2025 Sentry Tournament of Champions Final Thoughts

Weather

I did not need to travel to Hawaii to let you guys know course conditions are going to be a little bit softer this year with the rainfall, but the sunlight should mitigate that as the week progresses. I would not expect this golf course to play demonstrably differently than in years past. Maybe give a nudge to a player who is playing earlier in the day on Thursday? That still feels like a reach. I won’t be factoring in the weather to any of my decision-making this week.

Final Score Prediction: -31

Core

Xander Schauffele, $11,000: I’ve already waxed poetically enough about Xander Schauffele this week, and Kapalua remains an ideal spot for the two-time major winner. One of the more under-reported storylines last year that was lost in the Scottie shuffle was the fact that Xander turned into a top-five putter in the world. That is the reason why he started winning majors. The ball-striking remained elite, but Xander took a massive step forward with the putter. If the California native can get anywhere close to maintaining his 2024 putting baseline, there is no reason to believe that he won’t top-10 nearly every event he plays in, and hopefully mix in the occasional win as well. I liked this play a lot more when Scheffler was in the field, as this golf course provided by the perfect opportunity to fade Scheffler in exchange for Xander. Yet still, there is enough of a Morikawa/Aberg/Thomas bandwagon to keep Xander’s ownership in check, and my sell point this week would have been around 38%-40%. Low 30s is more than palatable, and I am looking at around 75% exposure this week to the X man.

Patrick Cantlay, $9,900: I have dubbed Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay the ‘Disgusting Brothers’ (a Succession reference, for those calling balls and strikes at home.) I cored them last year at the Sentry (as well as Poston), and I see no reason to deviate from that plan in 2025 either. You play the Disgusting Brothers at West Coast putting contests, you just do! My adoration for Cantlay at Kapalua follows a similar thought process to Xander. I truly believe that Cantlay and Xander are the best putters of those who are top-10 players in the world, and Kapalua is the dictionary definition of a putting contest. Yes, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, and Justin Thomas are all overall better ball-strikers than Cantlay, but the Coore/Crenshaw design is one of (if not the most) the easiest ball-striking golf courses on the PGA Tour, and the most surefire path to separation will always be on the greens. I am extremely bullish on Patrick Cantlay in general in 2025, and if you checked out the early Majors preview, you are already aware that I believe his is winning The Masters. I think this is a big event for him in terms of showing us that he’s ready to compete in 2025, as his advantage here (especially with no Rory and Scottie) is larger than the edge that he will see at many of the Signature Events down the road. Let’s kick the season off on a Disgusting note.

J.T. Poston, $7,600: J.T. Poston is not a player I have spoken about at length this week in any of my content (this is a good thing, he hasn’t been nuked by the moochers), but he has grown on me as the week has progressed. A worthy alternative to the Pendrith chalk, Poston is every bit the putter, and he also has the benefit of seeing the golf course before. The three-time PGA Tour winner is coming off a fifth-place finish at this event last year, and he casually won the Shriners in his first start this Fall swing, gaining nearly three strokes in all four major categories. Hopefully Poston hasn’t cooled down too much from the heater he was riding this Fall, as he backed up his victory at the Shriners with a fifth-place finish at the RSM Classic. Now he travels to another birdie-fest that will mitigate his lack of driving prowess and allow him to rely on his elite wedge play and putting. Poston is what I would call a birdie-fest specialist, and over the last three years, he ranks first in this entire field in strokes gained total in easy scoring conditions. It should not come as a surprise that all three of his PGA Tour victories have come at -20 under or more, and I would expect the foot to stay on the gas this week in Maui.

Cameron Davis, $6,500: Finally seeing a company come to life that has been my dream for years wasn’t enough for me, I needed to play Cam Davis to really feel alive in 2025. Yes, there is risk involved, as in, the floor is probably dead last, which is nearly what he finished last year. Yet the upside is there as well, and Davis has now won twice on the PGA Tour at birdie-fests. I love the Australian golf courses that allow him to swing for the fences with little penalty for a missed fairway, and Kapalua falls firmly in that bucket. Outside of his pop off the tee, Davis is sneakily one of the better wedge players in this field, which explains his prowess in easy scoring conditions. We have seen players such as Chris Kirk rise to the top at this event on the basis of elite wedge play and putting, and I would argue that Davis possesses among the most win equity in the entire $6K range. Not to mention the fact that in a 60-man field, with other cheap options such as Eric Cole and Harry Hall garnering a ton of love, this ownership is a gift. Just be warned of the extreme tilt potential here. 

Player Pool

Xander Schauffele, $11,000

Collin Morikawa, $10,100

Patrick Cantlay, $9,900

Wyndham Clark, $8,800

Sahith Theegala, $8,600

Robert MacIntyre, $8,200

Adam Scott, $8,100

Jason Day, $7,600

J.T. Poston, $7,600

Maverick McNealy, $7,500

Brian Harman, $7,400

Nick Dunlap, $7,200

Max Homa, $7,100

Sepp Straka, $6,800

Aaron Rai, $6,700

Thomas Detry, $6,700

Tom Hoge, $6,600

Cameron Davis, $6,500

Patton Kizzire, $6,200

Betting Card

Outrights (1U Total)

Patrick Cantlay (20/1) (0.375U) (win: 7.5)

Adam Scott (35/1) (0.225U) (win: 7.9)

Byeong Hun An (40/1) (0.19U) (win: 7.6)

Max Greyserman (55/1) (0.135U) (win: 7.4)

Eric Cole (90/1) (0.085U) (win: 7.7)

Matchups (1U each)

Max Greyserman (-115) over Adam Scott

Eric Cole (-110) over Denny McCarthy

Max Homa (-110) over Will Zalatoris

Top 10 (3.5U Total)

Justin Thomas (-105) (1U)

Patrick Cantlay (+160) (1U)

Adam Scott (+300) (0.5U)

Byeong Hun An (+300) (0.5U)

Taylor Pendrith (+400) (0.5U)

One and Done

Sungjae Im

Per the request of a Subscriber, if you do not have access to the matchups on my books, here is what I would bet at DraftKings/FanDuel:

Greyserman T10

Cole T10

Homa T10

Thomas T10

Cantlay T10

Scott T10

An T10

Pendrith T10

(I’m not seeing matchups posted at FanDuel or DK at time of writing.)