2025 Farmer's Insurance Open Course Preview

The PGA Tour heads to beautiful La Jolla, California this week for the Farmer’s Insurance Open, a staple on the PGA Tour since 1952. It was not held at Torrey Pines (simultaneously one of the greatest architectural travesties and most beautiful walks in the country) until 1968, a public golf facility owned by the city of San Diego. I go to this event every single year, and I am extremely familiar with the golf course. I'll get into my architectural qualms below, but Torrey remains one of the most wonderful places to enjoy live golf in the country, and it's first time the players will actually be tested this year, although we can litigate the homogeneity of the challenge. Players will split their first two rounds between the North and South Courses, and those who make the cut will play the weekend on the South Course, the much more difficult of the two.

The field has suffered this year due to the injury of San Diego native, Xander Schauffele, as well as a big TGL match that features the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas, two players who regularly used to play the Farmer’s. With that being said, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, and Will Zalatoris, among others, will all be making the trip to La Jolla.

Former Winners

2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13) over Nicolai Hojgaard (-12)

• Winner Odds: Pavon (150/1)

Scoring Average

• South: +0.4

• North: -2.5

2023: Max Homa (-13) over Keegan Bradley (-11)

• Winner Odds: Homa (21/1)

Scoring Average

• South: +1.61

• North: -0.54

2022: Luke List (-15) over Will Zalatoris (-15) (Playoff)

• Winner Odds: List (80/1)

Scoring Average

• South: +0.35

• North: -0.54

2021: Patrick Reed (-14) over Viktor Hovland (-9)

• Winner Odds: Reed (24/1)

Scoring Average

• South: +1.35

• North: -1.86

2020: Mac Leishman (-15) over Jon Rahm (-14)

• Winner Odds: Leishman (55/1)

Scoring Average

• South: +0.54

• North: -1.43

5 Year Averages

• South: +0.85 (+0.35 to +1.61 range)

• North: -1.91 (-0.54 to -3.23 range)

The Basics

Course: Torrey Pines South Course

Location: La Jolla, California

Designer: William Bell (1957); Rees Jones re-design (2001 & 2006)

Par/Length: Par 72; 7,765 yards

Hazards: Water comes into play on 1 hole

Fairways: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Rye-grass

Rough: Kikuyu with Rye-grass, 3.5 inches

Greens: 5,000 square feet featuring Poa Annua, running 11.5 on the stimp

Course: Torey Pines North Course

Location: La Jolla, California

Designer: William Bell (1957), Tom Weiskopf (2016 re-design)

Par/Length: Par 72; 7,258 yards

Hazards: Water comes into play on 1 hole

Fairways: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Rye-grass

Rough: Kikuyu with Rye-grass, 3.5 inches

Greens: 5,000 square feet featuring Bent-grass, running 10.5 on the stimp

Golf Course

Ah, Torrey Pines, probably the golf course that I have the most love-hate relationship on the PGA Tour. Touching on the love aspect first, I absolutely adore San Diego. It’s one of my favorite cities in America and is always an appreciated palate cleanser for me when Los Angeles starts feeling a little too Los Angeles. I have attended this event for four years in a row, and it is genuinely one of my favorite weekends of the year. The hate aspect comes more in the form of disappointment, almost the way parents feel when a young child makes a mistake. It’s not their fault, but all I can do is call balls and strikes, and Torrey Pines is architectural malpractice, and the worst use of coastline in America. If Chicago Golf Club is the best work of architecture on the worst piece of property in America, Torrey Pines is the worst work of architecture on the best piece of property in America. Torrey Pines could easily be one of the greatest golf courses in America, but it doesn’t even sniff the top-100 due to its poor and incoherent routing. Torrey Pines is the encapsulation of the Dark Ages of Twentieth Century design, when challenge was the North Star of architectural philosophy. Torrey Pines features incredibly narrow fairways and small greens framed by thick rough and bunkering on both sides. Most holes are carbon copies of each of each other. There is zero structuring of penalty for big misses vs. small misses, zero personality or quirk, and close to zero relationship with one of the most dramatic coastlines in America. What this produces is dull, monotonous, execution-style golf, where the only true questions being posed are, “Can you carry the ball 320 yards off the tee,” and “Can you hit a high long iron that stops on a small green.” If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then you are likely to succeed at Torrey Pines. Due to the fact that most of the best players in the world would answer this question with a yes, Torrey Pines generally does an excellent job of separating talent. It is a far cry from the variance-filled putting contests that we have seen to start the season.

Last year, it ranked 9th out of 43 courses in difficulty, which was easier than its average, it generally ranks between the 5th and 12th most difficult course on the PGA Tour, always featuring inside the 10 most difficult set of par fours and par fives, while the par 3s actually provide somewhat of a respite. In terms of the actual layout, Torrey Pines South is absolutely one of the longest golf courses on Tour; each year of the last decade it has ranked as one of the 3 longest golf courses on the PGA Tour, featuring the third-longest set of par fours and fives on the PGA Tour, with 9 of the 10 par fours measuring over 430 yards.

Similar to The American Express, we'll focus the majority of our attention on the South course, which accounts for 75% of the action we will see next week. The North course does not possess shot-tracker (no comment), and it has historically played between 0.9 and 2.9 strokes easier than the South course. The reason for this is simple: it's about 500 yards shorter, and it also features much flatter and easier greens, surfaced with Bent-grass as opposed to Poa. The South course is short enough where players can still bomb away with driver everywhere and have their fair share of short to middle irons out of the rough. It's easier to bomb and gauge the North than the South based on the pure length discrepancy alone. The four par fives on North happen to be extremely gettable as well. The South, on the other hand, has played as one of the five toughest courses on the PGA Tour each of the last three years. The South Course embodies token Rees Jones architecture, essentially homogeneity of strategy.

Last year, both courses played slightly easier than average because San Diego had seen a lot of rain. The fairways and greens were more receptive, and while the rough more lush, this only furthered the importance of distance, as the fairways are so narrow at Torrey Pines that even the most accurate players lose their advantage. More on this later. Ultimately, I would expect drier conditions this year and slightly more challenging scoring than last year, with a higher emphasis on middle- to long-iron play and short game than 2024. Yet the formula at Torrey Pines remains the same (in order of importance):

1.    Middle to Long Iron Play

2.    Total Driving with an emphasis on Distance over Accuracy

3.    Poa experience/Putting from five to 15 feet

4.    Short game skill

5.    Course history/experience on long and difficult golf courses

If a player excels at three to four of those skills, they are likely a strong fit at Torrey Pines. If not, they are likely playing catch-up. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats

Off the Tee (15%)

Last year, driving distance at Torrey Pines was 292.3 yards, right around Tour average, and driving accuracy was 54.5%, 4.3 yards below Tour average with an average fairway width of just 28 yards. The Rees Jones design features of the most narrow and difficult-to-hit fairways on the PGA Tour.

With driver usage ballooning up to 80%, Torrey Pines is the very definition of a driver-heavy golf course. There is absolutely zero value in hitting less than driver on nearly any of the holes here, as big misses are seldom penalized more than little misses.

Last year, Torrey Pines ranked 7th out of 43 courses in SG: OTT difficulty, and it annually ranks inside the top 15 in difficulty in this category every single year.

Last year, it ranked 14th out of 43rd courses in missed fairway penalty, but it generally ranks middle of the pack, as well as 9th in rough penalty but dead last in non-rough penalty. This actually de-values the importance of driving accuracy. The fairways are so narrow that even the most accurate players are missing, and big misses are not penalized by trees or hazards. Last year, Torrey ranked dead last in non-rough penalty, and the prior year, it had the fourth lowest non-rough penalty on the PGA Tour, as well as ranking bottom 10 in penalty strokes per round. Ultimately, the optimal strategy off the tee at Torrey Pines is to forget about trying to hit the fairway (Rory McIlroy echoed this exact same sentiment at Oak Hill.) Unless you have elite accuracy (Morikawa), players who simply hit the ball long possess the greatest edge. The longest players in this field are Aldrich Potgieter, Taylor Pendrith, Ludvig Aberg, Alejandro Tosti, and Max Greyserman.  

Last year, 9 of the top 12 players ranked top-25 in driving distance, and under softer conditions where the golf course played even longer, it was even more important to be long off the tee, which explains a leaderboard populated by Nicolai Hojgaard, Jaeger, Knapp, Finau, Kevin Yu, Patrick Rodgers, Xander, Pendrith, and Ludvig Aberg. On the other hand, only Xander, Lashley and Rodgers ranked top-12 in driving accuracy. Ultimately, I would much rather have length than accuracy at Torrey Pines, but those who are short and inaccurate are truly behind the eight-ball here. The best players in this field off the tee under these conditions (long, difficult, narrow fairways) have been Luke List, Jhonattan Vegas, Alejandro Tosti, Gary Woodland, and Ludvig Aberg.

Approach (28%)

Last year, greens-in-regulation percentage at Torrey Pines was 64.8%, 1.1% below Tour average, which was higher than normal under softer and more receptive conditions. It ranked 19th out of 43 courses in greens in regulation percentage last year, when it traditionally ranks closer to 10th. I would expect a return to form this year with drier conditions and Southern California seeing limited rainfall, placing an even greater emphasis on middle to long iron play and short game than last year.

 With almost 75% of all approach shots coming from over 150 yards, Torrey Pines is one of the most aggressively correlated mid- to long-iron courses on the PGA Tour. At the end of the day, if I’m having to choose one skill set at Torrey Pines, give me middle- to long-iron play, with total driving in a close second. Yet even those who are short and inaccurate off the tee can make up for this deficiency with elite middle- to long-iron play.

• The best long-term players in this field from 150-200 yards are Kurt Kitayama, Victor Perez, Mac Meissner, Rico Hoey, and Tony Finau.

• The best long-term players in this field from 200 yards-plus are Luke Clanton, Michael Thorbjornsen, Kurt Kitayama, Sami Valimaki, and Mac Meissner.

Around the Green (12%)

Last year, Torrey Pines ranked 33rd out of 43 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and it generally ranks middle of the pack in this category. In general, Torrey Pines is not a difficult around-the-green course the way it is a challenging putting course. It ranks 40th out of 43 courses from the fairway, 23rd from the rough, and 31st from the bunkers. Yet every single year, around-the-green play at Torrey Pines remains above average in the strokes gained breakdown due to the lower-than-average greens in regulation percentage as well as the low make percentage inside 10 feet, which is directly correlated to the importance of short game. Torrey Pines is hardest golf course on the PGA Tour in terms of putting inside 15 feet, which increases the expected value of tap-ins, since four to eight footers are less a foregone conclusion than they would be at other courses. It’s just a math equation. If the make percentage between four and 15 feet is demonstrably lower than Tour average, than over the course of 72 hole, players who can consistently chip it to two feet instead of five feet will create separation. The player who chips it to five feet vs. the player who chips it to one foot is in far more danger at Torrey Pines than any other course on Tour, placing a massive advantage on those who can consistently chip it to tap-in range. The best overall around-the-green players in this field are Beau Hossler, Hideki Matsuyama, Jacob Bridgeman, Mackenzie Hughes, and Harry Hall.

Putting (19%)

Last year, Torrey Pines ranked second out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, fourth from inside 5 feet, first from 5-15 feet, and 15th from 15 feet-plus. Torrey Pines is the most difficult putting course on Tour inside 15 feet. The average make percentage on the PGA Tour from four to eight feet is 69.1%, compared to 63.7% at Torrey Pines.

The reason for this is simple. Torrey Pines features purely West Coast Poa, which is not to be confused with the East Coast Poa/Bent-grass blend that we see at Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands. West Coast Poa is a splotchier, darker green that we see also see at Riviera and Pebble Beach. A lot of players do not jibe with this surface, which has been described as a "confidence" grass. Especially in the afternoons after the greens have faced a lot of foot traffic, it is commonplace for putts that are not hit with authority to stumble off their lines and bounce more than they typically would on a more consistent Poa Trivialis or Bent-grass.

This quote from Brandt Snedeker always stuck with me: "What I love most about Poa is you have to be aggressive and you have to hit a putt almost perfect. You got to give it a chance to go in, you got to get it rolling hard on the green. And I think that's what my stroke does best, because I hit them aggressive, get the ball rolling really fast. When you do that, the ball holds its line, if you miss a putt a little bit or hit a weak putt, it's going to bump off. And I love it because it eliminates half the guys, like Kevin Kisners (catching strays!) because they don't like and they don't want to be on it. So it makes my putting even better. Because they don't want to be a part of it and when they get a bad bounce they think the greens are awful, which helps me." The best players in this field on West Coast Poa greens over the last three years have been Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Max Homa, Peter Malnati, and Mackenzie Hughes.

While Torrey Pines often gets described as this elite tee-to-green test where putting is de-valued and players such as Luke List and Will Zalatoris can feast, there are just as many examples of elite Poa putters/five to 15-foot specialists such as Justin Rose, Jason Day, and Max Homa finding a distinct advantage in their ability to hole short putts. While Torrey Pines creates a ton of separation with its distinctive tee-to-green play, I still have an above-average weight on putting due to the extreme degree of difficulty inside 15 feet. The best long-term putters in this field from five to 15 feet are Jesper Svensson, Nate Lashley, Andrew Putnam, Chris Gotterup, and Taylor Montgomery.

Scoring Stats (10%)

Each of the last 10 years, Torrey Pines has played as one of the top three longest courses on the PGA Tour. This goes hand in hand with our already belabored skill set of powerful driving and long-iron play. Yet certain players (Patrick Reed, Brian Harman, Brandt Snedeker, Mackenzie Hughes, Alex Noren) have been able to crack the code on these courses without the prototypical Rahm/Rory power and high ball-flight. The players who have gained the most strokes on long and difficult courses over the past three years have been Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Ludvig Aberg, and Will Zalatoris.

I'd also mention the value in some West Coast/California experience. I do believe players who grew up putting on Poa greens possess a huge advantage here. This may be worth paying attention to with newcomers. We've already mentioned how Poa is a confidence surface. A lack of experience on Poa is a glaring red flag. Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala, Xander Schauffe: all PAC/WCC guys. Their success at Torrey is not a coincidence. More specifically, Xander, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Phil Mickelson, J.J. Spaun, and Michael Kim are all San Diego guys who have experienced varying degrees of success at their hometown event. The best players in this field in California over the last five years have been Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, and Jason Day.

Comp Courses/Course History (15%)

Torrey Pines features an above-average course history correlation, but it does not rank inside the top 10. Matthieu Pavon and Nicolai Hojgaard, who finished first and second at this event last year, were both making their Torrey Pines debut. We also have seen players such as Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, and Will Zalatoris all find success at Torrey Pines immediately given their elite total driving and long iron play. There is very little nuance or actual strategy to this course. It is all out in front of you, and it is the most glaring example of a pure execution test. Still, experience on Poa greens is always valuable, and we have seen certain players get extremely comfortable here over the years. The best players in this field at Torrey Pines have been Jason Day, Tony Finau, Ryan Palmer, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Rose.

There are many different categories of courses on the PGA Tour: short, positional courses, birdie-fests/putting contests, Pete Dye/TPC style execution tests, and finally, long and difficult golf courses that are generally represented by the Big Four (five of you include Torrey Pines): Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, Bay Hill, and Riviera. There are certainly some stylistic and agronomical differences to these long and difficult golf courses, but all five emphasize total driving and middle- to long-iron play, which go hand in hand with high scoring and a lower greens-in-regulation percentage. If you can dominate from tee to green on these courses, you can play well anywhere. The best players on the “Big Four” or what I would call, “Big Boy Golf Specialists” have been:

1.    Max Homa

2.    Collin Morikawa

3.    Jason Day

4.    Harris English

5.    Sungjae Im

6.    Gary Woodland

7.    Will Zalatoris

8.    Tony Finau

9.    Ludvig Aberg

10. Hideki Matsuyama

Unsurprisingly, every single one of these 10 players have also recorded a top-10 finish at Torrey Pines.

Model

Off the Tee (15%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)

• L50 Driving Distance (5%)

• L2 Years Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Driver Heavy, Narrow Fairways (5%)

Approach (28%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Approach (12%)

• L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (6%)

• L75 Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)

Around the Green (12%) (PGA Tour average: 12%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Around the Green (8%)

• L50 Around the Green Proximity (4%)

Putting (19%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa (7%)

• L50 Putting 5-10 Feet (6%)

• L50 Putting 10-15 Feet (6%)

Scoring Stats (10%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: California (4%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Total: Long, Difficult Golf Courses (6%)

Comp Courses/Course History (15%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 Torrey Pines North/South (8%)

• L50 Comp Courses (‘The Big Four’: Quail Hollow, Riviera, Muirfield Village, Bay Hill)

Top 20

1.    Sungjae Im

2.    Hideki Matsuyama

3.    Ludvig Aberg

4.    Tony Finau

5.    Collin Morikawa

6.    Joseph Bramlett

7.    Aaron Rai

8.    Max Homa

9.    Thomas Detry

10. Maverick McNealy

11. Will Zalatoris

12. Jason Day

13. Taylor Pendrith

14. Si Woo Kim

15. Doug Ghim

16. Nate Lashley

17. Shane Lowry

18. Sam Stevens

19. Daniel Berger

20. Gary Woodland

Player Profile: Ludvig Aberg

Since Ludvig Aberg first emerged on the PGA Tour as one of best overall drivers of the ball in the sport, I had him pegged as a future Torrey Pines champion. I almost bet him last year at this event, but I was concerned about the lack of Poa experience, despite the fact that Torrey is a tremendous tee-to-green fit for his skill-set. Aberg proceeded to finish ninth last year, gaining in all major strokes gained categories except short game, putting together an impressive professional debut on Poa greens. Aberg proceeded to finish runner-up at Pebble Beach, another West Coast golf course with capricious Poa greens. Coming off a fifth-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions to open his season where he gained strokes in all four major categories, it’s finally time for Aberg to flex his muscles on a big boy golf course that will accentuate his elite total driving ability and long iron play. Similar to Jon Rahm who settled into a comfortable marriage at Torrey Pines, I’m expecting a long run of prosperity in San Diego for the young Swede.