2025 Cognizant Classic Final Thoughts

Weather

I feel incredibly confident in my course preview from the Monday article, and I didn’t need to hop on a flight to Palm Beach Gardens to get to the same answers as those who spent eight hours there! The golf course is going to be wet and soft, the missed fairway penalty remains incredibly low with manageable over-seeded rough, and the days of a challenging Honda Classic have long passed us by. This is by no means a pure birdie-fest, as there is still enough challenge on the par-3 holes, but I would expect very similar scoring conditions to last year when the tournament was won at 17-under par with a -1.1 scoring average. I would even lean to say the golf course will play a touch easier than last year, as we saw a tremendous amount of wind last year on Friday when the course played +0.3 strokes over par, and the course will not play +0.3 strokes over par in round two this go-around. Friday still looks a lot more cumbersome than Thursday, and I would expect players to get off to a hot start on Thursday with some very low scores, before PGA National pushes back on Friday.

Key Pieces of Advice

• Take Under Round Scores in Round 1, come back on the Overs in Round 2

• Do NOT go all in on a weather edge, but if I had to guess which one experiences a slight advantage, it would be PM/AM

Scoring Average: -1.2

Winning Score: -17

Core

Russell Henley, $10,700: This is the worst slate of the year, and it brings me absolutely no joy to report that I must endorse the two highest-owned plays on the slate in Daniel Berger and Russell Henley. Allow me to make the case why. First of all, let’s put a stop to the narrative that Berger and Henley are demonstrably higher owned than the other players around them. They are not. You are not getting leverage on Shane. You are not getting leverage on Pendy, and you are certainly not getting leverage on Sepp. The only high-priced player that fits a leverage argument is Sungjae Im, and I think he’s a serviceable option by default. Russell Henley and Daniel Berger are the best plays above $9K by a healthy margin, and to deviate, you are sacrificing worse course fits for negligible ownership. I will only have a few lineups where I play Berger and Henley together, and I won’t play them together in my main single entry, but we can put an end to the narrative that these lineups will be duped as well. My few Berger/Henley lineups will not have a single player higher owned than 11% Billy Horschel. The space is continually getting sharper, and the course breakdown from Mexico was spot on, not just from me, but from everyone else that played Potagigi, or Alex Smalley, or Nicolai Hojgaard, or Aaron Rai, or Ben Griffin. The list goes on. Pivoting off of Henley/Berger because they are slightly higher owned than Lowry/Straka is insane behavior unless you truly believe Lowry and Straka are stronger options than Berger and Henley. My numbers don’t. Henley is the best iron player in this field and one of the best Bermuda putters in this field on a golf course that heavily accentuates middle-iron play and putting. He ranks top-five in this field in strokes gained tee to green on water-heavy courses and strokes gained total in Florida. He was a slam for us at Pebble on a similarly short, less-than-driver course that highlighted middle-iron approach play, and I would be surprised if the result is any different this week. Henley has been my guy for years, and while I will admit I love him in the sevens at major championships more than I love him in these spots, anyone else in the core would be entirely disingenuous.

Daniel Berger, $9,900: While I certainly have more confidence in Russell Henley’s core, much of the same pro-Henley case pertains to Daniel Berger as well. Berger to Straka is not a pivot. Berger to Pendrith is not a pivot. You can like Straka and Pendrith more than Berger, but you are not gaining significant field leverage. My Sunday Podcast case for Berger was the right one, this is as close to a perfect spot as it comes for a player that has been trending in the right direction for months. We were on him in Phoenix when he finished runner-up and possessed a real opportunity to win the event on the back-nine on Sunday, and he followed it up with a 12th-place finish at Torrey Pines on a golf course that I actually quite hated for him due to his lower ball-flight. Now Berger returns to a Southeast Bermuda course with far more middle irons than long irons, and he has already recorded three top-five finishes in eight appearances. He’s already won twice at TPC Southwind -- an incredibly similar golf course to PGA National both in scoring conditions, required skill-set, and architecture -- and the home game narrative is strong as well for a player who lives just down the road in the greater Palm Beach area. We are buying Berger on the upswing while catching Straka and Pendrith on the downswing, on what I believe to be a close to perfect track for the former. This is a rare 'play the best plays at the top and don’t overthink it' week for me. Take the stands elsewhere, there is more than enough opportunity.

Billy Horschel, $7,900: I could have easily gone Kitayama or Lucas Glover for this spot, but let’s give the nod to Billy Horschel, who I believe may possess the most win equity in this field south of $9K this week. After an up-and-down West Coast, Billy Boy now returns to Southeastern Bermuda, the agronomy that he has been historically most comfortable on over the course of his career. Billy ranks top-25 in long-term Bermuda putting, tee-to-green play on water-heavy courses, and strokes gained total in Florida. Yet what really put Horschel over the edge for me this week as a core play is the recent uptick in approach. Even in a missed cut at Torrey Pines, which forced his hand with far more long irons than what will be required at PGA National, Horschel still gained over two strokes on approach. Even without being an elite approach player, Horschel has still feasted on middle-iron-intensive courses such as Waialae and Sedgefield due to his comfortability off the tee in playing to the right numbers, and I still trust him to make more 15-footers on Bermuda than nearly any other player in this field. I feel I’m getting the three best Bermuda players in this field in my core and am still left with tremendous space and opportunity to take some bigger shots. Don’t overthink it this week, there are some non-functional, horrendous plays between 7.5K and 9.5K this week. Billy is a slam dunk.

Doug Ghim, $7,200: I’m already fighting off the narrative of Henley and Berger being too popular this week, so what were you expecting for this final spot? Is Ryan Gerard safer than Doug Ghim? Sure. Will he be the most popular player below 7.5K and paired with Henley and Berger everywhere? Also yes. I concede that part of the strategy implied with Berger and Henley up top is a necessity to fade most of the popular choices in the $7K range, and I will always die on the hill that the optimal strategy is to play the best plays at the top, ownership-agnostic, and find your leverage by pivoting off the groupthink in the bottom tiers. Doug Ghim continues to be one of the best overall approach and middle-iron players in this field, ranking top-10 in long-term proximity from 125 to 200 yards. He possesses a strong record of success on similar, positional Bermuda courses, with an impressive resume at TPC Sawgrass, and a 16th at PGA National last year, where he actually putted well too! The easier than expected conditions will certainly place more pressure on Ghim’s putter this year, but it will also further accentuate his elite middle-iron play. Similar to Berger, you have to take the good with the bad there. On a golf course where my prevailing narrative all week has been, “Middle iron play, middle iron play, middle iron play,” Doug Ghim remains the best discount option with elite upside in this category, and he’s coming off another strong approach week in Phoenix. I’m nothing if not consistent.

Pool

• Russell Henley, $10,700

• Daniel Berger, $9,900

• Sungjae Im, $9,800

• Denny McCarthy, $9,300

• Keith Mitchell, $9,100

• Kurt Kitayama, $8,300

• Billy Horschel, $7,900

• Brian Harman, $7,700

• Jhonattan Vegas, $7,500

• Eric Cole, $7,200

• Doug Ghim, $7,200

• C.T. Pan, $7,200

• Kevin Roy, $7,200

• Joel Dahmen, $7,000

• Joe Highsmith, $7,000

• Adam Svensson, $6,900

• Andrew Putnam, $6,900 

Cognizant Bets

Outrights (1U total)

• Russell Henley (25/1) (0.3U) (win: 7.8)

• Daniel Berger (30/1) (0.25U) (win: 7.7)

• Billy Horschel (55/1) (0.14U) (win: 7.7)

• Lucas Glover (60/1) (0.13U) (win: 7.8)

• Ryan Gerard (80/1) (0.1U) (win: 8)

• Adam Svensson (120/1) (0.065U) (win: 7.8)

Matchups (1U each)

• Kurt Kitayama (-115) over Max Greyserman

• Ryan Gerard (-110) over Mackenzie Hughes

• Lucas Glover (-120) over Austin Eckroat

• Billy Horschel (-105) over Patrick Rodgers

Top 20 (3.5U total)

• Russell Henley (+115) (1U)

• Daniel Berger (+120) (1U)

• Ben Griffin (+190) (1U)

• Sam Ryder (+400) (0.5U)

OAD: Shane Lowry

2024-2025

Outrights: -15.45U

Positionals: -9.25U

Matchups: +8.08U

Total: -16.62U

Risk: 136U, Win: -16.62U

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI