but conditions synonymous with the third round of Pebble Beach this year may come to fruition. For this reason, I have increased my weight on windy conditions and will certainly be looking to target some of the players who worked their way up the leaderboard on Saturday at Pebble (Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, etc.), yet the rest of the handicap falls in line with the 2024 theme: Distance, Long Iron Play, and Putting. Here’s my updated model to account for a softer Torrey Pines, but be sure to check in throughout the week in the discord if I see any changes to weather throughout the next few days.

 

Model


Off the Tee (18%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

  • L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)

  • L50 Driving Distance (8%)

  • L2 Years Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Driver Heavy, Long, Narrow Fairways, Thick Rough (5%)

Approach (26%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

  • L36 Strokes Gained Approach (10%)

  • L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (6%)

  • L75 Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)

Around the Green (9%) (PGA Tour average: 10%)

  • L50 Strokes Gained Around the Green (5%)

  • L50 Around the Green Proximity (4%)

Putting (18%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

  • L5 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa (6%)

  • L50 Putting 5-10 Feet (6%)

  • L50 Putting 10-15 Feet (6%)

Scoring Stats (16%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

  • L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: California (4%)

  • L3 Years Strokes Gained Total: Long and Difficult Golf Courses (7%)

  • L3 Years Strokes Gained Total: Extremely Windy Conditions (5%)

Comp Courses/Course History (13%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

  • L24 Torrey Pines South (8%)

  • L50 Big Four (Muirfield Village, Riviera, Quail Hollow, Bay Hill) (5%)

 

Top 20


  1. Scottie Scheffler

  2. Rory McIlroy

  3. Hideki Matsuyama

  4. Sungjae Im

  5. Viktor Hovland

  6. Tony Finau

  7. Patrick Cantlay

  8. Collin Morikawa

  9. Adam Scott

  10. Justin Thomas

  11. Tommy Fleetwood

  12. Taylor Pendrith

  13. Russell Henley

  14. Maverick McNealy

  15. Sam Stevens

  16. Ludvig Aberg

  17. Max Homa

  18. Sam Burns

  19. Thomas Detry

  20. Jason Day

 

Player Profle: Tony Finau

 

While these conditions play perfectly into the hands of Rory McIlroy, others such as Tony Finau, Ludvig Aberg, Taylor Pendrith, and even Adam Scott and Sam Stevens may represent the best discount version of this. Despite an up-and-down start to the 2025 season, Tony Finau remains one of the longest drivers of the ball in this field and is an elite long iron player. It should not come as a surprise that Finau has feasted at Torrey Pines in the past, with six top-10 finishes in 12 appearances. The only accolade missing from Finau’s resume is a victory, and I would not be surprised if that came to fruition this week. While Finau’s missed cut a few weeks ago at Torrey Pines was certainly disappointing, I’m willing to forgive for a horrendous putting week, which is always baked into the risk we take when deploying the six-time PGA Tour winner. What’s more encouraging is that Finau has shown flashes with the putter. In his last start, Finau actually gained 4.8 strokes putting on the bumpy Poa greens at Pebble Beach. If Finau can gain nearly five strokes putting at putting at Pebble Beach, he can certainly tame the capricious Poa at Torrey. Finau is always one of the most underrated high-wind players on Tour, and I actually have him as the No. 1 player in this field in winds north of 19 miles per hour over the last three years. Finau also finished top-10 at Torrey Pines in 2024, and I would not be surprised to see a similar leaderboard, featuring the likes of Finau, Pendrith, Aberg, and Stephan Jaeger chasing down Rory come Sunday afternoon in La Jolla.

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