2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Thoughts

I will refrain from an over-inflated weather breakdown this week, as we are fortunate to having the legendary “UTStick” join us for the show premium show this evening, who has walked the golf course the last two days. Yet my major takeaways from what I’m seeing and hearing is that Bay Hill will be every bit the test we have grown to know and love over the past couple of years, with Thursday and Sunday playing a lot more difficult than Friday and Saturday. For the prop hunters, hitting the overs hard on Thursday, before coming back on the unders on Friday feels a very logical strategy this week. Based on what I am seeing above, I would expect Thursday to play demonstrably harder than Friday, with Thursday morning as potentially the worst time to be on the golf course.

The more players you can get that tee off later in the day on Thursday, the better. I will be hoping to jam as many late tee times as possible on Thursday, but I would not pivot off your favorite plays if they are forced to suffer through the wind and cold on Thursday morning. Over the course of four days, players will find themselves in all sorts of pockets of more challenging weather without a true wave split, but a later tee time on Thursday could be a worthy tie-breaker. All in all, I’m sticking with my 2021 comp for scoring conditions. Harder than the last two years, but not quite 2020 or 2022 in terms of impossibility.

Winning Score Prediction: -11

Scoring Average Prediction: +1.1

Core

Scottie Scheffler, $12,000: I warned on the Sunday podcast that Bay Hill might be the very best golf course on Tour for Scottie Scheffler’s skill-set, and nothing I’ve seen or heard this week has caused me to deviate from believing that he is the most likely player to win this tournament by a healthy margin. In fact, Scottie under 40% in a 72-man field on a golf course that accentuates total driving and long-iron play might be one of the steals of the season. Yet the Scottie proposition this week is not an obvious choice, as evidenced by the fact that close to 60% of the field will not be deploying him. The 6K range is a bit of landmines, and the more we can avoid the bottom of the board, who will make up 75% of the players that will miss the cut, the better. A Scottie-heavy approach sacrifices the balanced build, and my hand is still forced with two core plays under 7.5K. Still, my thought process this week is that Scottie possesses the highest floor in this field by a healthy margin, and even if he does not win by five strokes like last year, I have a difficult time seeing him finish outside of the top five on this golf course. Scheffler ranks first in this field in strokes gained total at Bay Hill, first in this field in strokes gained total in Florida, first in strokes gained total on long and difficult golf courses, first on long golf courses with thick, rough and firm greens, and the only other course I would argue comes close to Bay Hill in terms of its fit for Scheffler on the PGA Tour is Muirfield Village. I would feel more comfortable locking at Scottie at Bay Hill and Muirfield Village than I would at Augusta and TPC Sawgrass if we are talking purely about course fit. My only reason for not locking Scheffler in more than 50% of my lineups is that I also have a severe Rory problem, and the $1,200 savings we receive on Rory allows us to build far more balanced and safer lineups that don’t require a dumpster dive. Still, I’m highlighting Scottie over Rory for here for a reason. I do believe Scottie is the better overall play and option, even considering price and ownership, and I will gladly go to battle with him in my single entry as well. Bold prediction: Scottie wins this week but does not repeat at either Players or Masters. I’m putting all my chips in on SHSS this week at sub-40% ownership, with a keen eye on a potential fade at tournaments to come.

Patrick Cantlay, $9,500: While Patrick Cantlay has genuinely been a great DFS play this season, with three top-15 finishes in four starts, it’s time to nut up and win, and I really believe that if not Scottie or Rory, this is the time for Pat. We’ve seen him lift and separate on challenging, firm, fast Bermuda at the U.S. Open last year, a highly encouraging performance under difficult conditions, and a fifth-place finish this year at a long, wet, roughed up version of Torrey Pines where he gained 1.4 strokes off the tee and 3.5 strokes on approach also deserves praise. And that’s not even mentioning his multiple victories at Muirfield Village, which from an architecture and required skill-set standpoint remains my favorite comp course of the week. Cantlay has all the tools to succeed at Bay Hill. He’s a solid driver of the golf ball with above-average length and distance. He's finally beginning to his stripe his irons and is coming off his best approach week of the season. Roll the tape from any of his victories at Muirfield Village and you will see our man has mastered the “Hack it Out” chip from thick rough. Previously a Bent Grass merchant, Cantlay also appears to have cracked the code on Bermuda, with a prior elite putting performance here as well as at Pinehurst. Reports from the ground have been awfully optimistic that Pat in the Hat is a man on a mission the week, and given my long and arduous journey with one of the toughest players to root for (yet also most statistically well-rounded) on Tour, I’m not missing it. 

Aaron Rai, $7,300: Long time readers will not be the least bit surprised to find Aaron Rai in my core this week on a golf course that accentuates accuracy off-the-tee and long-iron play, and we have already ridden him to a strong finish in Mexico this year where he gained a whopping nine strokes on approach. Rai was also a core play for us at Torrey Pines, and he sleepwalked his way through the cut on another long and difficult golf course despite not having anything resembling his best stuff. Aaron Rai is the type of old-school flusher that was probably born too late. He has never been one to chase distance, instead opting for the old-school route of just hitting every fairway he looks at and finding the center of the club face with a four iron with the type of consistency that would make Ben Hogan blush (editor's note: I'm keeping this in here because it's just that ridiculous). So long as Rai continues to gain 12 strokes ball-striking on a semi-regular basis on long-iron-intensive golf courses, he will always have a home in my pool, and this also marks the week that the two-gloved Englishman will stamp his ticket to Bethpage as a member of the European Ryder Cup. I can already hearing myself shout it from the rooftops (a podcast) come July, “Remember when Aaron Rai finished T4 at Bay Hill in March, that’s basically Bethpage South!” We at ISN play Aaron Rai on golf courses that highlight elite tee-to-green skill, with a specific focus on accuracy off the tee and long iron play. No questions asked.

Davis Thompson, $7,200: I feel like I’m starting to get a really good beat on Davis Thompson as a golfer. He was in my pool at Torrey Pines where he finished T13 (this result should have been way better, as he really spat the bit over the weekend), and was an easy fade last week at the Cognizant on an approach and putting golf course. The time to play Davy T is on long golf courses with a low greens-in-regulation percentage that will highlight both his elite driving ability and his elite short game. Only true ball-knowers remember that he held a share of the first round lead at the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot. Thompson actually ranks top-five in recent off-the-tee play, and FIRST in around-the-green play on courses with thick rough over the past two years. Playing his college in the SEC, Davy T should be more than comfortable on Bermuda, and I would even argue that this is a better golf course for him than Torrey Pines. Similar to Rai, Thompson will use this week as a strong audition for Bethpage, as both Bay Hill and the People’s Country Club ask a highly specific set of questions. Not only does Davy T have the answers, but I actually think he’s good enough to screw around and win a Signature Event this year. If that happens, it’s coming this week or at Quail, another spot where he can let loose off the tee and scramble his butt off. Another ideal spot for an obvious long-term buy.

Pool

• Scottie Scheffler, $12,000

• Rory McIlroy, $10,800

• Patrick Cantlay, $9,500

• Tommy Fleetwood, $9,100

• Keegan Bradley, $8,400

• Robert MacIntyre, $8,000

• Taylor Pendrith, $7,900

• Matt Fitzpatrick, $7,700

• Adam Scott, $7,500

• Denny McCarthy, $7,300

• Aaron Rai, $7,300

• Davis Thompson, $7,200

• Thomas Detry, $7,200

• Billy Horschel, $7,100

• Cameron Young, $7,000

• Brian Harman, $6,800

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $6,500

• Lucas Glover, $6,400

• Max Homa, $6,300

Betting Card

Outrights

• Tommy Fleetwood (30/1) (0.25U) (win: 7.5) DK

• Patrick Cantlay (30/1) (0.25U) (win: 7.5) FD

• Sungjae Im (50/1) (0.15U) (win: 7.5) Bet365

• Sam Burns (55/1) (0.14U) (win: 7.7) FD

• Keegan Bradley (58/1) (0.13U) (win: 7.5) BM

• Matt Fitzpatrick (90/1) (0.08U) (win: 7.2) Bet365

Matchups (1U each)

• Sam Burns (-125) over Tony Finau

• Keegan Bradley (-125) over Daniel Berger

• Harris English (-105) over Stephan Jaeger

Top 10 (3.5U Total)

• Justin Thomas (+200) (0.5U)

• Patrick Cantlay (+210) (0.5U)

• Tommy Fleetwood (+210) (0.5U)

• Sungjae Im (+300) (0.5U)

• Shane Lowry (+320) (0.5U)

• Will Zalatoris (+350) (0.5U)

• Viktor Hovland (+360) (0.5U)

2024-2025

Outrights: -16.45U

Positionals: -7.7U

Matchups: +9.77U

Total: -14.38U

Risk: 144.5U, Win: -14.38U

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI