Andy Lack's 2025 MEGA Masters Preview

Andrew Lack
Apr 7, 2025
14 min read

We’ve finally made it to the first major championship of the year. The Masters Tournament, held annually in the first full week of April, always at the same golf course, Augusta National Golf Club, a private golf course in Augusta, Georgia. The field at the Masters is smaller than any of the other three majors because it is an invitational event. It will be comprised of 96 players in 2025. After 36 holes of play, there is a cut, as only the top 50 and ties will advance to the weekend. Should the fourth round fail to produce a winner, all players tied enter a sudden death playoff, which is 18 then 10 then 18 and back and forth between those two holes. Scottie Scheffler will look to defend his title and claim his third Masters victory in four years, a feat only accomplished by Jack Nicklaus in the history of the event.

Former Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-11) over Ludvig Aberg (-7)

Winner Odds: Scheffler (+450)
Scoring Average: +1.82

2023: Jon Rahm (-12) over Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka (-8)

Winner Odds: Rahm (9/1)
Scoring Average: +1.01

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10) over Rory McIlroy (-7)

Winner Odds: Scheffler (16/1)
Scoring Average: +1.86

2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10) over Will Zalatoris (-9)

Winner Odds: Matsuyama (50/1)
Scoring Average: +0.98

2020: Dustin Johnson (-20) over Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im (-15)

Winner Odds: Johnson (9/1)
Scoring Average: -0.21

2019: Tiger Woods (-13) over Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele (-12)

Winner Odds: Woods (16/1)
Scoring Average: -0.23

The Basics

Location: Augusta, Georgia
Designer: Alister MacKenzie & Bobby Jones (1933)
Par/Length: Par 72; 7,555 yards
Fairways: Rye-grass, measuring 55 yards wide on average
Rough: Rye-grass, measuring 1’388 inches
Greens: Bent-grass greens measuring 6,486 square feet, featuring Bent-grass and running 14 on the stimp
Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes

The Weather

Since I last looked at the weather, two unfortunate warning signs have popped, as I write this on Sunday morning. First, I’m now seeing a fair amount of rain for the forecast on Friday, and secondly, the wind has appeared to die down significantly over the weekend. This leads me to believe that we will see an easier and softer version of Augusta than we have been treated to each of the past four years. Keep in mind, last year was actually the hardest it played over the last four years, and each of the last four years Augusta has found its sweet spot of playing in between a stroke and 1.88 strokes over par. Friday last year in particular was brutal, and we saw a scoring average climb past three strokes over par, good for some of the most challenging scoring conditions at Augusta we have seen in the past decade.

I would not be overly worried by the fact that we are getting some rain on Friday, as last year we saw significant rainfall on Thursday as well, which even resulted in a delay. The course dried out extremely quickly, especially with a westerly wind, yet the combination of significant rainfall on Friday and very low winds over the weekend lead me to believe that this year’s Masters may feature the easiest scoring conditions we have seen since Tiger Woods triumphed at 13-under par in 2019 (I’m not even including the wonky 2020 COVID November Masters). Of course, be sure to follow along in the Discord for updates throughout the week, as we will have multiple contributors on the grounds. I am particularly fascinated to learn how the golf course dries out for the practice rounds across Tuesday and Wednesday, and the area is also expected to see some significant rainfall on Monday. As it stands now, I am projecting a -14 winner with a scoring average of +0.45, which would comfortably play nearly a stroke and a half easier than last year and at least half-stroke easier than 2021 and 2023. In terms of how this changes the required skill set that I am looking for? Not as much as you would think. If anything, players with a higher carry distance will see even more of an advantage on a softer golf course, but even so, I expect the golf course to dry out beautifully over the weekend, and the model I have laid out is accounting for scoring conditions that range somewhere between +0.4 over par and +2 over par, a high and low I feel very comfortable with.

The Trends that Actually Matter

Five of the last six years, the winner of the Masters has been 16/1 or lower, which is truly remarkable in terms of outlining the predictiveness of this tournament. Five out of the last six years, one of the three to five best players in the world with the best lead-in form has won the Masters. It can’t be that easy, can it? Well, compared to other PGA Tour events, Augusta is such an extreme test from tee to green, with such a strong correlation towards course history, that in five of the last six years, if you were to pick the player in the best current form, under 20/1, with good Masters history and recent major experience, who also isn’t the defending champion, you’d have the right guy.
11 of the last 12 winners have been under the age of 40.
12 straight winners have been top-30 OWGR. While the last couple of the years the OWGR has been de-valued, they would all be top 30 players in the DataGolf rankings as well.
11 of the last 12 winners have finished top-30 in at least one of their last two starts leading into Augusta (this would eliminate Justin Thomas, who has missed his last two cuts here).
11 of the last 12 winners have posted a top-six in a major in one of the previous two seasons (this would also eliminate Justin Thomas).
Eight of the last 11 winners had a top-12 in a stroke play event in one of the last two months.
8 of the last 11 winners have won or finished top-5 that season.
Working against Scottie Scheffler is a strong trend identifying the challenge of going back-to-back. In the last 25 years, only 2 players have finished top-five the year after winning: Tiger Woods in 2006 and Jordan Spieth in 2016. Only 2 of the last 8 defending champions finished top-30. Not only is it incredibly rare to contend coming off a Masters win, it’s rare to even play well.
Don’t peak too early! In every single one of the majors over the last 10 years, only Phil Mickelson in 2013 and Rory McIlroy in 2014 won the week before winning a major. Keep in mind, last year, Scottie Scheffler missed a 6-foot putt to win the Houston Open in his direct start before a major, but he did win the Players and API in his prior two starts.
9 of the last 11 winners have played in at least 3 Masters, but the sweet spot is between 3 and 10 appearances. Scheffler won in his 3rd and 5th Masters appearance.
Conclusion: Essentially just pick the player below 20/1 who is playing the best golf in the world, has played in at least 3 Masters, with strong recent major form and isn’t Scottie Scheffler. Of course I say this tongue and cheek, as I know it’s not that simple and Scheffler is the deserving favorite. Yet I cannot emphasize enough the unlikelihood of what Scheffler is looking to accomplish. Still, he became the first player to ever win back-to-back Players Championships, as well as the first player to win the Players Championship and the Masters in the same year. Scottie is certainly not a stranger to re-writing history, but that’s exactly what he would be doing.

Stats

Off the Tee

Driving Distance at Augusta was 301.5, 9.2 yards above Tour average and driving accuracy was 71.1%, 12.4% above Tour average, with fairways measuring 55.0 yards wide on average, 21.3 yards wider than Tour average. It featured the 2nd-easiest fairways to hit on the entire PGA Tour. Oddly enough, Augusta still ranked 32nd out of 42 courses in SG: OTT and over the last four years, this has been the easiest aspect of Augusta by a healthy margin.

It only ranked 24th in missed fairway penalty, 24th in rough penalty, and 31st in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. Yet last year, more than each of the last four years, driving accuracy also saw a positive correlation with success. Don’t get me wrong, Augusta National will always be a distance over accuracy course, but missing in the right spots is paramount. Last year, each of the top five players all ranked top-20 in strokes gained off the tee, and off the tee has played just as large of a role in the strokes gained pie for winners and top-10 finishers as approach play each of the last four years. The Masters is a little more balanced than the modern U.S. Open, which is really just a total driving test, but in the modern era of strokes gained, elite power and off-the-tee play has been proven to be just as valuable as elite approach play at the top of the leaderboard.

The reality of the situation is that because of the way the fairways grows, Augusta is up there if not the longest course on Tour, so those with an extremely high carry distance do possess an advantage. The longest players on the PGA Tour in this field are Bryson DeChambeau, Min Woo Lee, Rory McIlroy, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Taylor Pendrith.

Approach

Augusta ranks 2nd in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last four years it has ranked top-6 in this category, and it remains one of the most difficult second-shot courses on the entire PGA Tour and features one of the lowest GIR percentages on Tour despite featuring such large greens. Greens in regulation percentage remains just 57.3%, 8.6 yards lower than Tour average.

Proximity

Distance	Shot Frequency	Tour Average
Inside 100 Yards	11.3%	9.0%
100-125 Yards	7.1%	10.3%
125-150 Yards	11.7%	17.0%
150-175 Yards	19.5%	22%
175-200 Yards	18.8%	17.5%
200 Yards-Plus	31.2%	25.9%

With close to 70% of all approach shots coming from greater than 150 yards, Augusta is a mid- to long-iron approach course in its truest sense, and if I am power ranking the skills, I am looking for this week, middle to long iron play still has to come first. Although interestingly enough, strokes gained off the tee has played just as much of the strokes gained pie among top-10 finishes as approach play has, and last year, both Scheffler and Ludvig did more of their damage with their driver than they did with their iron play. Over the last four years, the average strokes gained approach rank and strokes gained off the tee rank of winner has been the exact same: 7.5. Thus, the only caution I would offer is that the long-standing narrative that Augusta National is a pure second-shot golf course isn’t exactly true. It is just as much won with elite driving as it is elite approach play.

The best players from 150-200 yards are Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Lucas Glover, JJ Spaun, Collin Morikawa, and Kevin Yu.

The best players from 200+ are Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Lucas Glover, Michael Kim, Tom Hoge, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Around the Green

Last year, Augusta ranked second in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and each of the last four years it has ranked top-4 in this category. Augusta remains one of the absolute toughest short game courses on the entire PGA Tour, and if you have an absolutely filthy short game, there is no better course on Tour for players to be able to showcase it. It ranked 2nd out of 42 courses in ARG difficulty from the fairway, 19th out of 42 courses in ARG difficulty from the rough, 16th out of 42 courses in ARG from the bunkers, and it probably remains the toughest golf courses to chip off short grass on the entire PGA Tour. One of the best ways that I would describe Augusta, is that if you are really, really good at something, it will be highlighted more than ever on this golf course.

Outside of maybe driving accuracy, Augusta is the best showcase on the PGA Tour for elite driving, elite approach play, elite chipping, and even elite lag putting. We have seen players such as Cameron Smith and Patrick Reed, the two best chippers in the world, dominate at this course solely because they are so good at this specific skill, and not a lot of over golf courses do this. We have seen players with a shaky short game overcome it to find success at the Masters in the past, but you can flat out win this tournament with a filthy short game. We watched it happen with Scheffler last year. Each of the last four years, the winner has ranked top-six in strokes gained around the green. I put together a model of short-grass intensive golf courses (Quail Hollow, Congaree, Memorial Park, and of course, Augusta National) to try and identify the players who have had the most success around the greens at both Augusta and similarly challenging ARG courses, and the best chippers in these conditions have been Aaron Rai, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, and Cameron Smith.

Putting

Last year, Augusta ranked 2nd in strokes gained putting difficulty, and each of the last four years it has ranked top-four in this category. It ranked 7th out of 42 courses in putting difficulty inside 5 feet, 2nd from 5 to 15 feet and 1st in putting difficulty from 15 feet plus. Augusta is still probably the toughest mid to lag putting course on the PGA Tour because there is so much undulation and so many internal breaks and character to these greens. Alister Mackenzie in my opinion is the greatest designer of greens to have ever lived, and if you’ve ever played an Alister Mackenzie course, whether it be Cypress, or Pasatiempo, or the Valley Club, you understand the complexities. I know with the Valley Club, top five most engaging greens I’ve ever played, most confusing greens I’ve ever played, the most times I’ve had a 20-foot putt and had my hands up in the air after thinking, ‘wow that goes that way, I didn’t even see that slope. If you are an elite putter ala Patrick Reed or Ben Crenshaw, you can really really show off here, yet because the golf course is so demanding from tee to green, putting must take a backseat in the model to other tee-to-green categories. Yet each of the last four years, the winner has ranked outside of the top 10 in strokes gained putting. Ultimately, I am looking just as much as putting history at Augusta, as I am long-term Bent-grass form and lag putting.

The best lag putters in this field in 2025 have been Zach Johnson, Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Michael Kim, and Nick Dunlap.

The best Bent-grass putters in this field over the last three years have been Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston, Justin Rose, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Billy Horschel.

The best putters at Augusta over the last four years have been Justin Rose, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Reed, Chris Kirk, Will Zalatoris, and Min Woo Lee.

Scoring Stats

The biggest key that we want to be looking for in the scoring stats department is major form, and the Rabbit Hole has a unique filter for majors. Yes, we want to be looking at how players perform on long, difficult golf courses, windy golf courses, driver-heavy golf courses, firm golf courses, etc. Augusta fits into all of those buckets, but above all else, one of the strongest trends to pay attention to is how players have performed recently in major championships. It is incredibly rare to see a player with little to no major form come in and win the Masters. The best major players over the past five years have been Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Jon Rahm.

Comp Courses/Course History

In terms of the predictive nature of course history, Augusta ranks first on the PGA Tour by a healthy margin. It’s nearly double the second-highest correlated course, which is Waialae. It should and it should not come as a surprise that we have not seen a first-time winner at this event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. With that being said, of the top 20 in 2023, Sahith finished 9th as a debutant, and Tom Kim and Sam Bennett both finished 16th as debutants. The prior year, Talor Gooch finished 14th as a debutant, Min Woo finished 14th as a debutant, and Harry Higgs finished 14th as a debutant. Yet in 2021, Will Zalatoris finished runner-up as a debutant, Bobby Mac finished 12th as a debutant, and last year, Ludvig finished runner-up as a debutant, leading the field in putting. In the last four years, we have seen two debutants finish runner-up here, and every year, at least one to three debutants do finish top-20. For a long time we have concluded that the most difficult aspect of Augusta is figuring out the greens, yet Ludvig showed up on his first appearance here and led the field in putting. In fairness, I did observe Rory provide Ludvig with quite the playing lesson on Wednesday afternoon. That still doesn’t explain Adam Schenk and Matthieu Pavon both finishing T12 on debut last year as well. In terms of winning the Masters, we should not expect a first-timer to accomplish this, but every year, we can almost guarantee that one to three debutants will finish top-20, and great players such as Zalatoris and Ludvig both finished runner-up within the last five years.

Best Players in True SG

Player	Rounds	True SG
Scottie Scheffler	20	+3.31
Will Zalatoris	12	+3.18
Jordan Spieth	40	+2.59
Jon Rahm	32	+2.53
Collin Morikawa	20	+2.36
Phil Mickelson	76	+2.21
Tiger Woods	66	+2.17
Justin Rose	66	+2.05
Cameron Smith	32	+1.99
Rory McIlroy	58	+1.96
Xander Schauffele	26	+1.94

In terms of the comp courses, over the years I have settled on a group of five that best represent the challenge at Augusta in variably unique ways and actually provide some predictive value. if you’re looking for players who don’t have a ton of experience at Augusta, but you want to find other courses that they’ve played at before that can maybe simulate success at the Masters, I would probably look at Kapalua, a course where players can bomb away with driver, and players will still be tasked with a tremendous amount of uneven lies and awkward approach shots into big, undulating greens. They aren’t Mackenzie greens, but Coore and Crenshaw are up there with Doak as probably the best modern designers of greens. Memorial Park has quite simply been set up the last two years in a way to simulate the exact course conditions of Augusta National, and they’ve truly done an excellent job with this. Quail Hollow is hard, long, driver-heavy, and over-seeded, with wide fairways and fast, large undulating green complexes. Finally, Riviera is another course that favors length off the tee, strong mid to long iron play and a deft touch around the greens.

The top 6 players in strokes gained total at Riviera have been Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele. Those 6 players have combined for 40 Top-25s, 26 Top-10s, 3 runner-ups, and 4 wins at Augusta National.

The best players at the comp courses over the last few years have been Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Collin Morikawa.

Model

Off the Tee (19%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (6.5%)
L50 Carry Distance (8.5%)
L2 Years Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Long, Driver Heavy (4%)

Approach (26%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

L36 Strokes Gained Approach (10%)
L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (8%)
L75 Proximity 200 yards (8%)

Around the Green (14%) (PGA Tour average: 8%)

2025 Strokes Gained Around the Green (6%)
L50 Scrambling Off Short Grass (4%)
L3 Years Strokes Gained Around the Green: Comp Courses (Augusta/Congaree/Quail Hollow/Memorial Park) (4%)

Putting (12%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting Bent-grass (5%)
L4 Years Strokes Gained Putting Augusta (3%)
2025 Lag Putting 25 Feet Plus (4%)

Scoring Stats (12%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

L2 Years Strokes Gained Total: Difficult Conditions (4%)
L2 Years Strokes Gained Total: Windy Conditions (3%)
L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: Major Championships (5%)

Comp Courses/Course History (16%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

L24 Augusta National (13%)
L24 Kapalua/Riviera/Quail Hollow/Memorial Park (3%)

Model Top 20

(I am working with an incomplete data set as it pertains to LIV, and my handicap of the LIV players will require additional context. This exemplifies how my numbers feel about the best PGA Tour players)

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Tommy Fleetwood
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Cantlay
Ludvig Aberg
Will Zalatoris
Viktor Hovland
Justin Thomas
Min Woo Lee
Sungjae Im
Russell Henley
Tony Finau
Jordan Spieth
Keegan Bradley
Sepp Straka
Corey Conners

Player Spotlight: Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry at majors is my comfort food. He was a core play for me both at Valhalla and Royal Troon, which both resulted in top-10 finishes. I would argue that he is playing much better golf right now than he was heading into either of those two majors. Lowry finished eighth at the Valspar Championship in his last start, gaining over four strokes off the tee and four strokes on approach. He’s coming in with some of the best approach form of his career, gaining over three strokes on approach in four straight starts. Lowry is also chipping his butt off now as well, gaining strokes around the greens in five straight starts. Major pedigree? Check. Augusta form? Check. Lowry has finished top-25 in four out of his last five appearances at the Masters, and he led the field in approach play last year. Recent approach form and multiple top-10 finishes in the last two months? Check. Underwhelming finish last year? Check. It’s all coming up Lowry for me.