2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Final Thoughts

Weather

I’ve poked around a lot this week. Just because I am using the Windfinder images does not mean I only look at this website, you lunatics. Windfinder provides the most user-friendly images in terms of interpreting how wind patterns interact and change over the course of a day, hour by hour. They will be the images I use in every article. Okay, now that we have that out of the way, I would say that players on Pebble Thursday have an advantage. I’ve spelled this out in the course preview article, but Pebble Beach features far more coastal holes and is more exposed to the wind. Spyglass is a harder golf course, but the only time that Pebble nears in scoring average are on extremely windy days. While I would not say that Friday is an extremely windy day, I am still shooting for a 65%-35% of my player pool with the Pebble/Spyglass split.

All indications from the grounds display that the rough is down and greens are firmer this week. This was already in the calculus and does not dramatically change the type of player I am looking for this week. If anything, I would even give a more significant bump to approach play from inside 125 yards, and I truly believe that this is a golf course where you can drive the ball anywhere off the tee and pick your number in on approach. With firmer conditions this year, the golf course will certainly play more challenging. The weather over the weekend looks a lot more like Friday than it does like Thursday. We are talking some light rain, and consistent wind speeds in the 20 mph zone. I think the -19.5 winning score is a fair number, and I would take a slight under with -19. Thursday is the day to go out and get the golf course, especially if you are on Pebble.

Winning Score Prediction: -19

Core

Collin Morikawa, $10,200: I deeply considered blowing up everything last night and playing Scottie Scheffler, but let’s roll with Collin Morikawa in this spot. Morikawa was the final man off my betting card, as I decided to opt for Pendrith and Day, over the former PGA Championship winner at Harding Park (Northern California, shorter, firmer golf course with Poa greens). Let’s use this opportunity to highlight Morikawa here, who I believe is a tremendous course fit and truly built for Pebble Beach. Outside of his experience navigating the small, firm, Poa greens and dangling Cypress trees at Harding Park, these specific conditions at Pebble are tremendously conducive to Morikawa’s skill-set. The golf course is playing as firm as ever this ever this year, placing a huge premium on distance control with middle to short irons, and I’m not sure there’s a player I would trust more than Morikawa at separating this way. Morikawa remains amongst the best wedge players in this field, and he opened the season with a runner-up at the Sentry where he gained 3.1 strokes off the tee, 5.9 strokes on approach and 4.4 strokes putting. Reports from the ground indicate that it has been absolute flushing session all week from Morikawa, and even with the rising ownership, there are more than enough opportunities to get different further down the board.

Patrick Cantlay, $9,400: I thought long and hard about Ludvig for this spot, and even Tommy Fleetwood, who I also believe is a tremendous option from a leverage standpoint. Yet let’s continue to roll out the Disgusting Brother in the early part of the season. I love him on the West Coast, and I love him even more at Pebble Beach. In eight appearances at Pebble, Cantlay has made every single cut, with six finishes in the top 25, and four top-12 finishes in a row. The only reason why I did not bet Cantlay to win this week is that I’m still not sold on the approach play. Despite a fifth-place finish at the American Express, Cantlay still lost 1.3 strokes on approach, although it is wonderful to start to see him start making putts again. The best version of Cantlay is one of the 10 best putters in the world, and he is still responsible for the best recorded putting week in Tour history at the 2022 BMW Championship, where he stared down Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff (I know, you had Bryson too that week.) Yet the single largest reason why Cantlay has been kept out of the winner’s circle over the past 1.5 years is that he has turned from an elite putter to a good putter, and from a very good iron player to an inconsistent, but good in spurts iron player. Even with approach deficiencies, Cantlay still opened the season with a 15th and a fifth, and I remain incredibly bullish on his long-term upside this year. I feel good about my 40/1 Masters ticket. Time to let the CLV merchants eat with a strong run to open the season. No better place for take-off than Pebble.

Russell Henley, $7,900: If we are looking for a discounted version of Morikawa, Russell Henley is that guy. In fact, his wedge numbers are even better than Collin’s, as Henley ranks first in this field in proximity inside 100 yards, and fifth in this field in proximity 125 yards. If the theme this week is controlling short irons into small, firm greens, Russell Henley should be in every single lineup, as there is not a player in this price remotely equipped to handle that challenge as the Georgia native. Long-time readers know that Henley has been incredibly kind to us. He was a core play at two majors last year and finished top-10 in both. He was been one of my most profitable golfers in DFS and I (along with Data Golf) continue to believe that he is underrated. Not only will Henley win this year, but he will probably notch another top-10 at a major, even though I like the 2025 venues less for him than I did last year. I don’t love his course fit at Bethpage, but he is without a shadow of a doubt one of the 12 best American golfers in the world right now, and one of the three to five best approach players in the entire sport. My only lingering concern is that he has had far more success on the East Coast than the West, although Henley has notched two top-20s in six appearances in Pebble Beach. If this exact same golf course was Bermuda, Henley would be 20% owned this week, and although he is less proven on Poa, I believe more in his approach play than nearly any other player in this field.

Denny McCarthy, $7,000: I’ve been shouting about Denny McCarthy in this spot since my preview that I first posted on Saturday night, as I see the requisite steam has now come for our prince. I am not a Denny guy at all, and I believe this is my first time betting him outright to win a tournament. As crazy as it sounds, I do believe that he is completely live to win this thing. Even in firmer conditions, Pebble is still a golf course where the best putter in the field can lift and separate, like we saw Wyndham Clark do. Clark gained nearly 10 strokes putting through three rounds last year and entirely blacked out with the flat-stick en route to a course-record 60 on Saturday. There are few players in this field who possess this sort of upside with putter, and Denny is one of those players, ranking third in this field in Poa putting. Yet the real reason to get behind Denny this week is the improved approach play. The 31-year-old gained 4.5 strokes on approach at the Sony Open, another golf course with firm greens and a ton of shots inside 150 yards. Now he returns to a golf course where he has already recorded two top-12 finishes, including a fourth in 2023. All systems are a go.

Player Pool

• Collin Morikawa, $10,200

• Ludvig Aberg, $9,900

• Hideki Matsuyama, $9,600

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,400

• Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100

• Wyndham Clark, $8,600

• Tony Finau, $8,200

• Shane Lowry, $8,000

• Russell Henley, $7,900

• Beau Hossler, $7,600

• Adam Scott, $7,600

• Max Homa, $7,400

• Thomas Detry, $7,400

• Denny McCarthy, $7,000

• Keith Mitchell, $6,900

• Eric Cole, $6,800

• Andrew Novak, $6,700

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $6,400

• Justin Rose, $6,300

• Lee Hodges, $6,200

Betting Card

Outrights (1U total)

• Justin Thomas (17/1) (0.46U) (win: 7.8)

• Jason Day (35/1) (0.225U) (win: 7.9)

• Taylor Pendrith (50/1) (0.15U) (win: 7.5)

• Tom Hoge (90/1) (0.09U) (win: 8.1)

• Denny McCarthy (100/1) (0.075U) (win: 7.5)

Matchups (1U each)

• Hideki Matsuyama (-120) over Sungjae Im

• Tommy Fleetwood (-125) over Sam Burns

• Jason Day (-120) over Keegan Bradley

• Taylor Pendrith (-140) over Viktor Hovland

• Russell Henley (-125) over Max Greyserman

• Tom Hoge (+105) over Harris English

Top 5

• Scottie Scheffler (+110) (1U)

Top 10

• Justin Thomas (+150) (1U)

OAD: Jason Day

2024-2025

Outrights: -10.45U

Positionals: -9.1U

Matchups: +5.46U

Total: -14.09U

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI