2025 Valspar Championship Final Thoughts

Okay, let’s talk about it! I have personally never seen so much discourse on the weather this week in my four years of covering golf professionally, and yes, to state the incredibly obvious, it’s an over-reaction. The market has officially lost the plot with this one, and I would certainly venture to argue that there is some opportunity on the other side. Yes, the PM/AM players will see an advantage, as evidenced by the GOATED Lake Tarpon wind-finder, but that is mainly on Friday. Thursday morning at this point could be just as challenging as Thursday afternoon, so the advantage that you are playing is mainly based on the ideology that Friday afternoon will be demonstrably easier than Friday morning. It will be, but likely to the tune of the stroke, if I had to make a guess.

There will in fact be players from the wrong side of the draw who make the cut, and if you have a numbers edge on them, you’d be silly to cut them. I’m playing 21 players this week at the Vaslpar. Five of them are PM/AM, and three of the five are above 8.9K. Weather matters less with better players, and I still believes that Zalatoris and Conners are viable to overcome such adversity. Yet the AM/PM side is still a valued way to break ties at the bottom of your pool. Just know, you’ll pay the price in ownership. I will be gladly avoiding the cheap double-digit owned players from the right wave and am happy to exercise my edge in player data over weather projecting seven days a week and twice on Sunday. We’ll discuss more in the Wednesday chat.

Core

Tommy Fleetwood, $10,300: I view Tommy Fleetwood this week very similarly to way that I viewed Collin Morikawa last week. Morikawa last week resulted in a T12. Neither the faders nor the hammerers could really victory lap, and that was probably the 50th-percentile outcome, which is why you should have played him. Fleetwood this week (and Morikawa last week) presents the highest floor in this field. The Englishman has now gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in 10 straight starts. He’s a better overall approach player than JT and a much more accurate driver as well. The ownership is largely generated by the sharp community, which is reflected in the betting markets compared to Straka’s odds, and I fully believe that if you are going to attach yourself to a Big Fat Loser this week, it’s Tommy over Sepp for me in a vacuum. Not only is he in the right side of the wave, but similar to Zalatoris, this is an incredible golf course for his skill-profile. He does not need to go out and shoot a million under-par, and his expertise managing a difficult golf course and building a round when par is not a bad score will play dividends. I don’t know whether or not he’s going to win the golf tournament and I certainly don’t have a difficult time missing it at 11/1, but Tommy Fleetwood is the best player in the field this week, and let it be known for those who need to hear it.

Will Zalatoris, $9,300: I understand that Will Zalatoris is on the wrong side of the draw, but I’m happy to take my chances on the talent, as weather tends to play more of a factor at the bottom of the board than it does the top. I was on Zalatoris last week, and it feels like a bygone era that he was leading the Players Championship early on Saturday afternoon. Yes, Zalatoris imploded with a quadruple bogey, yet it was really just one bad decision that completely spiraled via the unique missed fairway penalty at TPC Sawgrass. Innisbrook is a death-by-1,000-paper-cuts course. It’s a keep it between the mustard and mayo course. It does not remotely feature the amount of variance as Sawgrass, and pars will work here. Innisbrook does not get thought off as one of the most difficult courses on Tour, but it certainly is in scoring average, and there is a reason why Zalatoris has always over-performed at major championships. Zalatoris is on the record that this type of penal conditioning is far better for skill profile, and given his precision iron play, the data would back this up as well. I think this is sneakily one of the best golf course fits on Tour for Zalatoris, and not a demonstrably different test than where he won at TPC Southwind. Shoutout #TampaFive.

Byeong Hun An, $8,200: This is the type of play I used to make all the time when I wasn’t catering to a 500+ person Discord where everyone has an opinion. It’s back to my roots. We are buying early on a player that was projected by many (myself included) to have a breakout year in 2025. An stumbled out of the gates this year, and we pivoted immediately, as something has felt off. Yet the Benny of old began to peek his head out with an eighth-place finish at Bay Hill, another Florida, thick rough, long-iron-intensive golf course. He followed this up with a ho-hum 52nd at the Players Championship, which I wouldn’t read too deeply into, as he has been on the record about not liking that golf course. He still made the cut and treaded water over the weekend. No, Valspar is not a traditional fit for his skill-profile in the sense that it does not accentuate distance off the tee, but nothing at the Valspar makes sense anyway, and An’s skill profile is not demonstrably different than Cameron Young or Taylor Moore. Per the Stick Man, he was seen on the range working on his iron play with coach Sean Foley, meaning he is treating the Valspar like a real opportunity to raise his standing in the FedEx Cup and majors. Ultimately, the market has reacted to An’s tee time and long-term upside, and DFS players simply have not.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,600: There are a lot of players from the good side of the draw that I easily could have slotted into this spot, but let’s roll the dice with Bez. I’ve already got elite approach players and drivers in the core, so let’s spread the wealth here in terms of making sure are bases are covered on scrambling and spike putting. Bezuidenhout is coming off a ninth-place finish last year at the Valspar, and he has a strong track record of success on other positional, accuracy over distance golf courses such as Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC Southwind. Bezuidehout ranks top-10 in this field in strokes gained total in Florida and strokes gained total in difficult scoring conditions, and if he can navigate Bay Hill and Muirfield Village, he can certainly make his way around Innisbrook. Hell, he might even gain eight strokes putting and threaten to win the entire event. Yet these golf course conditions scream the South African’s name to me, and he still seems to be slipping through the cracks from an ownership standpoint (pre-ISN bump.)

Pool

-       Xander Schauffele, $10,500 (AM/PM)

-       Tommy Fleetwood, $10,300 (AM/PM)

-       Corey Conners, $9,600 (PM/AM)

-       Will Zalatoris, $9,300 (PM/AM)

-       Lucas Glover, $8,800 (PM/AM)

-       Adam Scott, $8,300 (AM/PM)

-       Byeong Hun An, $8,200 (AM/PM)

-       Stephan Jaeger, $7,900 (AM/PM)

-       Keith Mitchell, $7,800 (AM/PM)

-       Kurt Kitayama, $7,600 (AM/PM)

-       Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,600 (AM/PM)

-       Andrew Novak, $7,400 (PM/AM) (4.5%)

-       Doug Ghim, $7,300 (PM/AM) (4%)

-       Jhonattan Vegas, $7,200 (PM/AM) (3.5%)

-       Matt Kuchar, $7,100 (AM/PM) (6.5%)

-       Joseph Bramlett, $7,100 (AM/PM) (7%)

-       Ryan Fox, $7,000 (AM/PM) (4%)

-       Danny Walker, $6,900 (AM/PM) (7.5%)

-       Andrew Putnam, $6,900 (AM/PM) (6.5%)

-       Mac Meissner, $6,700 (AM/PM) (4%)

-       C.T. Pan, $6,700 (AM/PM) (2%)

Outrights

• Corey Conners (25/1) (0.3U) (win: 7.5) FanDuel

• Tom Kim (35/1) (0.22U) (win: 7.7) Bookmaker

• Jacob Bridgeman (65/1) (win: 7.8) Bookmaker

• Bud Cauley (75/1) (0.1U) (win: 7.5) FanDuel

• Kurt Kitayama (85/1) (0.09U) (win: 7.7)

• Max McGreevy (100/1) (0.075U) (win: 7.5) FanDuel

• Rico Hoey (140/1) (0.055U) (win: 7.7) Bet365

• C.T. Pan (200/1) (0.04U) (win: 8) Bet365

Matchups (1U each): BetOnline

• Tommy Fleetwood (-160) over Justin Thomas

• Bud Cauley (-120) over Sam Stevens

• Nicolai Hojgaard (-135) over Beau Hossler

• Max McGreevy (-115) over Billy Horschel

• Rico Hoey (-165) over Chan Kim

Top 20

Tom Kim (+140) (1U) Bet365

Michael Kim (+150) (1U) Bet365

Jacob Bridgeman (+225) (0.5U) Bet365

OAD: Sepp Straka

2024-2025

Outrights: -18.45U

Positionals: -3.8U

Matchups: +9.57U

Total: -12.68U

ROI: 160U Risked, -12.68U won

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.45U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI