2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview

After a disappointing #NotMyHonda, I’m tentatively excited for the fourth signature event of the season, the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The API will receive the signature banner for the second year in a row, and the 72-man field is one of the few signature events that will also feature a cut. Similar to the Genesis Invitational, only the top 50 players and ties will advance to the weekend, which feels fairly nonsensical to me. Regardless, Bay Hill is one of the best tests of skill on the PGA Tour, and while I have my qualms with the banal Florida architecture and setting, the Dick Wilson design generally does an excellent job of separating the men from the boys. We will also be granted our best field of the season, as this is the first time that Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Xander Schauffele will all be teeing it up for the same event.

Former Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15) over Wyndham Clark (-10)

• Pre-tournament odds: Scheffler (+650)

• Scoring Average: +0.37

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9) over Rory McIlroy, Harris English (-8)

• Pre-tournament odds: Kitayama (250/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.61

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5) over Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland (-4)

• Pre-tournament odds: Scheffler (19/1)

• Scoring Average: +2.04

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11) over Lee Westwood (-9)

• Pre-tournament odds: DeChambeau (12/1)

• Scoring Average: +1.09

2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4) over Marc Leishman (-3)

• Pre-tournament odds: Hatton (55/1)

• Scoring Average: +2.4

The Basics

• Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge

• Location: Windermere, Florida

• Designer: Dick Wilson & Joe Lee (1961), Arnold Palmer re-design in 2009

• Par/Length: Par 72; 7,466 yards

• Hazards: Water comes into play on 9 holes

• Fairways: Perennial Rye-grass overseed, measuring 30 yards wide

• Rough: Perennial Rye-grass overseed, measuring 3 inches

• Greens: 7,500 square foot TifEagle Bermuda greens, running 12 on the stimp

• Important change for 2025: The beach bunker on the 17th hole has been removed in exchange for short grass, which in theory, should mean more water balls. I’m going to need to see it in action, but this appears to be a change for the better.

Golf Course

Bay Hill has been a staple on the PGA Tour since the 1970s, and it epitomizes tough, windy, water-heavy, firm, flat Florida like few others. Despite featuring an extra par five, Bay Hill is a more challenging golf course than PGA National, largely due to the fact that they actually allow the rough grow out to three-plus inches. Along with Muirfield Village and Torrey Pines, it typically ranks as the hardest par 72 on the PGA Tour, and for my money, it’s the hardest of the three. When it gets really firm and windy (2020 and 2022), the golf course is nearly impossible and plays just as challenging as a U.S. Open. In 2020, when Tyrrell Hatton won at four under par, Bay Hill was the hardest course players saw all season, including the majors. 2022 came close as well, when Scottie Scheffler triumphed at five under par.

Yet this has not always been the case. Following Rory McIlroy’s 18-under par victory in 2018, Chris Flynn took over as the head superintendent. Among the changes that Flynn made included widening the fairways, removing much of the rough around the hazards (making it easier for balls to roll in), shaving off areas around the green (making it easier for balls to roll farther away from pin locations into collection areas), and making the rough they did have even longer. Post Flynn, Bay Hill is routinely one of the three most difficult tests on the PGA Tour, and Muirfield Village is the only other regular venue that does a better job of testing total driving. I would have absolutely zero interest in playing Bay Hill myself, and the golf course works not because it has creative architecture but rather because it features three inch rough, water, fast greens, and often wind. Yet what makes Bay Hill (and Muirfield Village for that matter—they are incredible similar in this way) such an incredible test of professional golf is that unlike Torrey Pines, it cannot be bludgeoned to death. Similar to Muirfield Village and Marco Simone (host of the 2023 Ryder Cup), Bay Hill tests distance and accuracy nearly equally. Give me a balanced skill profile at Bay Hill, with a more focused emphasis on total driving and long iron play over a pure power profile seven days a week and twice on Sunday.

Let’s look at the 10 best players at Bay Hill over the past 15 years:

• Scottie Scheffler

• Tiger Woods

• Bryson DeChambeau

• Rory McIlroy

• Tyrrell Hatton

• Jordan Spieth

• Sungjae Im

• Max Homa

• Francesco Molinari

• Sergio Garcia

Only Bryson, Rory, and Tiger were true bombers. The rest of the list is made of elite approach players with great total driving game and excellent scrambling ability. None of these players are known as elite putters, outside of maybe Im and Spieth at times, yet for the most part, Bay Hill is the toughest tee-to-green test on Tour, and sub-standard tee to green players will be exposed quickly.

Like most U.S. Open venues, Bay Hill is a long irons and total driving course through and through, like most U.S. Open venues, but it’s also a bit of a scrambling and grinder course. Peruse a little farther down the true strokes gained ranking, and we start to run into players like Matt Fitzpatrick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Lucas Herbert, as well as Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth. On the surface, Bay Hill is an incredibly simple handicap. There are three questions to answer, and while a player need not be great in all three, they must at least be elite at one, or above average at all three.

1.    Are you an elite long-iron player? And do you have the strength and apex height to get mid to long irons to stop on firm greens?

2.    Are you a great total driver of the ball? Can you wield an advantage with either elite distance or elite accuracy? Or even better, are you above average at both?

3.    Are you a great scrambler? Can you either chip the ball to tap in range consistently out of thick rough, or make a very high percentage of four to eight footers on fast, grainy Bermuda greens? Have you had success on courses with firm greens and thick rough?

The setting to watching these questions may not be the most inspiring (terrible, flat land, copious water hazards, a golf course surrounded by houses), yet the players who are the best at answering these tend to be really good golfers, and all PGA Tour courses should be striving for a similar model.

The golf course has played easier the last two years under softer conditions with little wind, but I do not believe we have a #NotMyHonda situation on our hands to be worried about. It was extremely firm in 2020 and 2022, and I’m not sure that Tour organizers will ever let the course that close to the edge again, but this area of Florida has remained relatively dry, and there is very little rain in the forecast for tournament week. Even more encouraging is the fact that at least Thursday and Sunday look incredibly windy. My tentative guess is 2021 scoring conditions (+1.09) when Bryson won at 11 under par, but be sure to stay updated with the Discord for weather updates. We’ll be locked in as always!

Stats

Off the Tee

Last year, driving distance was 287.7 yards, 4.7 yards below Tour average, and driving accuracy was 58.9%, 0.2% above Tour average. Bay Hill certainly has become more driver-heavy over the last couple of years, but it is not a course where you can bomb away with reckless abandon, and we are still looking at a 68.6% driver usage percentage.

Last year, Bay Hill ranked 5th out of 43 courses in SG: OTT and each of the last 3 years, it has ranked top-five in this category. It features the 13th-most narrow fairways to hit on Tour, so they are not so narrow to the point of Oak Hill, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines where players just throw their hands up and bomb driver everywhere, and the missed fairway penalty is significant as well. This is how you actually test accuracy on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill ranks 10th out of 43 courses in missed fairway penalty, third in rough penalty and 11th in fraction of penalty strokes that miss the fairway. Thus, unlike Torrey Pines, players can yield a significant advantage with accurate driving, and due to the water-heavy nature, small misses are penalized less than big misses, and accurate drives in the fairway are tremendously rewarded.

Bay Hill is not a pure bomb-and-gauge course. The Bermuda rough is more challenging than at a track like Winged Foot, Oak Hill, or even Torrey Pines, so the optimal skill-set is really a combination of above average distance and accuracy. Bay Hill reminds me quite a bit of Marco Simone off the tee. Distance is incredibly important, but Bay Hill always ranks in the top 15 in rough penalty and percentage of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. Last year, there was a clear roadmap to success via elite off-the-tee play, and four of the top-5 players ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee. Scottie Scheffler ranked first in this field in strokes gained off the tee while certainly doing it more with power than accuracy, ranking 12th in distance and 38th in accuracy, Clark ranked 4th in distance and 47th in accuracy, but Lowry and Zalatoris ranked top-3 in accuracy and outside the top 15 in distance. Players can gain a huge advantage with either distance or accuracy, which is why I’m looking at both recent OTT play, carry distance, distance from the center of the fairway, and strokes gained off the tee on long courses with thick rough. In my specific Bay Hill total driving models, the players most equipped to navigate the distinctive driving test at Bay Hill are Davis Thompson, Scottie Scheffler, Robert MacIntyre, Sungjae Im, and Patrick Cantlay. 

Approach

Bay Hill is one of the toughest approach courses on the PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has ranked top-five in approach difficulty. Every year, it features a greens-in-regulation percentage lower than 60%, ranking inside the top 10 in this category.

Bay Hill is far from a second shot course. In fact, it’s one of the most important driving courses on the entire PGA Tour. Yet player can still get away with sub-standard driving if they are an elite long iron player, particularly out of the rough. In 2022 and 2023, Scheffler and Kitayama ranked outside the top 40 in strokes gained off the tee but made up for it with elite long iron play. Last year, however, Scheffler ranked first in strokes gained off the tee and around the green play, further proving the three-pronged methodology at Bay Hill, and the necessity to be elite at one of the three tee to green categories, or above average at all three.

This is a great week to compare general long-iron play with long-iron play out of the rough and overall approach play with approach play on firm greens. With four par threes playing over 200 yards, five par fours playing over 450 yards, and at least three reachable par fives, Bay Hill is one of the most long-iron-dependent courses on the PGA Tour, and players will need to hit the ball high to be able to get their long irons to stop on these incredibly firm greens.

Proximity

The best long iron players in this field are Nicolai Hojgaard, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover, Sungjae Im, and Robert MacIntyre.

The best long iron players in this field on courses with thick rough are Lucas Glover, Joel Dahmen, Maverick McNealy, Ludvig Aberg, and Daniel Berger.

Around the Green

Short game is certainly important at Bay Hill, but it’s clearly third in line after long iron play and total driving, and by a comfortable margin. My model reflects this. Around-the-green play still represents the smallest component of the strokes gained by, but not by a margin as much as other golf courses. There are two reasons why around the green play matters at certain tournaments: volume and degree of difficulty. Bay Hill checks both boxes.

Last year, Bay Hill ranked eighth out of 43 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and historically, it ranks harder in this category than Tour average. Yet still, it’s hack it out rough, and short game and putting degree of difficulty is still lower than driving and approach play at Bay Hill. Last year, Bay Hill ranked eighth out of 43 courses in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, fifth from the bunkers, and 18th from the fairways. Bay Hill features some of the thickest greenside rough on the PGA Tour, and this “Hack it Out” requires a different technique that many would argue is easier (if not more random) than chipping out of short grass. For this reason, I have a standard weight on around-the-green play at Bay Hill. It certainly matters based on volume, and the fact that the field is just hitting fewer greens than they normally do. Yet, short game skill is also often diminished at golf courses with thick greenside rough, which plays right into my Viktor Hovland theory. (More on this later.) The best players in this field on courses with thick rough (Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, etc) have been Davis Thompson, Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, and Min Woo Lee.

Putting

Last year, Bay Hill ranked 17th out of 43 courses in putting difficulty, and it generally ranks harder than average in this category, but again, short game and putting is far easier than driving and approach play at this golf course. Bay Hill ranked 19th in difficulty inside five feet, 23rd from five to 15 feet, and 12th from 15 feet-plus.

Bay Hill is a difficult putting course solely because the greens are incredibly fast and feature grain. The greens are also extremely flat and feature very limited contouring. I have a below-average weight on putting this week as Bay Hill is not typically a golf course where players can sun run on the greens. It’s simply too challenging from tee to green, so much of the separation is creating via ball-striking. Of course, there will always still be a player every year with sub-standard ball-striking that gets crazy hot on the greens. In 2022, it was Lucas Herbert. In 2023, it was Harris English. Last year, it was Brendon Todd. I have a lower-than-average weight on putting, but there will still certainly still be one player who cracks the fast Bermuda code.

The best fast green putters in this field are Harris English, Thomas Detry, Denny McCarthy, Wyndham Clark, and Maverick McNealy.

The best Bermuda putters in this field are Sam Burns, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Eric Cole, and Harris English.

Scoring Stats

As has been par for the course throughout the Florida Swing, I wanted to identify the best Florida players in this field, who have been Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, and Max Homa.

Similar to Torrey Pines, Bay Hill is another golf course that firmly falls in the “Long and Difficult” bucket, and it is certainly a golf course where players such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg will begin on second base due to their elite driving ability and long-iron play. The best players in this field on long and difficult golf courses over the last three years have been Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood.

Comp Courses/Course History

Bay Hill features the third-highest correlation of course history on the PGA Tour behind Riviera and Augusta National. Still, outliers exist. Kurt Kitayama won on his first appearance two years ago. Bay Hill is a very specific style of golf course that caters to a very specific style of skill-set: long iron play and total driving. The course history correlation is more a result of how Bay Hill does such a solid job of weeding out players who do not have this skillset than it is a reflection of the nuance and strategy of the course. The best players in this field at Bay Hill have been Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Max Homa.

Just like we discussed at Torrey Pines, Bay Hill is firmly part of the Big Five, along with Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, and Riviera. These are the five longest, most difficult, elevated events on the PGA Tour schedule. The weeks feel different, and all five courses (to varying degrees) emphasize power off the tee and long-iron play. In my personal opinion, Bay Hill is closest to Muirfield Village in required skill-set than Torrey, Quail Hollow, and Riviera, but all five experience a ton of leaderboard crossover. The best players in this field at the Big Five have been Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, and Patrick Cantlay.

Other golf courses with incredibly thick greenside rough and narrow fairways that stood out to me were Olympia Fields, Winged Foot, and Oak Hill, although none are regular stops on the PGA Tour. The best players in this field at this trio of Thick Rough Monsters have been Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, and Xander Schauffele.

Model

Off the Tee (22%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L50 Carry Distance (6%)

• L50 Distance from the Center of the Fairway (5%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (6%)

• L2 Years Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Long Golf Courses, Thick Rough (5%)

Approach (31%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Approach (12%)

• L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (5%)

• L75 Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)

• L2 Years Proximity 200 yards plus: Thick Rough Courses (4%)

Around the Green (10%) (PGA Tour average: 10%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Around the Green (6%)

• L2 Years Strokes Gained Around the Green: Thick Rough Courses (4%)

Putting (12%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting Bermuda (7%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting Fast Greens (5%)

Scoring Stats (9%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: Florida (4%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Total: Long and Difficult Golf Courses (5%)

Comp Courses/Course History (16%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 Bay Hill (9%)

• L50 The Big Four: Riviera, Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village (5%)

• L24 Long, Narrow, Thick Rough: Oak Hill, Olympia Fields, Winged Foot (2%)

Model Top 20

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Xander Schauffele

4. Sungjae Im

5. Viktor Hovland

6. Patrick Cantlay

7. Hideki Matsuyama

8. Ludvig Aberg

9. Tommy Fleetwood

10. Russell Henley

11. Adam Scott

12. Maverick McNealy

13. Ben Griffin

14. Justin Thomas

15. Tony Finau

16. Matt Fitzpatrick

17. Collin Morikawa

18. Keegan Bradley

19. Shane Lowry

20. Denny McCarthy

Player Profile: Viktor Hovland

It’s been a tough 2025 for Viktor Hovland, on top of what was already a disappointing 2024. Yet back when Viktor Hovland was Viktor Hovland, Bay Hill represented the perfect golf course for his skill-set. I believe I have bet Hovland every year at Bay Hill for three years straight, and I can almost certainly guarantee I will be receiving a discount on my yearly investment. Bay Hill and Muirfield Village are the best overall tests of driving on the PGA Tour when combining distance and accuracy, and when Hovland is at his best, his combination of power and precision is second to none. The best version of Hovland is an elite long iron player as well, and he still ranks second in this field in long iron proximity over the last 12 months. While you will never catch me riding for Hovland’s short game, it is not a coincidence that many of his best performances have come on golf courses with thick rough, whether it be Bay Hill, Oak Hill, Muirfield Village, Torrey Pines, or Olympia Fields. The around the green shots at Bay Hill are not actually hard. What makes short game matter at Bay Hill is sheer volume (low greens in regulation percentage), and degree of difficulty. I’m not sure whether Hovland is simply more comfortable with the hack out motion and technique of chipping on these golf courses with thick greenside rough, but the results speak for themselves. While it’s been rough start to the season for Hovland, there have been some encouraging signs of life. Even in a missed cut, Hovland gained strokes in both ball-striking categories and Torrey Pines, and with two weeks more of practice and fine tuning under his belt, I’m expecting his best performance of the season at Bay Hill.