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2025 WM Phoenix Open Final Thoughts

Weather



Please do me a favor. Do not let anyone gaslight you into thinking there is anything happening "on the grounds" at TPC Scottsdale that you need to know about. This is dome golf with nearly the same conditions we see every single year at TPC Scottsdale. If anything, the golf course will play slightly easier than years past with perfectly warm weather and receptive (enough) greens. Nothing about the weather will play a factor in how I am handicapping this event. If you can catch a winning score prop in the -19 zone, bet that it will be easier than that.


Winning Score Prediction: -22

 

Core


Scottie Scheffler, $12,000: We are currently in the middle of the Scottie Scheffler era, a time unbeknownst to us as DFS players given that this silly game wasn’t around for Tiger’s peak. Every week on the PGA Tour this year, Scottie Scheffler will be the highest-priced player on the slate, and his ownership will likely fall somewhere between 35% and 65%. He is the best player in every field by a healthy margin, and he is often likely to finish no worse than 10th in any given week with a win percentage of somewhere between 15 and 45%. If we do some quick math, this does not necessarily mean that the optimal strategy is to just play Scheffler every week. Context matters, and each week I will do my best to comprehensively lay out the pro and con case for the two-time Masters champion. The Scottie decision every week should come down to two factors: The field and the golf course. The two questions you should ask yourself are:


1.)  Do I have a demonstrably higher chance of building a 6/6 without Scheffler?

2.)  Does this golf course accentuate Scheffler’s advantage over the field, or neutralize it?


I’ve already spent hours of content answering the second question, and I think we can all understand that a golf course that highlights long and accurate driving, middle-iron approach play, and features some of the easiest greens on the PGA Tour, is going to only further Scheffler’s built-in advantage. Yet the answer to the second question is why I am truly so bullish on Scheffler this week. I just happen to believe that this is an incredibly week $10K, $9K, and $8K range, and the sevens are loaded with players who can make the cut for me. The reason to fade Scheffler would be centered around a balanced lineup which yields an incredibly high made cut probability, and I simply do not believe that exists this week. I have significant questions around most players in the $8K and $9K range this week, even the few that I am playing, and I do not remotely feel it to be a foregone conclusion that your 6/6 probability significantly increases by building without Scheffler. Hideki and JT are both wildcards with a far lower floor than DFS players are willing to admit, and I believe a player such as Billy Horschel in the mid-sevens presents just as much made-cut equity of many of the players in the low eights and nines. I wouldn’t think too deeply about this one. Plug in Scottie and move on. There will be opportunities to take the contrarian stance with Scottie this year, but this is not one of those weeks.


Si Woo Kim, $8,000: Si Woo Kim really ended up hurting my feelings at Torrey Pines. It all ended up working out in the end, as Harris English and Sam Stevens still carried my 4/6 Single Entry to a top-20 finish in the $100 contest, but I must admit my surprise on SWK not getting through the weekend, as I was incredibly high on his chances that week. There continues to be a tremendous amount of sharp respect and steam for Si Woo Kim, both at Torrey Points, even somewhat at Pebble Beach, and certainly this week at TPC Scottsdale. Kim has already been bet up to -150 in a matchup on Bookmaker against Nick Taylor after opening at -125, and I can’t say I disagree with the sentiment. Kim is coming off a 12th-place finish where he rose up the leaderboard on Sunday on the surprising back of a hot putter. I rarely worry about Kim’s ball-striking, and he remains one of the better TPC course players in this field due to his aggressive play. It really all comes down to putting, and not only has Kim won on this surface before at the American Express, but this aspect of his game finally appears to be trending in the right direction. Si Woo Kim made a ton of cuts last year, but never really cracked the first page of the leaderboard. I expect that to change this week and for Kim to find himself clearly in the mix come Super Bowl Sunday.


Billy Horschel, $7,600: You could easily plug Slammin’ Sammy Stevens in this spot, but I think Horschel provides a little more safety, while Stevens provides more upside. This is not to say that Horschel can’t win the event. In fact, I believe he is the most likely winner of anyone in the $7K range and is woefully underpriced this week. Horschel always plays TPC Scottsdale well, with five top-25 finishes in 12 appearances. He has a ton of solid experience, and the more subdued fans should be even better for the Baton Boy in 2025! If you’re noticing a theme for my non-Scheffler plays, all three other core members showed serious signs on Sunday at Pebble Beach and are carrying some nice momentum into this week. Horschel shot a final-round 66 at Pebble, gaining strokes in all four categories, and the well-rounded nature of his skill-set should play dividends this week. I would worry a touch about the ownership here, but I would simply attempt to avoid a lot of Stevens and Horschel plays together with Scheffler. I’ll possibly look in the other direction in Single Entry if I see the ownership continue to creep up, but for all intents and purposes, Billy will be one of my highest-exposure players on the slate.


Brian Harman, $7,200: After two very successful 3x multiplier weeks in Daily Fantasy after a heavily mediocre start to the season, I’m ready to enact my revenge with Brian Harman. The American Express was my personal rock bottom, and the first time in my three years of publishing Core Fours that I have had all four players miss the cut. I sought revenge the following week with Sungjae Im flop-lag at Torrey Pines and was rewarded with a top-five finish. Brian Harman was another member of my fateful AmEx core that missed the cut in horrifying fashion, and while the click is certainly uncomfortable, there is a reason I felt so strongly about his chances on a desert TPC course just two weeks ago. Harman possesses a ton of solid experience at this track, like Horschel, and he has made 10 of 11 cuts at TPC Scottsdale. While he rarely finishes in the top 25, I don’t need much from Harman to pay off his 7.2K price-tag at 3%. In a loaded $7K range brimming with players that are beginning to creep towards concerning ownership levels (Chuck Hoffman, Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge, Andrew Novak, etc.), Brian Harman remains the pedigree player of the group and is the only man who has taken on the chirps (no pun intended) of the entire country of England while winning an Open Championship by six strokes. The name of the game at TPC Scottsdale is keeping the ball in play off the tee and attacking with middle irons, and Harman quietly gained two strokes on approach alone on Sunday at Pebble Beach. The 38-year-old still has plenty left in the tank, as Hoylake was far from the lefty’s final act. Now is the perfect opportunity to buy low (ha!) on a player with far better approach form than his results would suggest. And don’t get me started on the Dog!

 

Player Pool


  • Scottie Scheffler, $12,000

  • Tom Kim, $9,600

  • Rasmus Hojgaard, $9,200

  • Kurt Kitayama, $8,900

  • Maverick McNealy, $8,800

  • Luke Clanton, $8,400

  • Si Woo Kim, $8,000

  • Davis Thompson, $7,800

  • Billy Horschel, $7,600

  • Daniel Berger, $7,400

  • Brian Harman, $7,300

  • Ben Griffin, $7,300

  • Doug Ghim, $7,200

  • Gary Woodland, $7,100

  • Lee Hodges, $7,100

  • Michael Thorbjornsen, $7,000

  • Alex Smalley, $6,900

  • Matti Schmid, $6,700

  • K.H. Lee, $6,600

  • Andrew Putnam, $6,600

 

Betting Card

 

Outrights

  • Tom Kim (45/1) (0.17U) (win: 7.7) DK

  • Si Woo Kim (60/1) (0.13U) (win: 7.8) FD

  • Maverick McNealy (65/1) (0.12U) (win: 7.8) FD

  • Kurt Kitayama (65/1) (0.12U) (win: 7.8) DK

  • Billy Horschel (70/1) (0.11U) (win: 7.7) FD

  • Wyndham Clark (75/1) (0.1U) (win: 7.5) FD

  • Sam Stevens (100/1) (0.075U) (win: 7.5) Bet365

  • Brian Harman (120/1) (0.065U) (win: 7.8) Bet365

  • Daniel Berger (125/1) (0.06U) (win: 7.5) BM

  • K.H. Lee (300/1) (0.025U) (win: 7.5) FD

  • Carson Young (300/1) (0.025U) (win: 7.5) FD

 

Matchups (1U each)

  • Kurt Kitayama (-135) over Max Greyserman

  • Tom Hoge (+120) over Akshay Bhatia

  • Sam Stevens (-130) over Taylor Moore

 

Top 20 (3.5U total)

  • Maverick McNealy (+185) (1U)

  • Tom Hoge (+250) (0.5U)

  • Brian Harman (+240) (0.5U)

  • Charley Hoffman (+280) (0.5U)

  • Daniel Berger (+300) (0.5U)

  • K.H. Lee (+550) (0.5U)

 

OAD: Sam Burns

 

2024-2025

Outrights: -11.45U

Positionals: -11.1U

Matchups: +7.85

Total: -14.7U

Risk: 111.5U, Win: -14.7U

 

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI

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