The American Express Final Thoughts

Weather

Really nothing to note here, other than it will be fairly cold, and due to the new greens and bunkers on the Stadium Course, I’m expecting slightly more challenging conditions this year. For showdown purposes, the scoring difference between the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club will be more pronounced than prior years.

Winning Score Prediction: -27

Core

Sungjae Im, $10,300: Truth be told, this type of play has murdered me the first two weeks of the season. I was knocked out from big money on arrival at both the Sentry and the Sony Open due to core selections on Xander Schauffele and Corey Conners. In theory, the case for Sungjae isn’t all that different from the case for Schauffele and Connors. All three are the best statistical fits at their respective venues, the No. 1 player in my model, with great recent form, great course history, and high ownership. Fading “the most obvious choice” on principle alone in the most high variance sport is a theory I can’t really object to, but at some point, the numbers will start working at the top of the board the way they have been at the bottom. I’m going to take one more big swing at the top with the player I have with the highest top-10 equity in the field, and if this strategy murders me again, it’s truly back to the drawing board. In six appearances at this event, Sungjae has failed to finish outside of the top-25. He also ranks fourth in strokes gained total on the comp courses, with a win and a runner-up at TPC Summerlin and TPC Twin Cities, and multiple top-10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale and TPC Sawgrass. He ranks second on desert golf courses, third on TPC golf courses, sixth on water-heavy golf courses, sixth in birdie or better percentage, and second in easy scoring conditions. He’s coming off a third-place finish at the Sentry where he gained five strokes off the tee and 4.8 strokes putting. Long overdue for a win, Sungjae now arrives at what I might argue is the best golf course fit for him on the entire schedule in excellent form. Hopefully sanity is restored this week.

Tony Finau, $9,500: I had a very difficult time deciding between Finau, Wyndham Clark, and Tom Kim for this spot, and I’ve ultimately settled on Finau, as he is the superior approach player of this group. If recent approach play is my underlying theme of the week given the colder conditions, and Finau remains a top-five iron player in this field. It was encouraging to see him shake the rust off with a 15th at the Sentry, where he actually looked quite impressive on the greens, and he now returns to a golf course where he has recorded four top-25 finishes in seven appearances. TPC Twin Cities is also a big theme for me this week, as three out of my four core plays have recorded a win or runner-up finish at the host of the 3M Open. For what it’s worth, Finau has also been tremendous at TPC Scottsdale, and he ranks sixth on desert golf courses, eighth on TPC courses, second on water-heavy courses, and seventh in easy scoring conditions. In terms of recent approach play, course history, comp course history, and palatable price and ownership, Finau may check the most boxes for me of any player on the slate.

Brian Harman, $8,200: Brian Harman was kind to us last week as one of my favorite leverage plays on the slate, recording a 21st-place finish at the Sony Open that could have been way better had he not stumbled to finish line on Sunday. Yet now Harman returns to a golf course where he has recorded six top-25 finishes and three top-10 finishes in 11 appearances, including a third in 2022. Now a year and a half removed from victory at the Open Championship, Harman is more than due to find his way back to the winner’s circle, and his comfortability at a slower pace is hard to ignore given the noteworthy course history. If Vegas is more volatile version of Finau, Harman feels a lower-floor version of Sungjae. Neither Harman now Sungjae present the elite approach upside of Finau or Vegas, but they make up for it with a more balanced and well-rounded skill-set that includes a strong track record of success on Poa Trivialis greens as well.

Jhonattan Vegas, $7,600: Coming off a +10 approach performance at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, I was surprised there hasn’t been more buzz on Jhonattan Vegas this week. I understand the recent course history leaves a lot to be desired, but Vegas has already proven his meddle in the Pro-Am format with a victory in his debut appearance here, albeit in 2011. If anything, the brand new greens at the Stadium Course should play more into Vegas’ skill-set than others given his elite approach upside. We were on Vegas last year for his victory at the 3M Open, which remains one of my strongest comp courses for the Stadium Course. Both golf courses require aggressive play off the tee and the necessity to take advantage of plentiful birdie opportunities while avoiding land mines. If Vegas can conquer TPC Twin Cities with ease, he should be fully comfortable with the Stadium Course, especially in a colder and firmer year that should far emphasize recent approach play over putting. At the end of the day, I’m getting a top-10 driver of the ball in this field and a top-10 approach player in this field at sub-10% ownership and below $8K in an event he has won before, and he is the defending champion at my number one comparative course. A slam if I’ve ever seen one.

Pool

• Sungjae Im, $10,300

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,600

• Tony Finau, $9,500

• Si Woo Kim, $9,100

• Kurt Kitayama, $8,700

• J.J. Spaun, $8,600

• Brian Harman, $8,200

• Tom Hoge, $7,800

• Ben Griffin, $7,800

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,600

• Jhonattan Vegas, $7,600

• Keith Mitchell, $7,400

• Mac Meissner, $7,400

• Mark Hubbard, $7,400

• Doug Ghim, $7,300

• Alex Smalley, $7,200

• Andrew Putnam, $7,200

• Matt Kuchar, $6,900

• Matti Schmid, $6,900

• Carson Young, $6,700

Betting Card

Outrights

Sam Burns (20/1) (0.375U) (win: 7.5)

Wyndham Clark (35/1) (0.225U) (win: 7.9)

Eric Cole (55/1) (0.13U) (win: 7.4)

Ben Griffin (60/1) (0.125U) (win: 7.5)

Mac Meissner (80/1) (0.095U) (win: 7.6)

Matti Schmid (170/1) (0.05U) (win: 8.5)

Matchups (1U each)

Wyndham Clark (-110) over Max Greyserman (DK)

Eric Cole (-105) over Will Zalatoris (DK)

Si Woo Kim (-125) over Cameron Young

Brian Harman (-110) over J.T. Poston (DK)

Mac Meissner (-125) over Kevin Yu

Matt Kuchar (-120) over Justin Lower

Top 20

Sam Burns (+105) (1U)

Ben Griffin (+240) (0.5U)

Matti Schmid (+500) (0.5U)

OAD

Justin Thomas