2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Course Preview

For the second year in a row, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will play as a Signature event, featuring a field of 80 players. While this debut format at Pebble Beach didn’t truly get to realize its potential with the final round being canceled to an atmospheric river in Northern California, 2025 should provide the Sunday battle at Pebble Beach without amateurs we have always been hoping for. Prior to last year, Pebble Beach was a Pro-Am event with a cut, where players rotated their first three rounds between Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterrey Peninsula Country Club. Under the new format, players will rotate their Thursday and Friday rounds at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill before playing both weekend rounds at Pebble Beach. The tournament will not feature a cut, and there will be no amateur play over the weekend either. This is undeniably a change for the positive, as we can finally say goodbye to the bloated Saturday coverage of Bill Murray and Larry Fitzgerald. We still may see a few celebrity shots on Thursday and Friday, but more golf shots from the best players in the world over the weekend at Pebble Beach is a huge win for fans, and we will even get our first look at Scottie Scheffler this year as well.

Former Winners

2024: Wyndham Clark (-17) over Ludvig Aberg (-16)

• Winner Odds: Clark (75/1)

Scoring Average

• Pebble Beach: -2.18

• Spyglass Hill: -1.42

2023: Justin Rose (-18) over Brendon Todd, Brandon Wu (-15)

• Winner Odds: Rose (35/1)

Scoring Average

• Pebble Beach: -0.38

• Spyglass Hill: +0.8

2022: Tom Hoge (-19) over Jordan Spieth (-17)

• Winner Odds: Hoge (55/1)

Scoring Average

• Pebble Beach: -1.3

• Spyglass Hill: +0.18

2021: Daniel Berger (-18) over Maverick McNealy (-16)

• Winner Odds: Berger (15/1)

Scoring Average

• Pebble Beach: -0.8

• Spyglass Hill: +0.8

2020: Nick Taylor (-19) over Kevin Streelman (-15)

• Winner Odds: Taylor (120/1)

Scoring Average

• Pebble Beach: +0.37

• Spyglass Hill: +0.88

Five Year Average

• Pebble Beach: -0.86 (+0.37 to -2.18)

• Spyglass Hill: +0.25 (+0.88 to -1.42)

The Basics

Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links

Location: Pebble Beach, California

Designer: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant (1919)

Par/Length: Par 72; 6,972 yards

Hazards: Water comes into play on one hole

Fairways: Poa, measuring 43 yards wide

Rough: Rye-grass, measuring 2 inches

Greens: 3,500 square feet on average, Poa, running 10 on the stimp

Course: Spyglass Hill

Location: Pebble Beach, California

Designer: Robert Trent Jones Sr. (1966), with 1999 renovation

Par/Length: Par 72 (7,041 yards)

Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes

Fairways: Perennial Ryegrass/Poa annua

Rough: Perennial Ryegrass/Poa annua measuring 2 inches

Greens: 5,000 square feet on average, Poa

Golf Course

Similar to the course rotation at Torrey Pines last week, we’ll focus the majority of our attention on the track that is accounting for 75% of the action (in this week’s case, Pebble Beach.) Both Pebble and Spyglass Hill play as par 72s, with less than 100 yards in difference of total length between the two. Both feature generous landing areas and are definitively second-shot golf courses with small, tricky Poa Annua greens. The largest difference between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill is that Pebble is a true less-than-driver course that strongly de-values driving in general, while Spyglass Hill is far more of a driver-heavy golf course where distance is certainly helpful. The one round at Spyglass certainly advantaged Ludvig and Wyndham last year, as neither’s driving skill is remotely accentuated at Pebble Beach. For the most part, my model mainly reflects Pebble Beach, with an added bump to driving distance, a useful tool at Spyglass Hill.

Contrary to Spyglass, Pebble Beach is a true less-than-driver course that features a great deal of forced layups, wide fairways, and a low missed fairway penalty. This explains the dramatic long-term correlation at Pebble Beach between approach play and success, in sacrifice for any value in distance or accuracy off the tee. At Pebble Beach, wedge play and putting from five to 15 feet is the name of the game. Pebble features just as challenging Poa greens as we saw last week at Torrey Pines, and since it is far less of a driving test, the importance of navigating the Poa greens is even more important than it is at Torrey Pines or Riviera. Seven of the 10 par fours at Pebble Beach fall between 370 and 450 yards, one of the par threes is only 100 yards long, and one of the par fives is a true-three shot hole, which explains the massive plurality of approach shots from 125 yards and in.

In the absence of wind, Pebble Beach generally plays as one of the easier golf courses on Tour, but I would certainly expect more challenging conditions this week at Pebble, than what we saw last year. It’s important to note that last year the golf course played extremely soft, and we saw our lowest scoring average at Pebble Beach in over a decade. It played a full stroke and a half easier than it typically plays, and Spyglass played nearly two strokes easier than it usually plays. I would expect a return to 2022 conditions where Pebble played around -1.5 strokes under par and Spyglass Hill played at even par. In fact, the wind really looks to pick up over the weekend, and we may actually see some real carnage across Saturday and Sunday.

Be sure to monitor the Discord for daily weather updates, if this forecast looks similar by Monday afternoon, I will certainly be tweaking my model to account for incredibly windy conditions over the weekend.

Yes, Pebble is still an extremely outdated course in 2025 that needs to be updated to account for the increases in modern technology. When we get receptive conditions and no wind like last year, it just turns into a total dart throwing and putting contest, and we saw the best wedge player and putter in the field absolutely run away with it.

Overall, Pebble tends to fall a bit flat for me as a legitimate test. It does not test driving skill at all. It's a perfect example of a golf course that would benefit greatly from a shorter traveling ball. With that said, I’m cautiously optimistic that we will see some spicy conditions over the weekend, that hopefully don’t become spicy enough to cancel the tournament again!

Stats

Off the Tee (10%)

Driving distance at Pebble Beach is just 277.4 yards, 15 yards below Tour average, with a driving accuracy percentage of 69.2%, 10.5% above Tour average, with fairways measuring 35.4 yards wide. It features the lowest average driving distance on the entire PGA Tour, the third-highest standard deviation of driving distance and third-highest driving accuracy percentage. Driver usage at Pebble Beach over the last five years is around 44% compared to the PGA Tour average of 67%. This is the most quintessential club-down course on the PGA Tour, and we should not be fooled by Clark and Ludvig at the top of the leaderboard last year as both players got it done exclusively with their putter.

Pebble Beach ranks 11th out of 43 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, but only because it is such a difficult golf course to separate on off the tee. It has the ninth-lowest missed fairway penalty and the seventh-lowest rough penalty on the entire PGA Tour. Outside of the Pacific Ocean, players can still get away with the big miss, as Pebble only ranks 29th out 43 courses in non-rough penalty.

Pebble is one of the least correlated courses with both distance and accuracy. Last year, not a single player in the top 20 of the leaderboard last year ranked top-10 in driving accuracy. In 2022, four out of the top 10 players on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving accuracy, and five out of the top 10 players lost in distance. In 2023, the top four players lost to the field in driving distance, and four out of the top 10 lost in driving accuracy. Justin Rose and Peter Malnati finished first and fourth that year both losing strokes off the tee.

These are wide fairways with very little incentive to bomb away with driver, and the name of the game at Pebble Beach is essentially pick the clubs off the tee that give you the best wedge numbers in. Spyglass Hill values driver much more than Pebble Beach, and if Pebble Beach is a wedges and irons golf course, Spyglass is a driver/putter golf course. My best recommendation for modeling this week is heavily de-valuing driver in general, and I have just a small weight on carry distance to account for Spyglass, and performance on less-than-driver golf courses to account for Pebble.

Approach (30%)

Last year, Pebble Beach ranked 15th out of 43 courses in approach difficulty, and it is still a tough approach course where players are navigating small targets. When we de-value the importance of driving, the emphasis falls squarely on approach play, and Pebble Beach is a perfect example of this. Players are forced to hit to similar spots in wide fairways, with a penalty for misses.

Greens-in-regulation percentage at Pebble Beach was still 72.2%, 6.3% above Tour average last year, featuring the 15th-easiest greens to hit on Tour. Yet long iron approach play is very difficult at Pebble Beach, and it generally ranks toward the top of the PGA Tour in approach difficulty from 150 yards-plus.

Proximity

Pebble Beach is definitively a wedges and long irons course, which is mainly because there are four par fives (three being certainly reachable) and two long par threes, as well as a whopping eight par fours that measure under 430 yards. While the golf ball travels a lot shorter in the thicker air and Pebble plays a lot longer than the scorecard suggests, the name of the game is taking advantage of the par fives and short par fours.

The best players in this field from inside 125 yards are Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, and Doug Ghim.

The best players in this field from 200 yards-plus are Keith Mitchell, Robert MacIntyre, Mark Hubbard, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy.

Around the Green (9%)

Around-the-green play is statistically the easiest aspect of Pebble Beach, and last year, it ranked 40th out of 43 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty. It ranked 43rd in difficulty from the fairway, 35th from the rough, and seventh from the bunkers.

You may hear a lot this week that since Pebble Beach has the smallest greens on Tour, short game raises in prominence, but that is not statistically accurate. Despite the small targets, Pebble still has a higher-than-average greens-in-regulation percentage, and the degree of difficulty of the short game shots at the historic venue are incredibly low. Scrambling was even way easier last year under receptive conditions, as the up-and-down percentage rose from 58% to 66%, and scrambling from the short grass rose from 56% to 69%. The bunkers are still amongst the more challenging on Tour, but I would not advise anything more than a small weight on bunker play/overall around-the-green play. The best bunker players in this field are Eric Cole, Billy Horschel, Beau Hossler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sungjae Im.

Putting (21%)

Similar to Torrey Pines, we are once again dealing with small, tilted Poa greens. Last year, Pebble Beach ranked sixth out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and holing short putts is by far the most difficult aspect of the golf course. Unlike Torrey Pines however, Pebble is not a difficult golf course from tee to green, and it requires little driving skill at all, thus increasing the necessity to separate on the greens.

Last year, Pebble Beach ranked third out of 43 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, ninth from five to 15 feet, and 10th from 15 feet-plus. Wyndham Clark did not lift and separate last year with elite tee-to-green play. He won that tournament purely on the greens, gaining over 10 strokes putting in three rounds of golf. Make percentage from five to 10 feet at Pebble Beach hovers around 50%, compared to the Tour average of 57%, so just like last week, get ready to tilt. Even though the degree of difficulty, I’d argue putting skill from five to 15 feet and Poa experience is even more important at Pebble Beach than it was at Torrey, as it is harder to separate with elite tee-to-green play at the former.

The best putters in this field from five to 15 feet are Erik Van Rooyen, Jason Day, Maverick McNealy, Mark Hubbard, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

The best long-term Poa putters in this field are Maverick McNealy, Max Homa, Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, and Mackenzie Hughes.

Scoring Stats (16%)

Both Spyglass Hill and Pebble play as par 72s, placing an increased emphasis on par-five scoring. Of the eight par fives at Pebble and Spyglass, only the 14th at Pebble is a true three-shot hole. Those who can capitalize in par-five scoring possess a massive advantage this week, particularly at Spyglass. The best par-five scorers in this field have been Davis Thompson, Max Greyserman, J.J. Spaun, Sungjae Im, and Harry Hall.

I've already alluded to contrasting styles between Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines. Pebble Beach is an extremely short, less-than-driver course that emphasizes wedge play and putting. This is a different style of test than accuracy-laden courses such as TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, and Harbour Town. There are certain players who lick their chops when we get to tracks like these (Sea Island, Silverado, Port Royal, etc.) The best players in this field over the last three years at shorter, less-than-driver courses that tend to de-value off the tee but place a premium on wedge play and putting have been Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, Brian Harman, and Sam Burns.

Of course, a quick update of our California rankings with a Signature field displays Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, and Patrick Cantlay as the specialists.

Comp Courses/Course History (14%)

Pebble Beach ranks right around middle of the pack in terms of course history correlation. Outside of the Poa greens, it’s not a particularly nuanced or strategic course from tee to green. If we look at the players who have typically experienced success here (Daniel Berger, Dustin Johnson, Maverick McNealy, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Tim Clark, Corey Pavin, Jordan Spieth, etc.) they all either check the box of experience on Poa greens/West Coast connection and/or elite wedge play. The profile we should be looking for is clear as day. The best players at Pebble Beach/Spyglass Hill have been Jason Day, Justin Rose, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, and Nick Taylor.

Particularly if we experience more obtrusive weather this week, Port Royal (host of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship) is a course that bears a stark resemblance to Pebble. Both tracks are coastal, subject to occasionally extreme weather conditions, with wide landing areas off the tee that de-emphasize driving and place a much greater emphasis on scoring inside 150 yards and putting inside 15 feet.

Though more parkland in its nature (and probably a stronger reference point for Spyglass), Silverado, host of the Fortinet Championship, is another West Coast (specifically Northern California), partially Poa golf course that sacrifices the importance of driving in exchange for wedge play, and similarly features devilishly tricky greens. The best players in this field at these two comp courses have been Justin Thomas, Brendon Todd, Justin Lower, Mark Hubbard, and Thomas Detry.

Model

Off the Tee (10%) (PGA Tour Average: 18%)

• L50 Rounds Carry Distance (5%)

• L2 Years Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Less than Driver (5%)

Approach (30%) (PGA Tour Average: 28%)

• L36 Rounds Strokes Gained Approach (13%)

• L75 Rounds Proximity Inside 100 yards (4%)

• L75 Rounds Proximity 100-125 yards (6%)

• L75 Rounds Proximity 200 yards plus (7%)

Around the Green (9%) (PGA Tour average: 10%)

• L50 Rounds Strokes Gained Around the Green (5%)

• L50 Rounds Sand Save Percentage (4%)

Putting (21%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa (7%)

• L50 Rounds Putting 5-10 Ft (7%)

• L50 Rounds Putting 10-15 Ft (7%)

Scoring Stats (16%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: California (4%)

• L50 Rounds Par 5 Scoring (5%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Total: Short, Less than Driver Courses (7%)

Comp Courses/Course History (14%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 Rounds Pebble Beach (7%)

• L24 Rounds Spyglass Hill (3%)

• L24 Rounds Port Royal (2%)

• L24 Rounds Silverado (2%)

Model Top 20

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Hideki Matsuyama

3. Tom Hoge

4. Justin Thomas

5. Ludvig Aberg

6. Eric Cole

7. Adam Scott

8. Rory McIlroy

9. Patrick Cantlay

10. Denny McCarthy

11. Viktor Hovland

12. Wyndham Clark

13. Mark Hubbard

14. Maverick McNealy

15. Sam Burns

16. Tommy Fleetwood

17. Collin Morikawa

18. Taylor Pendrith

19. Tony Finau

20. Keith Mitchell

Player Profile: Tom Hoge

We hit Tom Hoge at Pebble Beach in 2022, and while I’m not sure I see Tommy Tables winning twice in four years, this is a golf course I expect him to continue to succeed at. While Hoge won this event prior to it receiving Signature status, he also finished sixth last year in an elite field. The name of the game at Pebble Beach is wedge play and putting from five to 15 feet, and these are two areas that Hoge reliably excels at. Pebble is not a golf course that really rewards driving skill at all, which plays right into Hoge’s hands. The iconic U.S. Open venue allows players to identify their favorite wedge distances on a plethora of short par fours and allow their second shot to do the talking. This is an ideal setup for Hoge, and I expect him to feast at Pebble for years to come.