Andy Lack's 2025 Masters Final Thoughts

Weather

As we sit here now on Wednesday afternoon, the course appears to be drying out somewhat, but I do not believe that this will be a firm, fast, and spicy Masters like we saw last year, where the scoring average neared two strokes over par. The scoring average on Friday of last year cleared +3, and the Saturday scoring was not far behind. I would be genuinely surprised if we saw a +3 (or even a +2) day this year, as there just simply isn’t going to be enough wind. Friday will most definitely be more challenging than Thursday, but 15 mph wind gusts on a relatively soft golf course will not induce a scoring average north of +1.5 in my opinion. Some notes that I received just now from the StickMan after spending Wednesday morning at the golf course:

• greens rolling around 12.5, still receptive

• fairways are still soft, particularly by Rae’s creek. Rollout getting to 10-20 across the course.

• first cut is damp. Less spin control.

• course will probably play 7,750-7,850 Thursday

• The forecast calls for quarter of an inch of rain Friday, which probably slows down greens in the morning to a 11.5-12. Fairways will probably roll back to 5-15 roll OTT. Let’s call it 7,850-7,950 with the stronger winds.

• But very dry weather and sun will help the course bounce back for Saturday. They will have SubAir working to try to get the greens to 13-14 for the weekend. Fairways will be drying out well by afternoon. ~7,675-7,750

My interpretation here is that we will most certainly see a longer, softer, and easier Masters than last year, but the general character of the golf course and our handicap should remain unchanged. Am I absolutely giving a bump to higher carry distance players at the bottom of the board such as Taylor Pendrith and Davis Thompson, who can yield their power as a significant weapon? Of course, but the golf course is no different than Torrey Pines in the sense that avenues still exist for the Denny McCarthy and Harris English types.

Winning Score Prediction: -13

Scoring Average Prediction: +0.85

Core

Collin Morikawa, $10,500: Collin Morikawa has entered the 2024 Xander Schauffele zone in betting and daily fantasy, and he has become one of the more divisive options on the slate. There are now simply those who believe he is a Beta Liberal Dog Dressing Cuck Loser, and his recent expression of disdain towards media attention and has only perpetuated this narrative. The fact that he’s not winning doesn’t help his case either. Morikawa has now gone over 500 days since his last PGA Tour victory, and when you exclaim that you don’t owe the fans or media “anything,” yet also don’t have the hardware to fall back, you become an easy target. The disdain is largely warranted, as Collin Morikawa should be winning more, this is easily the most complete golf that he has played in his entire career. Morikawa has improved significantly around the greens and reached peak levels on approach once again.

The two-time major champion is coming off a 10th-place finish at the Players Championship where he gained 3.1 strokes off the tee and 8.1 strokes putting. He’s now gained over three strokes off the tee in back-to-back starts, and over a stroke on approach in every single start this year as well. The narrative on Morikawa was similar Players week. Phenomenal course fit, a tremendous amount of support in the sharp community, similar price and ownership, and he “rewarded” with what can only be decribed as the most likely outcome, a 10th-place finish. The reason why I am coring Morikawa is because I believe he has the third-highest floor in the field and he does not handicap your building strategy the way that Rory and Scottie both do. Morikawa will waltz his way into the top 10 at the Masters this year the same way that Xander did in 2024, and if he wants to get the party started early with a victory prior to the upcoming majors, I wouldn’t be upset about it. I do believe that Morikawa is the third-best player in the field right now. I do believe he has the third-highest win probability and the third highest top-10 rate. I do believe the lineups I can build with Morikawa as a first man in as opposed to Scottie are overall stronger and more balanced. I expect him to take care of business with a top-eight finish, and anything on top of that is gravy.

Justin Thomas, $9,600: I suppose by default, Justin Thomas is my pick to win the 2025 Masters. Do I have concerns about his ability to put four rounds together? Of course. Do I have concerns about his ability to make enough high-leverage five-10 footers down the stretch? Obviously. Yet at the end of the day, Justin Thomas checks pretty much every key box I am looking for this week. Elite recent approach form? Check. Absolutely phenomenal short game? Check. Above average carry distance? Check. Course history and experience at Augusta National? Check. Did not contend last year and less media attention (no Tiger circuis to worry about either)? Also check. I think he’s putting a lot better than folks want to give him credit for as well, and he has now shown on multiple occasions that he can gain upwards of four or five strokes putting, which is certainly above the range required to win the tournament. I was on Justin Thomas at the 2022 PGA Championship, the site of his last major championship victory (and victory in general), and all of the warning signs that existed in 2022 are present in current day as well. The approach play is close to peak JT levels, the short game hasn’t missed a beat, the golf course is wide enough and soft enough that his driver shouldn’t get him into any major trouble, and he has shown more than enough signs on the greens that his putter can keep pace as well. I believe I am getting the fourth most likely player to win this tournament at a reasonable price and ownership, and a Collin/JT start simply leaves me with the most options to construct deadly six of sixes, while also possessing the winner. I know our guys will put us in position every week, but it’s about damn time we had a good Sunday runout. Why not us?

Patrick Cantlay, $8,700: Last week, Patrick Cantlay ripped my heart out and tore it into a million pieces. I was on pace for a very strong week, and the eight that Cantlay made on his 72nd hole of the tournament caused a 3.5 unit swing on my betting and sent my DFS lineups tumbling in the wrong direction as well. What’s even more frustrating about the outcome is that the Valero was right there for the taking for him. Cantlay missed multiple putts inside three feet last week, and his ball-striking was more than good enough to run away with that thing. The Disgusting Brother gained 5.7 strokes on approach, his best iron performance of the season, and Cantlay has now gained over two strokes on approach in five straight starts. His approach play is fully back, and Cantlay is also beginning to drive the ball at an elite level as well. As heartbreaking as last week was, Cantlay was my pick to win this event in December, and given his recent ball-striking, I have no choice but to hang on until the bitter end. If you were to tell me that I would be able to get a sub-9K Cantlay at the Masters in this approach form at sub-15% ownership, I would tell you it’s the best play on the slate. And I firmly believe that it might very well be. I’ve already tasted rock bottom and gotten my nuts punched in with Cantlay more times than I count, but I am nothing if not loyal, and I certainly won’t be hopping off before the miracle happens.

Taylor Pendrith, $6,700: Taylor Pendrith has been incredibly kind to us all season, and he was a core play for us in Houston in his last start, which resulted in a top-five finish. The reason I played Pendrith in Houston was straightforward. Memorial Park is a long, soft, driver-heavy, long-iron-intensive golf course with large undulating green complexes surrounded by short grass. The golf course was set-up in a way that was intended to directly mirror the course conditions that players will face this week at Augusta. Anytime you can get Pendrith on a long golf course that allows him to put his driver and lag putting skill work, he is a must play, and while this will be his first look at Augusta, I believe this is the start of a strong relationship. One to three debutants finish top-20 every single year, and in two of the past four years, a debutant (Will Zalatoris and Ludvig Aberg) have finished runner-up. I do genuinely believe that Pendrith has the upside to contend at this tournament and make some real noise over the weekend. His driver is that much of a weapon, and after a slow start to the season on the greens, the Canadian is finally start to putt with confidence again. Pendrith has now gained 11 strokes putting in his last two starts, and his approach play hasn’t missed a beat either. I was simply long on Shane Lowry and Russell Henley at last year’s majors, and these two players were massive pieces in all of the DFS success I was able to find in 2024. Pendrith is one of my guys, and I feel strongly that he will announce himself at the majors this year in a big way. The $6,700 price tag this week is a steal.

Pool

• Scottie Scheffler, $12,400

• Collin Morikawa, $10,500

• Justin Thomas, $9,600

• Hideki Matsuyama, $9,500

• Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100

• Patrick Cantlay, $8,700

• Will Zalatoris, $8,300

• Sungjae Im, $7,300

• Justin Rose, $7,200

• Daniel Berger, $7,100

• Davis Thompson, $7,000

• Keegan Bradley, $7,000

• Nicolai Haggard, $6,900

• Byeong Hun An, $6,800

• J.J. Spaun, $6,800

• Taylor Pendrith, $6,700

• Harris English, $6,500

• Chris Kirk, $6,600

• Kevin Yu, $6,300

Betting Card

Outrights

• Justin Thomas (25/1) (0.3U) (win: 7.5) DK

• Hideki Matsuyama (33/1) (0.23U) (win: 7.6) BetMGM

• Patrick Cantlay (40/1) (0.19U) (win: 7.6) FD (Future)

• Shane Lowry (45/1) (0.17U) (win: 7.7) FD

• Robert MacIntyre (65/1) (0.11U) (win: 7.2) BM

Top 20 (Ties Included)

• Xander Schauffele (-120) (1U) Bet365

• Justin Thomas (-120) Bet365

• Hideki Matsuyama (-110) Bet365

• Patrick Cantlay (+105) Bet365

• Shane Lowry (+105) DK

• Russell Henley (+140) Bet365

• Robert MacIntyre (+140) Bet365

OAD: Rory McIlroy

2024-2025

Outrights: -21.45U

Matchups: +8.91U

Positionals: -4.325U

Total: -16.865U

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI