2025 Texas Children's Houston Open Course Preview

The PGA Tour heads to Houston for the Texas Children's Houston Open, which will be returning to Spring for the second year in a row after a few editions in the Fall swing. Memorial Park will be the host course for the fifth consecutive year, an undisputed upgrade from the Golf Club of Houston, which couldn’t even stay in the LIV rotation! I am far more partial to Memorial Park, particularly given my affinity for Tom Doak. While many of the PGA Tour's best players are in full on Masters prep mode, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will both be making one final Houston pit stop before their journey down Azalea Lane.

Former Winners

2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12) over Tony Finau, Thomas Detry, Alejandro Tosti, Scottie Scheffler, Taylor Moore (-11)

• Winner Odds: Jaeger (45/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.01

2023: Tony Finau (-16) over Tyson Alexander (-12)

• Winner Odds: Finau (16/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.66

2022: Jason Kokrak (-10) over Kevin Tway, Scottie Scheffler (-8)

• Winner Odds: Kokrak (50/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.85

2021: Carlos Ortiz (-13) over Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama (-11)

• Winner Odds: Ortiz (160/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.66

The Basics

• Location: Houston, Texas

• Architect: John Bredemus (1936), Tom Doak (2019)

• Setup: Par 70/7,475 yards 

• Greens: Poa Trivialis Over-seed measuring 7,000 square feet on average

• Fairways: Perennial Rye-grass over-seed, measuring 30-40 yards wide 

• Rough: Perennial Rye-grass over-seed 

• Hazards: Water comes into play on 2 holes

Golf Course

Memorial Park is one of the best American examples that municipal golf can be good golf. Sitting inside Houston proper, the Bredemus design hosts over 60,000 rounds a year at an affordable price. In 2019, Tom Doak was hired by Houston Astros owner Jim Crane to give the course a total facelift. Doak is arguably the best working modern architect; and don't take weeks like this for granted, as we very seldom get to watch professional golfers take on a golf course with such creatively constructed greens. Doak added far more movement to the fairways and incredibly provocative, avant-garde green complexes, which allow the course to really shine. Doak is one of the few architects who understands that it is far more interesting watching pros chip uphill off tight Bermuda lies than it is watching them chip out of bunkers or thick rough. The course features only 19 bunkers, and instead we witness grand, heavily sloping collection areas that will truly require short game skill and creativity.

After three years of being held during the Fall swing, the event switched to March, and the golf course got over-seeded, or as I would call it, Augusta-fied! This completely changed the way the golf course played, and for golf course analyzers like me, this was catnip to me and a significant edge. Last year, we identified that the agronomy change was going to have a major impact on how the golf course played, and it was by far my best week of the year both in outright betting and DFS.

In terms of the actual layout itself, the golf course features three par fives and five par threes, which measure between 155 and 237 yards, and with over 70% of approach shots from over 150 yards, it plays as one of the longest golf courses on Tour, even despite the fact that it is so driver heavy. In terms of the weather we can expect this week however, I’m seeing a strong potential for a fair amount of rain, which would result in a much softer golf course than we saw last year, and even the potential for delays. As I write this on Friday (SO much can change between now and then, so be sure to check the Discord for updates—we will have the StickMan on site once again), the golf course will see some rain over night on Monday and into early Tuesday morning. We can also expect significant rain in the forecast again on Friday afternoon and all the way through Saturday.

If this weather holds, I’d expect conditions similar to the COVID Masters. An extremely long, soft golf course, but still enough wind to play difficult. Memorial Park is extremely driver-heavy where length is a huge advantage. Last year, under drier conditions, players with a high carry distance and apex height led the way at the top of the leaderboard. This version of Memorial Park is a quintessential Driver-Short Game course. Last year, Tony Finau and Stephan Jaeger were both core plays for me that finished first and second. Thomas Detry and Taylor Moore also finished runner-up, and Max Greyserman wasn’t far behind. Oh, and I think Scottie Scheffler might actually hit the ball pretty well and have great touch around the green as well! Every single one of these players murder it off the tee and have a great short game, and they each ranked top-30 in driving distance and strokes gained around the green. Finau, Jaeger, Detry, and Moore didn’t even hit their irons all that well, but their power off the tee and short game was so dialed in. One of the biggest standout aspects of Memorial Park is the fact that it features large, extremely challenging greenside complexes, and players will need both elite lag putting skill and short game expertise to get up and down at will on the difficult par threes and par fours. Golf courses like Augusta National and Quail Hollow are incredibly similar to this, and the Augusta-fication of Memorial Park has created such an incredibly straightforward handicap of this golf course. Bomb it off the tee or elite long play. Awesome chipping off short grass, or great lag putting skill. It’s really that simple.

Stats

Off the Tee

Last year, Memorial Park ranked 28th out of 43 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Last year, driving distance was 302 yards, 9.6 yards above Tour average, and driving accuracy was 51.7%. With the over-seed, Memorial Park played as a as a clear driver-heavy golf course with a low missed fairway penalty where players were bombing away with reckless abandon. The driver usage percentage increased from 70.9% to 81.9% with the over-seed. This golf course is so much more about hitting the ball a long way than it is about finding the fairway, and the top of the leaderboard last year reflected this, as every single one of the top 6 finishers (Jaeger, Finau, Scheffler, Detry, Moore, and Tosti) are among some of the longest drivers on the PGA TOUR. (Editor’s Note: “Short-Hitting Scottie Scheffler” is a bit of a misnomer; he’s not as long as some of the game’s truly elite drivers but averages comfortably over 300 yards off the tee.) The reason why this golf course became such a distance over accuracy golf course is that they decided to chop all the rough down and over-seed the little rough that they did have left, which resulted in ranking 43rd out of 43 courses in missed fairway penalty and 42nd out of 43 courses in rough penalty, and only 27th in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke, The over-seeded version of Memorial Park is a “bombs away with reckless abandon” golf course, and I am heavily accentuating carry distance this year in soft conditions, as well as identifying the best drivers of the ball on similar set-ups.

The players with the longest carry distance in this field are Aldrich Potgieter, Rory McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Kyle Westmoreland.

The best players off the tee on “Bombs Away,” golf courses that are driver-heavy and feature a low missed fairway penalty have been Rory McIlroy, Patrick Rodgers, Davis Thompson, Tony Finau, and Min Woo Lee.

Approach

Last year, Memorial Park ranked 23rd out of 43 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty.

Proximity

Long-iron play remains an incredibly important skill at Memorial Park, given the fact that it has three reachable par 5s, three long par threes, and five long par fours. Still, this is not necessarily a spike approach course, or at least, there are other pathways to win the golf tournament without elite long-iron play. Five of the top 6 finishers on the leaderboard last year all ranked outside of the top 20 in approach, and historically, approach play has played a smaller role in the strokes gained pie than putting among top 20, top 10, top 5, and winners. This is generally what helps me decipher whether this is more of a spike putting or spike approach course. Ultimately, Memorial Park is extremely balanced, and long-iron approach play is an incredibly important aspect of the equation, but if there is ever a course to take the Jaeger/Taylor Moore/Thomas Detry/Alejandro Tosti method of bombing it off the tee and getting it up and down from everywhere, this is the golf course. Still, the best long iron players in this field are Kurt Kitayama, Jake Knapp, Michael Kim, Mac Meissner, and Sami Valimaki.

Around the Green

Last year, Memorial Park ranked 21st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty. It ranked sixth in strokes gained difficulty from the fairway, 31st from the rough, and 41st from the bunkers, and in this case, degree of difficulty matches up with volume. Chipping off short grass is anything and everything at Memorial Park. Tom Doak comes from the modern school of golf architecture, understanding the short grass enhances creativity and shot-making, and what do you know? The data backed it up! Memorial Park played as one of the most difficult around-the-green courses from the fairway on Tour, and this played a major role in determining the outcome of the tournament. Essentially, if you could get it up and down at a high level, you auto-ensured yourself a made cut. There just aren’t that many true birdie opportunities on this golf course, so avoiding bogeys with an elite short game is paramount. The top 10 players in strokes gained around the green last year all finished in the top 45, which is certainly not an every-week occurrence, and a whopping seven of the top 10 finishers last year ranked top-15 in around-the-green play.

The best overall around-the-green players are Beau Hossler, Min Woo Lee, C.T. Pan, Alex Smalley, and Mackenzie Hughes.

The best chippers off short grass are Nate Lashley, Andrew Putnam, Greyson Sigg, Mac Meissner, and Henrik Norlander.

The best around-the-green players on other Short-Grass-Intensive golf courses are Aaron Rai, Scottie Scheffler, Stephan Jaeger, Harris English, and Rickie Fowler.

Putting

Last year, Memorial Park, ranked 14th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty. The Doak design ranked 15th in putting difficulty from inside five feet, 12th from five to 15 feet, and 16th from greater than 15 feet. These are some of the most difficult, undulating green complexes on Tour, but they run incredibly smooth and true due to the over-seed.

Despite being a challenging golf course from tee to green (mainly because of its length), Memorial Park is absolutely a golf course where putting skill matters. This is mainly due to the fact that the proximity to the hole on this course is one the highest on Tour due to the amount of long-iron approaches, so lag putting skill is highly valued. Not to mention, with the copious amounts of short grass, players can also putt from around the green. Thus, if you don’t have a great short game, fear not! You can still use the Texas Wedge! These are the second-best set of greens that players will encounter all season outside of Augusta National, in terms of the actual green construction and internal contouring alone, and the reason why my weight on putting is just as high as it is around the green. Players can solve a lot of problems this week with elite lag putting.

The best lag putters in this field are Karl Vilips, Vince Whaley, Emiliano Grillo, Andrew Putnam, and Michael Kim.

The best Over-seeded Bermuda putters are Sam Ryder, Taylor Montgomery, Jake Knapp, Thomas Detry, and Nick Taylor.

Scoring Stats

The Florida swing is behind us, and we now head to the Lone Star state, another locale that routinely hosts PGA Tour events and is home to many players as well. Texas is known for swirling winds, but it does feature a variety of different agronomies, so I would not say we need to identify “Texas specialists” in the same way we identify “Florida specialists.” Still, the best players in Texas over the past five years have been Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland, Davis Riley, and Mackenzie Hughes.

The over-seeding of Memorial Park completely changed the way the golf course played, very similar to how the over-seeding of PGA National also entirely perturbed the character of that golf course. It got me thinking, who is this over-seed actually good for? Over-seeded golf courses feature extremely consistent rough and carpet-like fairways. They are generally quite green and evoke pristine conditions. So who is a pampered fuck? Who is the over-seeded Army? The best players in this field on over-seeded golf courses over the past three years have been Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy, and Si Woo Kim.

Comp Courses/Course History

Yes, the over-seed dramatically changed the way this golf course plays, but I would not throw the three years of the non-overseeded Houston Open out the window either. The holes are still the same, the sight patterns remain unchanged, but the way the way golf ball interacts with the ground and rough have solely changed the path to victory. The best players at Memorial Park over the last four years have been Tony Finau, Thomas Detry, Scottie Scheffler, Aaron Rai, and Mackenzie Hughes.

I’ve alluded to the Augusta-fication of this golf course, and outside of the Masters venue, it also reminds me an awful lot of Quail Hollow, another bomber-friendly golf courses with a ton of short grass, large undulating green complexes, a tremendous amount of long par fours, and long irons galore. Similarly, Congaree, another Rory golf course, fits the similar bill of short grass everywhere, is long-iron intensive, and bomber friendly. Understand why Rory added Memorial Park to his schedule now. The best players in this field on the comp courses have been Rory McIlroy, Joel Dahmen, Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, and Jason Day.

Model

Off the Tee (20%) (PGA Tour Average: 18%)

• L50 Carry Distance (10%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (6%)

• L3 Years “Bombs Away”: Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Driver Heavy, Low Missed Fairway Penalty (5%)

Approach (27%) (PGA Tour Average: 28%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Approach (11%)

• L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (8%)

• L75 Proximity 200 yards plus (8%)

Around the Green (15%) (PGA Tour average: 10%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Around the Green (8%)

• L50 Scrambling: Short Grass (4%)

• L24 Strokes Gained Around the Green: Quail Hollow/Augusta National/Quail Hollow (3%)

Putting (17%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa Trivialis (6%)

• L50 Three Putt Avoidance 25 Feet Plus (5%)

• L50 Putting Five to 10 Feet (3%)

• L50 Putting 10 to 15 Feet (3%)

Scoring Stats (9%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: Texas (4%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Ball-striking: Over-seeded Golf Courses (5%)

Comp Courses/Course History (12%)

• L24 Memorial Park (5%)

• L36 Augusta National/Quail Hollow/Congaree (7%)

Model Top 20

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Kurt Kitayama

4. Tony Finau

5. Si Woo Kim

6. Davis Thompson

7. Aaron Rai

8. Sungjae Im

9. Jason Day

10. Joel Dahmen

11. Maverick McNealy

12. Alex Smalley

13. Jhonattan Vegas

14. Charley Hoffman

15. Taylor Moore

16. Stephan Jaeger

17. Taylor Pendrith

18. Wyndham Clark

19. Min Woo Lee

20. Michael Kim

Player Profile: Davis Thompson

Take it for what you will, but Stephan Jaeger was my player profile last year, so hopefully we can keep the good vibes rolling with another bomber off the tee in strong form who can also heat up on and around the greens. Thompson is the quintessential Memorial Park player. He bombs the ball off the tee, ranking seventh in recent off the tee play, 37th in carry distance, and third off the tee on driver-heavy golf courses with a low missed fairway penalty. The reigning John Deere Classic champion (we hit him there too!) also ranks top-20 in this field in overall recent around-the-green play and scrambling from the short grass. He utilized this Bomber-Short Game prototype to finish 21st at Memorial Park last year, gaining significantly in those two categories. Even more encouraging is the recent form, as Thompson is coming off a 10th-place finish at TPC Sawgrass, a golf course that is a far worse fit for his skill-set than Memorial Park. Approach play is generally one of the weaker aspects of Thompson’s game, but he has now gained strokes on approach in four straight starts, and his prowess off the tee and around the greens hasn’t suffered either. I’m calling my shot once again. Davis Thompson is your 2025 Houston Open winner.