2025 Farmer's Insurance Open Final Thoughts

Weather

The drier conditions this week should balance out the lack of wind to create similar scoring conditions to what we saw last year. I mean, we are talking not a breath of wind in the forecast. If you really wanted to reach, you could suggest that the players finishing their round very late on Friday afternoon may get more breeze for their final two or three holes, but I wouldn’t be overly concerned there. With that being said, the course conditions of the actual turf should be more challenging this year. San Diego has received exponentially less rain than last year, which should yield firmer fairways and greens and a lower driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation percentage. Still, someone should get to 13 under. I don’t personally care whether they play the North or South course first, just make sure to fade the South course at all costs if you are playing showdown.

Winning Score Prediction: -13

Core

Sungjae Im, $10,000: Sungjae Im truly broke my heart last week. I never sweat too much on losing weeks, because I know I play aggressively in a way that is conducive to big swings and losing stretches. Yet I wanted to deliver for everyone bad last week, and I put far more pressure on myself than anyone else could. I probably went back to autopsy my decision-making process last week more than I have in any given week over the last four years, and while it still left me in a pretzel, there were some important takeaways. I felt like I have abandoned my roots in game theory over the first three weeks of the season and become a slave to my numbers, when at the end of the day, both are equal parts important. The fact of the matter is that the first two months of any season are the least sharp my model is ever going to be. I am still working with a large sample size from tournaments that happened months ago instead of weeks ago, and I have very limited data on some of the Korn Ferry Tour grads as well. This should be the time in the year more than ever to rely on game theory and fade the highest-owned players on principle. In fairness, playing Justin Thomas over Sungjae Im last week wasn’t a pivot. It was the right decision, but playing someone who is within four percentage points of ownership isn’t a leverage pivot. The difference there is negligible. And yes, I still made out like a bandit with Justin Thomas in One and Done, and I had gone all in on JT in DraftKings due to his superior iron play, it would have only been to give more credence to the over-hanging narrative of recent approach play which also bolstered my confidence in Tony Finau, another failure.

I could work my brain into a pretzel 17 times trying to identify why my actual picks haven’t been up to my standards when I believe my process for breaking down golf courses is as bulletproof and evolved as it ever has been. Yet at the end of the day, the results are the results, and I simply need to be better. I don’t believe that fading Ludvig this week is an abandonment at all in my process or playing scared, but looking back at my cores from the beginning of 2024, when I essentially did not have a core play miss the cut for six months straight, I simply took more shots and trusted my foundational belief in the perfect marriage between data and game theory. I don’t know if it was the pressure of delivering for all the subscribers in the first couple of weeks that got to me, but I felt like I was playing too safe. Instead of playing to win, I was playing not to lose. In going back to Sungjae and Finau this week, I feel like I’m re-positioning myself as someone who is playing to win. I loved both players last week for a reason, and while Torrey Pines is a demonstrably different golf course than the Stadium Course, their fit at the former is just as strong at the latter. Sungjae truly had one disaster round at the Stadium Course and shot a combined 11 strokes under par across Friday and Saturday, when he had every excuse to throw the towel in. He’s far too well-rounded of a player to not rebound in this spot, and at this price and ownership, it’s a risk I’m willing to take seven days a week.

Will Zalatoris, $9,500: While my three other plays are rooted heavily in game theory, Will Zalatoris is probably my most obvious core play of the group, and I think it’s important to check myself before falling too far back into extremes. I absolutely love Zalatoris at Torrey Pines, and while I was too hesitant to jump on the 28/1 or even 25/1, this is a community bet that I have a difficult time arguing with. I personally believe that he is a far better bet just to play well than he is in to win, and his level of tee-to-green play actually yields a much higher floor than he gets credit for (Zalatoris rarely misses cuts at long and difficult golf courses when he’s healthy.) And that is the key word here: healthy. This is the healthiest and strongest that Zalatoris has been in two years, and I remain bullish on a huge bounce-back year in 2025 that may even result in a U.S. Open victory (shoutout 100/1.) On the ownership piece, Day’s strong result last week, Keegan’s recent form, and the masculine urge to play Sahith Theegala on the West Coast will keep ownership in check. He may be a popular bet at 28/1, but I expect Taylor Pendrith to be more highly owned, and Zalatoris is still a far superior DraftKings play in my opinion. The one-time PGA Tour winner ranks top-seven in this field in strokes gained total at Torrey Pines, strokes gained total at the comp courses, strokes gained total on long and difficult golf courses, and strokes gained total in California. He’s coming off a 12th-place finish at a golf course that is a far worse fit for his skill-set, and I watched him up close nearly take Luke List down in a playoff just a few years ago. My anchor that hopefully provides some much needed stability in a pool of chaos.

Si Woo Kim, $8,400: Going back to what got me here with players like Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, and Doug Ghim. All are uncomfortable clicks and present tremendous leverage opportunities compared to their similarly priced peers. All have elite approach upside, strong course history, and underrated recent form. I played Si Woo Kim last week at the American Express, and boy was it a journey. Kim ultimately finished at 11-under par in a tie for 51st place, shooting 6-under at La Quinta Country Club and the Jack Nicklaus Tournament and 5-under in two rounds at the Stadium Course. In his Sunday round, Kim started off 6-over through his first six holes, before proceeding to birdie eight of his next 11 holes and getting in the clubhouse with a score of one-under par. Bogeys are fixable, but you can’t teach that birdie-making ability, and his irons stats are heavily skewed by the fact that he lost over six strokes on approach in two holes on Sunday. Now Kim returns to a golf course where he has finished top-25 in his last two appearances, and his mid- to long-iron play has yielded a sneaky strong track of record of success on long and difficult golf courses. Let’s swing for the fences here.

Doug Ghim, $7,700: Very similar to Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim certainly presents a great deal of potential frustration and volatility due to how south his putter can go, but I am still bullish on the long-term upside and believe a PGA Tour winner is in there somewhere. Ghim is another player I was heavy on last week at the American Express, and he rewarded us with 22nd-place finish where he shot -3 in two rounds at the Stadium Course and -12 at La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. Once again, the upside was there. Ghim opened his second round with five birdies and his first six holes, and I’ve noticed steady improvement around the greens from him as well. Ghim has garnered a ton of market support as well, opening up as -220 in a matchup against Justin Rose, which I find to be quite telling. I would probably bet Rose at that price as well, but I do believe that something might be happening right now with the highly touted Texas grad, who was once a collegiate standout and has yet to fulfill his potential on the PGA Tour.

Pool

• Tony Finau, $10,200

• Sungjae Im, $10,000

• Will Zalatoris, $9,500

• Shane Lowry, $9,000

• Maverick McNealy, $8,900

• Max Homa, $8,600

• Si Woo Kim, $8,400

• Thomas Detry, $7,900

• Doug Ghim, $7,700

• Patrick Rodgers, $7,500

• Michael Thorbjornsen, $7,400

• Harris English, $7,300

• Sam Stevens, $7,300

• Gary Woodland, $7,200

• Michael Kim, $7,200

• Henrik Norlander, $7,000

• Jacob Bridgeman, $7,000

• Lee Hodges, $7,000

• Joseph Bramlett, $6,900

• Lanto Griffin, $6,900

• S.H. Kim, $6,600

Betting Card

Outrights (1U total)

Ludvig Aberg (12/1) (0.615U) (win: 7.4)

Taylor Pendrith (35/1) (0.225U) (win: 7.9)

Aaron Rai (60/1) (0.12U) (win: 7.2)

Joseph Bramlett (200/1) (0.04U) (win: 8)

Matchups (1U)

Tony Finau (-120) over Max Greyserman

Top 10 (1U)

Ludvig Aberg (+130)

Top 20

Keegan Bradley (+125) (1U)

Jason Day (+130) (1U)

Taylor Pendrith (+140) (1U)

Aaron Rai (+220) (0.5U)

Joseph Bramlett (+450) (0.5U)

OAD

Sahith Theegala

2024-2025

Outrights: -9.45U

Positionals: -8.75U

Matchups: +6.46U

Total: -11.74U

2023-2024 (2023 Procore - 2024 Tour Championship)

Outrights: +30.4U

Matchups: +5.42U

Positionals: +28.54U

Total: +64.36U

ROI: 313.4U Risk, +64.36U won, 20.5% ROI