2025 Sony Open Final Thoughts

The No. 1 one issue I have with these Hawaii tournaments is that Windfinder doesn’t provide an hour-to-hour forecast. With that being said, I back checked with my other weather sites and I do think there is a decent likelihood that one side of the wave could see an advantage over the other. The issue that I’m seeing is that there is nothing entirely conclusive leading me towards one versus the other. Thursday morning appears a little rainy and with calm winds. Thursday afternoon appears to be dry with higher winds. Friday morning is similar, with but with higher winds both in the afternoon and the morning. Gun to my head, I would prefer players from the PM/AM side and am shooting for a 60/40 split. With that being said, I don’t see a whole lot of downside risk in deploying a few lineups that stack in both directions. I don’t have a strong stance this week in one wave being demonstrably advantaged over the other, but I do feel strong in a winning score in the 14 to 17-under range.

Winning score prediction: -16

Core

Corey Conners, $10,200: I feel nearly the same about Corey Conners and Russell Henley this week. Both are the two strongest course fits in the field. Both have tremendous course history. Both win far less than they should and are unappealing betting numbers and certainly more highly owned than I would have hoped for. The most likely outcome feels that one is going to contend and potentially win, and the other is going to cruise to a non-competitive top-25. Your guess is as good as mine in terms of picking correctly, so I’m just going to play both and take my chances with lower-owned players in the sevens and eights. I already bet Russell Henley, so let’s use this opportunity to highlight the pro-Corey Conners case. I talked about this on my podcast with Ryan Noonan, but if you were paying attention, Conners’ improvement on the greens should not come as a surprise. The Canadian’s long-term putting numbers from five to 15 feet (the stickiest putting stat) were steadily rising since the beginning of last summer. This culminated in a +7 strokes gained putting performance at the Sentry which resulted in a fifth-place finish. Conners was also quoted on the broadcast as stating that this was an area of his game that he has devoted a ton of time to, and he is fully aware that he should be getting far more out of his ball-striking than he currently is. I’ll go on the record and say I’m fairly bullish that Conners wins in 2025 and morphs into a slightly positive putter, which is generally all he needs to significantly improve his overall baseline. I’m hoping that starts this week with another strong performance at a golf course that he has already recorded four top-12 finishes in six appearances.

Maverick McNealy, $9,200: Similar to Corey Conners, I actually think we still may have the opportunity to be early on a player that is ready to make a significant leap in 2025. Maverick McNealy finished his 2024 campaign with that elusive win at the RSM Classic. The Billionaire’s son quickly backed this up with a 12th at the Sentry where he gained over 3.5 strokes in both ball-striking categories. I’m not necessarily saying that this will be a floodgates situation with McNealy, but again, similar to Conners, instead of getting better what he is already good at, the Stanford grad is addressing his weaknesses. Iron play remains the weakest aspect of McNealy’s game, but he nearly led the field in approach at both the RSM Classic and Sentry Tournament of Champions. Already one of the best putters on Tour with an elite short game, iron play remains the missing piece in order for McNealy to truly take the next step. Prior to the RSM, McNealy was one of the best players on Tour without a victory, and it would not be the first time that a player went on a significant run once he finally got the monkey off his back. Very similar to Sea Island, Waialae is a short, middle-iron-intensive, coastal Bermuda par-70 golf course that should certainly fit McNealy’s eye, and he already boasts a top-10 finish here in 2023.

Sepp Straka, $8,000: Sepp Straka was a key piece for us last week at the Sentry, and I’m confident that he can improve upon that this week in Honolulu. If you’re noticing a theme, Straka is also a player that shook the rust off and showed incredibly encouraging signs in Maui, gaining 3.6 strokes on approach en route to a 15th-place finish. I’ve already harped on middle iron play as the number one key separator at Waialae, and windier and more challenging conditions will only fortify its importance. Outside of being a well-above-average overall approach player in great form, Straka is also one of the better Bermuda putters on Tour with a strong track record of success on shorter, windier tracks, with multiple top-five finishes at Harbour Town and Colonial, and even a runner-up mixed in at the Open Championship as well.

Seamus Power, $7,400: Followers of my Fall swing content know that Seamus Power is always a player that my numbers seem to love, and while he never brought us any success in the outright market, there is still a lot to be encouraged by in terms of Power’s performance in the Fall. With four top-25 finishes in five Fall swing events, Power showed his typical expertise on shorter golf courses that accentuate middle-iron play and putting from five to 15 feet. I will also always hold a special place in my heart for Power, as his third-place finish at this event in 2022 was a crucial component of my winning lineup in the Pat Mayo Experience Open. His success at Waialae makes all the sense in the world, as he ranks top-25 in this field in proximity from 125 to 200 yards, putting from five to 15 feet, strokes gained total on short courses, and strokes gained total on island courses. If he can come anything close to replicating his 2022 performance at this price tag, I will be a very happy man.

Pool

Corey Conners, $10,200

Russell Henley, $9,900

Byeong Hun An, $9,400

Maverick McNealy, $9,200

J.T. Poston, $8,900

Brian Harman, $8,300

Sepp Straka, $8,000

Billy Horschel, $7,900

Tom Hoge, $7,700

Eric Cole, $7,500

Daniel Berger, $7,500

Seamus Power, $7,400

Andrew Putnam, $7,400

Michael Thorbjornsen, $7,400

Keith Mitchell, $7,300

Emiliano Grillo, $7,200

Adam Svensson, $7,200

Ryo Hisatsune, $7,100

Mac Meissner, $7,100

Patton Kizzire, $6,900

Chan Kim, $6,900

Betting Card

Outrights

Russell Henley (24/1) (0.305U) (win: 7.3)

Byeong Hun An (35/1) (0.215U) (win: 7.5)

Luke Clanton (40/1) (0.19U) (win: 7.6)

Kurt Kitayama (45/1) (0.17U) (win: 7.7)

Daniel Berger (65/1) (0.12U) (win: 7.8)

Matchups (1U each)

Byeong Hun An (-105) over Robert MacIntyre

Ben Griffin (+105) over Davis Thompson

Michael Thorbjornsen (-110) over Nick Dunlap

Top 20 (4.5U Total

Russell Henley (+125) (1U)

Corey Conners (+100) (1U)

Austin Eckroat (+170) (1U)

Luke Clanton (+200) (0.5U)

Kurt Kitayama (+200) (0.5U)

Daniel Berger (+250) (0.5U)

OAD

Hideki Matsuyama

For those with no access to matchups, just bet Byeong Hun An, Ben Griffin and Thor Top-20.

2024-2025

Outrights: -7.45

Positionals: -6.2

Matchups: +8.81

Total: -4.84

Risk: 86.5, Win: -4.84

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI