The Players Championship: 2025 Course Preview

The PGA Tour returns to the swamp for its flagship event, the All-Caps PLAYERS Championship. This event now features the highest purse in golf, a whopping 25 million, which has doubled since 2019. The field consists of 144 players and remains the strongest non-major championship field of the year. The host venue is the iconic TPC Sawgrass, designed by Pete Dye in 1980. Scottie Scheffler will look to become the first player in its 40-year history to win three Players Championships in a row after becoming the first player to successfully defend his title. He will be joined by the best that the PGA Tour has to offer, including former champions Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Adam Scott, and Rickie Fowler, as well as Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa, among others.

Former Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20) over Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark (-19)

• Winner Odds: Scheffler (+550)

• Scoring Average: -0.72

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17) over Tyrrell Hatton (-12)

• Winner Odds: Scheffler (10/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.07

2022: Cameron Smith (-13) over Anirban Lahiri 

• Winner Odds: Smith (33/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.35

2021: Justin Thomas (-14) over Lee Westwood (-13)

• Winner Odds: Thomas (20/1)

• Scoring Average: +0.13

2019: Rory McIlroy (-16) over Jim Furyk (-15)

• Winner Odds: McIlroy (12/1)

• Scoring Average: -0.53

The Basics

• Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

• Golf Course: TPC Sawgrass 

• Par/Length: Par 72; 7,352 yards

• Designer: Pete Dye (1980)/Steve Wenzloff 

• Fairways: Champion Rye-grass over-seed 

• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda-grass with Poa Trivialis Overseed, measuring 5,500 square feet

• Rough: Champion Fine Rye-grass Over-seed 

• Hazards: Water comes into play on 17 holes 

Golf Course

TPC Sawgrass is one of the most iconic and recognizable courses in the world, and it is also one that has undergone many transformations. The No. 1 point to highlight is that this tournament was played in mid-March for its first 30 years. Between 2007 and 2018 it moved to May before returning to March in 2019. Since the return to March, Rye-grass and fescue have been added to the fairways and rough, and Poa Trivialis over-seed has been added to the greens. This change actually makes the golf course easier, which Rory McIlroy sums up well. “And then when you miss the greens, you’re not having to contend with that Bermuda, you’re not having to guess, how this is going to come out, whatever. So it lends itself to my aggressive play.”

The addition of Rye-grass and fescue mitigates a lot of the unpredictability of Bermuda, and the Poa over-seed on the greens roll far more consistently as well. This is the same type of over-seed that we see at PGA National, Harbour Town, Innisbrook, etc. and it should come as no surprise that lesser putters have found success on this surface, as it is like putting on carpet and takes grain out of the equation.

As well as the over-seed in 2019, there were also some notable changes to the design of the course in 2017. All of the bunkers were rebuilt, while green complexes on 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, and 14 were modified and enlarged to allow for more pin positions. Similar to what we wrote about last week in terms of before Chris Flynn and after Chris Flynn, I would tread lightly in looking too deeply at Sawgrass data prior to 2019. Here's Justin Thomas on the changes: "Well, I think as well as I was starting to learn it, it got switched to March, so I kind of had to re-learn it. I really, really love this place in May and how firm and fast it would play, and I felt like it was not many drivers. I used a 2-iron at this event and I just would get it on the ground a lot and really just focus on hitting the ball in the fairway. I'm still clearly focused on hitting the ball in the fairway because this is a course that, if you drive it well, being in March, it's always going to be softer, the fairways and greens, and you can make so many birdies out here." TPC Sawgrass is still a club-down course, but with the over-seed, players can now be a little more aggressive attacking this course with a driver under softer conditions and less unpredictable rough.

Last year, the golf course saw uncharacteristically soft conditions and little wind, and we saw our lowest scoring average (-0.72) in a decade. I would not be over-alarmed by this, as we should expect both firmer and windier conditions this year. It is also encouraging that tournament organizers decided to take some action in at least making an active effort to push back against modern technology. Four holes, No. 2, 6, 11, and 16, were lengthened, and three of these holes are par fives. In total, 77 yards were added to the scorecard, which will still have a negligible effect on scoring, but if anything, players will at least have slightly longer clubs on their second shot when attacking the three-shot holes.

The other piece to highlight is that the GSCAA sheet is reporting four-inch rough instead of 3.5 inches this year, which should only increase an already robust missed fairway penalty. The Jacksonville area has also been dry this year, and we should see moderate winds as well. Add this to already thicker rough and lengthening of holes, and I’m expecting some positive regression on scoring, which should more closely resemble 2023, if not 2022, when the course played +0.35 strokes over par and Cameron Smith won at -13 under par. I’m going to roll with a -15 winning score prediction and a scoring average of +0.2, which falls somewhere in between 2023 and 2022 in difficulty. Yet as always, follow along in the Discord for updates, as we will have wall-to-wall on course reporting from the grounds all week.

In terms of the big picture, TPC Sawgrass is an incredibly high-variance course, and as we have seen at PGA National and Bay Hill, no great play is safe. It's a thinking man's golf course that needs to be picked apart strategically, and while experience and know-how matters, unlike Augusta, it does not feature a strong correlation to course history due to amount of water in play. While one of the hardest courses on Tour to predict, accuracy off the tee, historical performance on short, positional courses, and most importantly, recent approach play remains the most correlated pathway to success.

Stats

Off the Tee

Last year, driving distance at TPC Sawgrass was 288.0, 4.3 yards below Tour average, with a driving accuracy percentage of 60.4%. Historically, TPC Sawgrass has been one of the most accuracy-over-distance biased courses on Tour, and if anything, that correlation will only increase with thicker rough and firmer conditions this year.

Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked fourth out of 43 courses in off the tee difficulty, and each of the last four years, it has ranked inside the top four in this category. The copious amount of water on this golf course makes it one of the toughest driving tests on Tour, even if it allows players to club down with less than driver. Longer players are still advantaged as those who are able to club down and still maintain distance with less-than-driver clubs, but this is not a golf course that can be purely over-powered given the claustrophobic pinch points and high missed fairway penalty. Yet driver usage percentage shot WAY up last year under easier conditions to 67% last year, which is exactly at Tour average. This is the highest in recorded Sawgrass history, and for context, it was 48% in 2022. I would still expect see some regression in the driver usage category, but the advantage that players who are accurate with their drivers (SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER) cannot be understated. Scheffler has ranked 1st and 5th off the tee each of the last two years, and his ability to thread the needle with driver has been an insane advantage, as the two-time Masters champion ranked 1st in driving accuracy and 14th in distance last year.

Even though it’s a short golf course where players can theoretically club down to find fairways, this is not a week to de-value strokes gained off the tee. Players can gain a significant advantage with long and straight driving this week, and hitting fairways on this course is at a premium like few other tracks on Tour. This week, I will be looking at a combination of off-the-tee performance on similar courses with high water danger and a high missed fairway penalty, recent off-the-tee play, and distance to the edge of the fairway, an exclusive stat to the Rabbit Hole that is a far more actionable way of measuring accuracy. The most accurate drivers of the ball in this field are Tom Kim, Aaron Rai, Russell Henley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Collin Morikawa.

Approach

Last year, TPC Sawgrass featured a greens-in-regulation percentage of 64.9%, which is higher than average in an uncharacteristically easy year. Last year, it ranked eighth out of 43 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked top-10 in this category.

Proximity

Distance	Shot Frequency	Tour Average
Inside 100 Yards	9.1%	9.0%
100-125 Yards	15.0%	10.3%
125-150 Yards	17.3%	17.0%
150-175 Yards	17.2%	22%
175-200 Yards	12.8%	17.5%
200 Yards-Plus	27.5%	25.9%

TPC Sawgrass features a very even distribution of approach shots, which is just one of the things that makes this golf course so great. I would favor overall recent approach play over any lone proximity bucket, but I’d also give an added bump to long-iron play this week with the lengthening of the par five holes. Recent approach form remains the strongest indicator of success at TPC Sawgrass, and this even has historically been dominated by the best approach players in the world, with Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas coming to mind as two Players merchants who are elite overall approach players with an added short game to boot. If you are living and dying by one metric this week, it should still be recent approach play.

Around the Green

Short game remains one of the most underrated keys to success at TPC Sawgrass, and under harder conditions this year, I only expect its correlation to increase. Each of the last 5 years, around-the-green play has ranked nearly the same as off-the-tee play in terms of the strokes gained pie. In terms of degree of difficulty, TPC Sawgrass is one of the most sneakily difficult chipping courses on the PGA Tour. It ranks 7th in recent ARG play and it has historically ranked as one of the top 10 in this category every single year. It ranks 9th out of 43 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 5th the rough, and 8th from the bunkers.

In 2021, every single player in the top 15 gained strokes around the green. In 2022, every single player in the top eight gained strokes around the green. In 2023, 15 of the top 20 gained strokes around the green, and Scottie won leading the field in this category. Last year, nine of the top 12 players on the leaderboard ranked top-25 in strokes gained around the green. I have a higher-than-standard weight on around-the-green play this week, and the players with the best overall short games over the past six months have been Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Mackenzie Hughes, Min Woo Lee, and C.T. Pan.

Putting

The Players Championship is not a putting contest. Under its easiest conditions in a decade last year, it was not a putting contest, and it certainly won’t be one this year. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 19th out of 45 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and as expected, the course has been trending easier in putting since the over-seed. Last year, it ranked 17th from inside five feet, 22nd from 5 to 15 feet, and 19th from greater than 15 feet. It’s not one of the easiest putting courses on Tour, and these may still be the best greens that Pete Dye has ever constructed from an internal contouring standpoint, yet putting will always be the easiest aspect of TPC Sawgrass.

It has played less of a role in the strokes gained pie than approach play for winner, top-five, top-10, and top-20 finishers, as this tournament is won and lost with tee-to-green play every single year. Scheffler ranked outside of the top 35 in putting each of the last two years while winning, and in 2023, no one in the top-five even finished top-10 in putting. I’ll still look at the best over-seeded Bermuda putters, but I am certainly under-weight on putting this week compared to other metrics. The best over-seed Bermuda putters in this field over the last three years have been Sam Ryder, Matt Kuchar, Thomas Detry, Brian Harman, and Sam Burns.

Scoring Stats

As we have discussed the past two weeks, Sawgrass is a Florida course through and through, and I will be looking closely at the players who have had the most success in this part of the country. The best players in this field in Florida over the last five years have been Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, and Corey Conners.

Similarly, water comes into play on 17 holes at TPC Sawgrass. Along with courses such as TPC Twin Cities and PGA National, the Pete Dye design is one of the most water-intensive courses on Tour, and it annually ranks inside the top 10 in penalty strokes per round. The best players in this field on water-heavy courses over the last three years have been Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIrloy, Tony Finau, and Shane Lowry.

TPC Sawgrass might be the most influential pro golf course that has ever been built, and as a result there are so many golf courses on the PGA TOUR that have fingerprints of TPC Sawgrass all over. It, in terms of design, setup, and philosophy, it features the most copied architecture maybe in the history of pro golf. It’s hard to say that Sawgrass is just like short, positional courses, or just like all Pete Dye courses, or Florida Bermuda courses. Yet for example, there is so much TPC Sawgrass in Muirfield Village, in terms of the way those two golf courses play off the tee with a cascading missed fairway penalty of small misses and large misses penalized, and the design of the par fives. For this reason, I wanted to create my own comp course model this week, which I call the Sawgrass Finger Prints. This includes TPC River Highlands, Innisbrook, TPC Twin Cities, Muirfield Village, East Lake, Sea Island, El Camaleon, TPC Southwind, PGA West, Austin Country Club, TPC Potomac, and Colonial. The best players at these courses have been Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Sam Burns.

Comp Courses/Course History

TPC Sawgrass features some of the least predictive history on the PGA TOUR, which is largely because it’s such a variance-filled golf course. It’s very hard to show up here and perform based on institutional knowledge, as the Pete Dye design is too exposing of an execution test. This is why we very rarely ever see a player who performs well here every single year. Before Scottie won back-to-back players, he missed the cut and finished 55th in his first two appearances, and even the best Players performers of the past decade (Hideki, Si Woo, Sergio) have at least a stinker in there too. Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele are great TPC Sawgrass performers, yet they have missed four of their last 8 cuts here. Nothing at Sawgrass is guaranteed, but it’s not that experience isn’t relevant. Last year, Ludvig was the only first-timer who really played well at all. Every single player in the top 10 last year had all played in at least three Players Championships. It is very rare for a player to contend on their first appearance, Conclusion: Experience matters, and I would be wary with first-timers. Yet even players with poor course history suddenly figure out this golf course all the time, with Xander, Hatton, Scottie, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sahith Theegala, and Maverick McNealy all being recent examples that had struggled quite a bit previously at the Players before finishing top-10 last year. The best Players performers over the past five years have been Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, and Xander Schauffele.

We have already highlighted a bunch of similar courses in the Sawgrass Finger Prints model, yet there are three golf courses that stand in their own tier as the primary comps: PGA National (over-seeded!), Harbour Town (over-seeded!), and Sedgefield (which may have the most in common with Sawgrass from a required skill-set standpoint.) The best players in this field at the primary comps have been Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Adam Scott, and Billy Horschel.

Model

Off the Tee (20%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee Recent (7%)

• L50 Distance from the Edge of Fairway (8%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Water Heavy (5%)

Approach (32%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Approach Recent (14%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Approach Small Greens (3%)

• L75 Proximity 100-150 yards (10%)

• L75 Proximity 200 yards (5%)

Around the Green (13%) (PGA Tour average: 10%)

• L50 Strokes Gained Around the Green (9%)

• L50 Sand Save Percentage (4%)

Putting (11%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa Trivialis Over-seed (5%)

• L50 Putting Five to 10 Ft (3%)

• L50 Putting 10-15 Ft (3%)

Scoring Stats (14%) (PGA Tour average)

• L5 Years Strokes Gained Total: Florida (3%)

• L3 Strokes Gained Ball-striking: Water Heavy (4%)

• L3 Years Sawgrass ‘Finger Prints’ (7%)

Comp Courses/Course History (10%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 TPC Sawgrass (5%)

• L36 Main Comps: Sedgefield, Harbour Town, PGA National (5%)

Model Top 20

• Scottie Scheffler

• Justin Thomas

• Russell Henley

• Rory McIlroy

• Tommy Fleetwood

• Patrick Cantlay

• Hideki Matsuyama

• Xander Schauffele

• Collin Morikawa

• Daniel Berger

• Sepp Straka

• Si Woo Kim

• Sungjae Im

• Doug Ghim

• Adam Scott

• Shane Lowry

• Brian Harman

• Ben Griffin

• Tom Kim

• Lucas Glover

Player Profile: Adam Svensson

Since I’m currently still lost about how I want to tackle the top of the board, let’s highlight a player in the 5K range who I do not believe will receive the same type of love as OUR Doug Ghim. I always play Adam Svensson on short, positional golf courses, as he is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field. Outside of a prior 13th at TPC Sawgrass, Svensson has also recorded multiple top-15 finishes at Sedgefield and PGA National. Outside of his accuracy off the tee, Svensson is a great middle-iron player who has performed strongly on Bermuda and in the Southeast in the past, with a prior win at the RSM Classic as well. While I’m worried about the content stealers getting their mittens on Doug Ghim this week, maybe we can keep Adam Svensson as our little secret.