2025 RBC Heritage Course Preview

There's always a natural exhale after The Masters, which makes the decision to host a Signature Event in the following week that much more confounding. I understand this from a geography standpoint. I made the drive myself from Augusta to Hilton Head last year. It's certainly not inconvenient. Yet at the same time, doesn't this feel like the perfect week to host the Zurich Classic? Let fans exhale, miss real competition for a week, and then position your 'Signature Event' as a return to serious golf.

Of course, that would make far too much sense, but I'm a bit disappointed that what should be one of the PGA Tour's strongest events of the season is in such a natural letdown spot. Harbour Town is an awesome golf course, and it will be fun to watch the best players in the world navigate a course that will diminish their greatest weapons (powerful driving and long iron play). We will once again see the best that the PGA Tour has to offer, excluding Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama, tested at an iconic Pete Dye track that now brings an enjoyably low-key, yet borderline sleepy atmosphere.

 Former Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-19) over Sahith Theegala (-16)

• Winner Odds: Scheffler (+450)

• Scoring Average: -1.65

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17) over Jordan Spieth (-17) (Playoff)

• Winner Odds: Fitzpatrick (30/1)

• Scoring Average: -0.83

2022: Jordan Spieth (-13) over Patrick Cantlay (-13) (Playoff)

• Winner Odds: Spieth (35/1)

• Scoring Average: -0.55

2021: Stewart Cink (-19) over Emiliano Grillo (-15)

• Winner Odds: Cink (125/1)

• Scoring Average: -0.55

2020: Webb Simpson (-22) over Abraham Ancer (-21)

• Winner Odds: Simpson (28/1)

• Scoring Average: -2.06

The Basics

• Course: Harbour Town Golf Links

• Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina

• Designer: Pete Dye & Jack Nicklaus (1969)

• Par/Length: Par 71; 7,191 yards

• Hazards: 18 individual water hazards (not all really come into play)

• Fairways: Celebration Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Perennial Rye-grass, measuring 29 yards wide on average

• Rough: Celebration Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Perennial Rye-grass, 0.75 inches

• Greens: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis, running 11 to 11.5 on the stimp and measuring 3,700 square feet on average

Golf Course

Harbour Town Golf Links was one of Pete Dye's first creations, and it laid the template for short, positional, strategic architecture where distance was not a pre-requisite to test professional golfers. Over the last 50 years, Harbour Town has held up surprisingly well to the advancements in technology and athleticism that have shaped the modern game. Neither a birdie-fest, nor one of the most challenging courses on Tour, Harbour Town generally plays middle of the pack in terms of difficulty each year, with a little room for leeway in either direction depending on turf conditions and wind.

The course was extended in 2022 with the two par fives on the front side getting a bit of added length, a necessary improvement. The greens were also changed to Poa Trivialis over-seed in 2016, as it now features the same green surfaces as TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC Scottsdale, TPC San Antonio, PGA West, and Austin Country Club. Outside of those few minor changes, the course has remained largely the same in its entire 50-year history as the host venue. We talk often in these articles about short, positional, less-than-driver golf courses, and Harbour Town is truly the best example of this. Featuring narrow fairways that wind their way through Carolina pines, Harbour Town is simply not a golf course that can be bomb-and-gauged to death, and it provides an interesting venue for the best in the world as elite drivers of the ball will be forced to utilize a different roadmap on this track. The name of the game at the devilish Pete Dye design is to position oneself off the tee, which sets up the correct angle to the green.

Ultimately, the formula to success at Harbour Town rests in understanding that this is an entirely different style of golf course from the driver-wedge affairs that we generally see week to week on the PGA Tour. On weeks like these, I am always most concerned with identifying players who consistently raise their baseline on other short, positional golf courses. There are many other courses (Sedgefield, Waialae, TPC Sawgrass, Sea Island, Colonial, TPC River Highlands, etc.) that follow a similar blueprint, and Harbour Town is the most exaggerated version of this. These golf courses all provide little value in a driver-heavy approach based on their heavily doglegged nature, and all feature small greens where the emphasis falls squarely on middle-iron play and putting inside 15 feet. Unsurprisingly, the same players seem to pop up at these golf courses over and over again, and these are the type of events where players such as Kevin Kisner, Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, and Russell Henley feel that they have just as much of a chance as the most powerful drivers, as the latter's greatest weapon will be extracted.

Last year, we saw a very soft and easy golf course and the lowest scoring average we have experienced at this event since 2020. We saw some adverse weather conditions in round four, where players were forced to navigate some wind and rain, but for the first three days of the tournament, the golf course played incredibly soft. I’m expecting a return to more moderate scoring conditions this year and a firmer golf course. There is no rain in the forecast between now and tournament, and some significant wind on Thursday and Saturday of tournament week. A somewhat firmer golf course should yield scoring conditions similar to what we saw in 2023 when Matt Fitzpatrick triumphed at 17 under par and the scoring average was -0.83. This would be the model I follow this week, and I will be placing an outsized weight on recent approach play, short to middle iron proximity, putting from five to 15 feet, and prior performance on other short, positional, less than driver golf courses.

Stats

Off the Tee

Last year, driving distance at Harbour Town was 282.4 yards, 9.9 yards below tour average (it featured the 6th-lowest driving distance on Tour last year), and driving accuracy was 64.8%, 6.1% above Tour average (it featured the 13th-easiest fairways to hit on Tour last year), proving the incredibly positional nature of this golf course. Harbour Town is your dictionary definition club-down golf course that is far too claustrophobic to be bomb and gauged, and it features a driver usage percentage of 52.5%, compared to the PGA Tour average of 67.7%. Like all golf courses, it is trending towards becoming more driver heavy, and the driver usage percentage last year was 59.9%, the highest we’ve seen over the last 5 years, yet it is still far from a course where players can separate with elite power off the tee.

Last year, Harbour Town ranked 10th out of 43 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and each of the last 10 years, it has ranked in the top 10 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, which is essentially just explaining how difficult of a golf course this is to lift and separate with elite driving. Last year, it ranked 36th out of 43 courses in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last 5 years, it has ranked in the bottom-five lowest missed fairway penalties on the PGA Tour. It also ranked 33rd in rough penalty, 25th in non-rough penalty, and 29th in percentage of missed fairway drives that result in a penalty stroke. There is very little difference between hitting the fairway and the rough, but because of the tightness of the property and over-hanging tree limbs, players cannot just bomb away with reckless abandon. In fact, off the tee is largely de-valued here. It’s really a golf course where players just club down to pick their preferred spot in the fairway, while the real way to separate on this golf course is via elite approach play and putting.

Over the last five years, driving accuracy has been less correlated with success than distance, and last year, Cantlay, Sahith and JT all finished top 5 ranking outside of the top 50 in driving accuracy. Distance didn’t really play a role in determining the outcome of the tournament either, but 5 of the top 8 players ranked top-20 in distance while only four of the top 8 players ranked top-20 in accuracy. I still think in theory, I would look to identify players who consistently find the fairway over those who display elite distance, but the evidence now suggests that based on the low missed fairway penalty due to the over-seeded rough, I would rather have solid total drivers of the ball in recent form as opposed to accuracy merchants. In 2023, only one player in the top 6 ranked top-40 in accuracy, and while Scottie led the field in strokes gained off the tee last year, both Fitzpatrick and Spieth the prior year ranked outside of the top 30 in SG: OTT while being outside of the top 50 in accuracy. I will be looking at strokes gained off the tee on less-than-driver courses and overall recent off-the-tee play. I want to identify the players who raise their baseline off the tee on courses that take driver out of one's hands and never stray too far offline. The best players in this field off the tee on less-than-driver courses over the last two years have been Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Stevens, Austin Eckroat, and Davis Thompson.

Approach

With such microscopic greens, Harbour Town features one of the lower greens in regulation percentage on the PGA Tour. Even in soft conditions last year, Harbour Town featured the 12th-most difficult greens to hit on Tour, and it ranked 14th out of 43 courses in approach difficulty.

Proximity

Short to middle iron play is absolutely everything at Harbour Town, with 75% of all approach shots coming between 100 and 200 yards. Just like TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town is a spike approach course above all, and strokes gained approach has played a larger role in the strokes gained pie than all other categories among winners, top-five finishers, top-10 finishers, and top-20 finishers.

The best players in long-term proximity from 100-150 yards have been Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover, and Collin Morikawa.

The best players in long-term proximity between 150-200 yards have been Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Sam Stevens, Lucas Glover, and J.J. Spaun.

Around the Green

Last year, Harbour Town ranked 39th out of 43 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and it has ranked bottom ten in this category every year in the last decade. Quite simply, the Pete Dye design is not a very difficult around the green course whatsoever, but since the GIR% is still below PGA Tour average, around-the-green play at Harbour Town has remained just as correlated with success as driving, and it plays just as big of a role in the strokes gained pie.

Last year, Harbour Town ranked 33rd out of 43 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 39th from the rough, and 36th from the bunkers. Last year, Scheffler and Theegala ranked outside of the top 30 in around the green play, as short game skill is helpful here but far from essential. Driving and around-the-green play are two complimentary skill-sets compared that factor in about 50% of approach and putting in the outcome of this tournament. Just like driving, elite short game is more of a luxury and added bonus than it is a necessity.

The best around-the-green players in the field this year have been Andrew Novak, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Mackenzie Hughes.

Putting

Last year, Harbour Town ranked 31st out of 43 courses in putting difficulty, and it generally ranks middle of the pack in this category despite not featuring overly fast or undulating green complexes on a smooth, grain-less surface. It ranked 40th in putting inside five feet, 27th from five to 15 feet, and 27th from greater than 15 feet.

Harbour Town is not a very difficult putting course overall, as there are certainly some subtle contours to these green complexes, yet over-seeded Bermuda remains an incredibly easy surface to putt on. Considering the greens are so small as well, lag putting is largely de-valued. This is still an easy enough course where elite putting is necessary, but in terms of degree of difficulty, these are some of the more benign greens on Tour. Particularly last year, with a higher greens-in-regulation percentage than usual, it was easier to separate with the putter, and of the top 9 finishers, seven ranked inside the top 20 in putting, with only Scheffler and Cantlay ranking outside the top 20. This is still not as much of a spike putting course as it is a spike approach course, and Spieth and Cantlay both made the playoff here in 2022 ranking outside of the top 45 in putting while ranking inside the top 10 in approach play.

The best putters in this field on over-seeded Bermuda over the last three years have been Denny McCarthy, Thomas Detry, Sam Burns, Maverick McNealy, and Jason Day. The best putters in this field from five to 15 have been Min Woo Lee, Sam Burns, Sami Valimaki, Matthieu Pavon, Brian Campbell, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Scoring Stats

I cover the most important ones in the Comp Course/Course History section, but I wanted to place even more emphasis on the bucket of "Less than Driver" courses. The aforementioned courses are so correlated that they deserve their own specific weight, yet I wanted secondary courses such as Mayakoba, Pebble Beach, TPC River Highlands, TPC Summerlin, and TPC Southwind, etc. to also be accounted for. When you combine every "Less than Driver" course over the last three years, the best players in this field have been Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, and J.T. Poston.

Comp Courses/Course History

Course history is definitely relevant at Harbour Town, although it only ranks 17th in current PGA Tour courses in terms of the correlation of its course history. There is certainly some strategy off the tee, and while we have seen first-timers play well, many of those have been great players since the move to an elevated event. Historically, this has been a course where the same types of players succeed year after year, and prior success on short, positional courses is often even more predictive than form. This is the type of course where certain players just understand how to get around every year, there is some strategy off the tee, and we have seen players like Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau find themselves stifled by the claustrophobic driving corridors. The best players in this field at Harbour Town have been Patrick Cantlay, J.T. Poston, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, and Brian Harman.

One of the most correlated factors to success at Harbour Town is prior performance at other short, positional courses. This is an entirely different style of golf that de-values much of what a player such as Rory McIlroy loves to do. I place even more emphasis on this style of golf (along with a specific weight devoted to Pete Dye in particular) in the "Scoring Stats" section, but there are a few courses that are so highly correlated to Harbour Town that they deserve their own weighting. Let's run through them.

• Innisbrook: Tight, tree-lined, Carolina-style course with the same agronomy. It certainly features more long-iron approach shots than Harbour Town, but nine of the last 13 winners of the Heritage have also finished top-10 at Innisbrook.

• Waialae: Short, positional, mid-iron fest with a ton of leaderboard crossover. A Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, etc. party at both tracks.

• Sea Island: Another really good one. Less than driver, Carolina-style, some wind. Same deal: Webb, Kisner, Kirk, Henley, etc.

• Colonial: Different agronomy, but winding doglegs, short, positional. Driver not necessary. Another playground for the Grillo, Harman, Kisner types.

• Sedgefield: Carolina-style golf again. Winding doglegs, middle irons galore, Webb, Sungjae, Cameron Davis, Kisner, Si Woo Kim. Sedgefield features much larger, more undulating greens, but the objective at both tracks is similar.

• TPC Sawgrass: Pete Dye, same agronomy, short, positional, less than driver, visually intimidating and deceptive. There's far more trouble in play at Sawgrass, but both are Pete Dye, target golf staples. The most similar in terms of the sight-lines and hole shapes for which Pete Dye became famous. Another track that has been incredibly kind to Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Abraham Ancer, Webb, Kuchar, etc.

• TPC River Highlands: Short, positional, Pete Dye, less than driver. Different agronomy but similar character and architecture.

The best players at these seven golf courses over the last five year have been Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, and Viktor Hovland.

Model

Off the Tee (12%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (6%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Less than Driver (6%)

Approach (33%) (PGA Tour average: 28%)

• L36 Strokes Gained Approach (14%)

• L2 Years Strokes Gained Approach: Short Golf Courses (5%)

• L75 Proximity 100-150 yards (6%)

• L75 Proximity 150-200 yards (8%)

Around the Green (9%) (PGA Tour average: 8%)

• L6 Months Strokes Gained Around the Green (9%)

Putting (18%) (PGA Tour average: 18%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Putting: Poa Trivialis (6%)

• L50 Putting 5-10 Feet (6%)

• L50 Putting 10-15 Feet (6%)

Scoring Starts (9%) (PGA Tour average: 14%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Over-seeded Golf Courses (3.5%)

• L3 Years Strokes Gained Total: Short Golf Courses (5.5%)

Comp Courses/Course History (19%) (PGA Tour average: 15%)

• L24 Rounds Harbour Town (7%)

• L75 Rounds Comp Courses (TPC Sawgrass, Colonial, Sea Island, Innisbrook, Waialae, Sedgefield, TPC River Highlands) (12%)

Model Top 20

1. Scottie Scheffler

2. Collin Morikawa

3. Russell Henley

4. Justin Thomas

5. Patrick Cantlay

6. Shane Lowry

7. Sepp Straka

8. Tommy Fleetwood

9. Bud Cauley

10. Corey Conners

11. Brian Harman

12. Daniel Berger

13. Si Woo Kim

14. Lucas Glover

15. Xander Schauffele

16. J.T. Poston

17. Keegan Bradley

18. Ludvig Aberg

19. J.J. Spaun

20. Viktor Hovland

Player Profile: Si Woo Kim

While Si Woo Kim was a huge disappointment at the Valero, I’m going right back to the well this week at the Heritage on another golf course that should suit him to a tee. The former Players Champion has already recorded three top-20 finishes in eight appearances at Harbour Town, including a 18th last year and a runner-up in 2018. He has already hit for the short, positional trifecta with victories at the Sony Open, TPC Sawgrass, and Waialaie, and he has come damn close at Sedgefield and Harbour Town. Quite simply, you play Si Woo Kim at less-than-driver, positional, accuracy-laden, short to middle iron golf courses. His absence at Augusta National last week should be viewed as a positive, as I love that he was not subjected to the mental and emotional grind of everything that Masters week entails. It’s about damn time that Si Woo competed to win a golf tournament, and Harbour Town could not be a more perfect venue for this to come to fruition.