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2025 Houston Open Final Thoughts

Weather


Okay, here’s my opinion. First of all, there will be flog lag on the weather this week. I cannot believe this is a sentence I am actually typing out, but I’ve already seen it quite a bit in the Discord, which remains the sharpest measurement of how high-volume DFS players are assessing the slate. After last week, people are just simply tired of the weather discourse, and I can’t say I really blame them. Some people got burned on the weather, others didn’t, but I’m fairly sure that just about everyone is tired of talking about it. I’m tired of talking about it too, but it’s my job to put DFS players in the best position to succeed this week and lay out all of the potential outcomes, and I would say with strong levels of confidence that one side of the wave will experience an advantage over the other. We can litigate which side this will be on the Wednesday show, but my hunch is AM/PM. The reason being for this is simple. For the purposes of this argument, let’s call Friday a shitshow. Your guess is as good as mine on how that day plays out. If you have the balls to take a stand and say you know what happens on that day, maybe you get rewarded with a significant edge. I can’t sit here and tell you from looking at this weather forecast that I can tout with confidence when the best time to be on the course is on Friday. There is a decent likelihood of a delay at some point, and even if we do not experience one, it’s difficult to look at the super forecast and definitively say that it’s better to be playing in the morning or afternoon, or vise versa. Thursday, however, paints a much clearer picture to me. I can say with my chest that Thursday morning is a better time to be on the golf course than Thursday afternoon. The gusts are just straight up lower in the morning by a margin of 5-10 mph, and while I would not suggest that this will matriculate into more than a stroke advantage, I’m absolutely expecting at least a 0.5-stroke edge on Thursday morning as opposed to Thursday afternoon. I have been shouting this from the rooftops for years, and last week brought even more credence to this argument, but the impact of weather always impacts the bottom of the slate more than it does at the top. Good, high-priced players are more likely to over-come a wave advantage based on their average skill than lower-priced players who are separated minimally from their peers in average strokes gained. Thus, the way that I will be attacking this particular slate is by not caring about the weather above 7.5K, and fully stacking AM/PM (outside of my two favorite course fits) below 7.5K. This gives me outs on both sides. I strongly feel that I have enough talent at the top to overcome any wave bias, and I happen to be correct about AM/PM seeing an advantage, than I am likely cooking with a ton of 6/6s based on a robust pool at the bottom. Even if there is no edge, or a PM/AM advantage, this will help my players at the top of my pool, and I have still a couple outs left at the bottom via Perez and Schmid in my single entry. In more elementary terms, I am essentially stacking my main single entry with PM/AM, and if AM/PM comes to fruition, I feel I’ll be in a tremendous spot in the larger contests. As always, tune into the Wednesday show with questions. We’ll talk further about my feelings there.


Winning Score Prediction: -14

Scoring Average Predictions: -0.15

 

Core


Scottie Scheffler, $12,700 (PM/AM): You were warned, folks. We have a clear example now of pendulum swinging too far in the direction of Rory, and we will absolutely be there to capitalize. Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world, and if a four-tournament sample size is affecting your opinion of this, you’re telling on yourself. Has Rory McIlroy made moves to tighten that gap? Absolutely. Is this a great golf course for Rory McIlroy on paper? Absolutely. Does ownership reflect this? Also, yes, and if I fail to sell my co-hosts and the great listeners on a generational Scottie opportunity, than I would expect the margin between the these top two players to increase as the day goes on. At the end of the day, Scheffler is still a far superior middle to long iron player and chipper of the ball than Rory McIlroy, and his long-term numbers from 150 yards-plus and around the green aren’t particularly close. Is this a better golf course for Rory off the tee? Yes. Can Scottie make up for this advantage with superior middle to long iron play? Absolutely. Does McIlroy have more putting upside? Maybe. Is Scheffler still a hell of a lag putter and one of the five to ten best chippers of the golf ball off short grass over the last 10 years? The answer is a resounding yes, as we are still talking about a player that has fucked around and WON the Masters with his short game expertise and ability to get up and down more than anyone in the field on long par fours and par fives. And this remains the key reason why Scottie shan’t be overlooked this week. The Augusta-fication of Memorial Park cannot be overstated. It was the theme of my Monday morning article, and it was the guiding light on this being my most profitable event of the season last year. Scheffler’s ability to exercise creativity around the greens and save par on the five behemoth par fours and long par threes will continue to pay dividends for the two-time Masters champion. This ownership is a gift, it’s time to remind the golf world who’s on top.


Taylor Pendrith, $8,500 (PM/AM): Back in the day, before the BookMaker nuke, before War and Peace Vol. 2 on the weather, before taking in thousands of messages a day in the Discord, I won 64 units last year in golf betting and recorded a 17% DFS ROI based on my breaking down courses via my institutional knowledge of architecture and advanced analytics. Taylor Pendrith is just a good old-fashioned course fit. I don’t care whether or not a bomb fit for Yemen hit him in the forehead on Bookmaker, or what time he is teeing off, Taylor Pendrith should play well at Memorial Park because his skill-set is advantageous to what that golf course is asking. The Canadian’s power off the tee is an absolute weapon, and he has plenty of upside on approach as well. Yes, the short game is a concern, but I fully believe he can make up for it with spike putting. Pendrith is coming off his best putting performance of the season in his last start at the Players Championship, and in 2024, the former CJ Cup winner (Texas) was actually one of the best lag putters on Tour. I fully believe that version of Pendrith not only still exists, but is waiting to explode for his second career victory in the Lone Star state.


Victor Perez, $7,100 (PM/AM): Do I love the fact that Victor Perez is trending towards one of the most popular options in this range and has the wrong tee time, of course I don’t. Yet what am I supposed to do? Pivot off myself? My numbers believe that Victor Perez is an awesome course fit and in an ideal spot to make some noise this week. The Frenchman is coming off a 22nd-place finish at the Valspar where he gained over three strokes on approach and three strokes putting. While he is not an absolute bomber off the tee, his middle to long iron play will pay dividends, and the StickMan’s positive report only bolstered my case. Perez finished 17th last year at Memorial Park, gaining significantly on approach and around the greens, and proving that he possesses the most sustainable formula for success at the Tom Doak design and multiple pathways to victory. Above average power off the tee? Check. Above average long iron play? Check. Chipping off short grass? Check. Spike putting ability? Also check. Course history and prior form on other over-seeded golf courses and in Texas? You guessed it. Back in the day, this would be the type of course fit slam that would make Bobby Oppenheimer blush. I’ll have to live with the tax I administered on myself.


Matti Schmid, $7,000 (PM/AM): Similar story to Perez here. Matti Schmid is just a good old-fashioned course fit slam, and my inclination is that other sharp players are seeing what I see. Schmid ranks top-10 in this field in carry distance, and top 25 in long iron play. His ball-striking on this course alone yields a significant advantage to his similarly priced peers, and we’ve even seen some putting upside as well. Similar to Perez, I love the fact that Schmid played well last year under the over-seed, and his method of gaining significantly off the tee and with the putter runs counter to Perez but is every bit as sustainable. I’ve been on Schmid early and often this season with mixed returns, but my numbers continually appear to value his power off the tee and putting upside, which has resulted in top-25 finishes at driver-heavy courses such as Torrey Pines and whatever the hell golf course hosts the Puerto Rico Open these days. Yes, there’s an ISN tax you may have to pay on the course fit/article inclusion, but I’ve got to get back to my roots in playing to my edge: Identifying the best golf course fits based on advanced analytics and architecture, and Victor Perez and Matti Schmid are the best pure golf course fits on the slate under 7.5K when taking into consideration all of the context in my handicapping process. I would be foolish not to ride my guys at an event that was my biggest handicapping W of the season last year.

 

Pool


  • Scottie Scheffler, $12,700 (PM/AM)

  • Min Woo Lee, $9,600 (AM/PM)

  • Davis Thompson, $9,400 (PM/AM)

  • Taylor Pendrith, $8,500 (PM/AM)

  • Thomas Detry, $8,600 (PM/AM)

  • Keith Mitchell, $8,000 (PM/AM)

  • Sahith Theegala, $8,000 (AM/AM)

  • Harris English, $7,800 (AM/PM)

  • Patrick Rodgers, $7,600 (PM/AM)

  • Austin Eckroat, $7,200 (AM/PM)

  • Victor Perez, $7,100 (PM/AM)

  • Doug Ghim, $7,100 (AM/PM)

  • Jhonattan Vegas, $7,100 (AM/PM)

  • Joel Dahmen, $7,100 (AM/PM)

  • Matti Schmid, $7,000 (PM/AM)

  • Ricky Castillo, $7,000 (AM/PM)

  • Charley Hoffman, $6,900 (AM/PM)

  • Mac Meissner, $6,900 (AM/PM)

  • Ryan Fox, $6,900 (AM/PM)

  • K.H. Lee, $6,300 (AM/PM)

 

Betting Card

 

Outrights

  • Aaron Rai (35/1) (0.225U) (win: 7.9) DK

  • Davis Thompson (35/1) (0.225U) (win: 7.9) DK

  • Taylor Pendrith (45/1) (0.175U) (win: 7.9) FD

  • Keith Mitchell (No Scheffler/Rory) (45/1) (0.175U) (win: 7.9) FD

  • Alex Smalley (66/1) (0.11U) (win: 7.3) BookMaker

  • Matti Schmid (No Scheffler/Rory) (110/1) (0.065U) (win: 7.2) FD

  • Victor Perez (135/1) (0.055U) (win: 7.4) BetOnline

 

Matchups (1U each)

  • Aaron Rai (-125) over JJ Spaun BetOnline

  • Davis Thompson (-120) over Jason Day DK

  • Stephan Jaeger (-105) over Jacob Bridgeman BetOnline

 

Top 20

  • Wyndham Clark (+150) (1U) Bet365

  • Taylor Pendrith (+170) (1U) Bet365

  • Alex Smalley (+200) (0.5U) DK

  • Victor Perez (+330) (0.5U) DK

  • Matti Schmid (+400) (0.5U) DK

 

OAD: Tony Finau

  • 2024-2025 (2024 Procore – Present)

  • Outrights: -19.45U

  • Matchups: +8.01U

  • Positionals: -4.675U

  • Total: -16.115U

 

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI

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